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Pattern Jammin' January

Here is a Christmas gift from the gfs. This could go the the retirement party for the gfs also. ??5AF01A35-19F9-4B5F-83A7-CD1B523434E9.png
 
A 2nd Arctic high plunges down into the SE US 1/3-4 with a 2nd bout of much below cold. Nothing like this degree of cold was on any other recent GFS run all the way to day 16! This shows how volatile and unreliable are the operational GFS, especially after day 10. But I think this run actually has the right idea in general, if not as soon as it has it.
 
GaWx said:
A 2nd Arctic high plunges down into the SE US 1/3-4 with a 2nd bout of much below cold. Nothing like this degree of cold was on any other recent GFS run all the way to day 16! This shows how volatile and unreliable are the operational GFS, especially after day 10. But I think this run actually has the right idea in general, if not as soon as it has it.
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Even though it has a very cold bias the 00z cmc has the same general idea with the cold


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0Z GEFS not surprisingly not nearly as cold as 0Z GFS New Year's with near normal vs GFS' much below though I thought it was going to be colder than it is. But let's see what the GEFS does later in this run.
 
GaWx said:
0Z GEFS not surprisingly not nearly as cold as 0Z GFS New Year's with near normal vs GFS' much below though I thought it was going to be colder than it is. But let's see what the GEFS does later in this run.
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For a low of 53º in Hogtown through the end of the GFS ... Larry, I'll toss ... more than spaghetti ...
 
0z GEFS peters out late. Not what I expected or wanted to see.
 
GaWx said:
0z GEFS peters out late. Not what I expected or wanted to see.
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At least it’s holding onto some blocking. I doubt there isn’t a trough in the east with this look. I’ll take my chances A0229D39-819A-4CED-AFE1-8198C797D3F9.png
 
Models struggled last year at this exact same timeframe. Big stubborn SER finally gave way and I saw flurries on New Years night, albeit there were some big time Arctic air masses dropping down into the plains. I’m not really seeing much of that at the moment
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like some potential on the 6z GEFS
View attachment 9472
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What time-frame would that be? There are big run-to-run changes in the medium to long range with every run. Even the ensembles are jumping around. Going to have to wait and see what is going to happen as we get closer to the pattern change for now.
 
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Isn’t the NAO/AO supposed to be going negative. #SSW?

Be funny if a major SSW occurs but fails to propagate downward.

09B17754-1DD4-44E5-BA44-99BBE9572676.png291AA047-86DF-4612-8263-98010FDE150B.png
 
30f09037915255c4dcdb0b7c41371316.jpg


This is a pretty look. But where is the cold exactly coming from? No high pressure around


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Storm5 said:
Plenty of cold around straight from the arctic
96931775734c88f0a933150e9dd2ec45.png



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Well hopefully this holds true. Looking at those temps. It be a high ratio powdery type snow. We don’t see much powder type snow in upstate


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The euro control looks like some of the gefs members
1d07ee6ca8ca9f8233079c89be1515e0.png


So we have the gefs which as of the 06z run supports a threat in the 1/2-1/5 period and then we have the 00z eps which is like


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pcbjr said:
For a low of 53º in Hogtown through the end of the GFS ... Larry, I'll toss ... more than spaghetti ...
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I'm all in with snow down to you!! It's only 10 days out. Merry Christmas presents for all. What could go wrong??? This could be the year it sleets and snows every 3rd day all winter! Or it might be next year...hmmm...anyway it's a new little ice age..one day..somewhere :)
 
Storm5 said:
The euro control looks like some of the gefs members
1d07ee6ca8ca9f8233079c89be1515e0.png


So we have the gefs which as of the 06z run supports a threat in the 1/2-1/5 period and then we have the 00z eps which is like


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Click to expand...

(Heads to garage, rummaging for the sled)


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Just looked through the 0z EPS members.

At 240, there are basically two camps, one is the western trough idea and the other is with the GEFS.

At 360, it is very interesting. While yes the NAO is positive, most are cold and probably bone crushing cold by glance at 500mb. Most pump the +PNA and drop in a nasty PV lobe. Very 2014'ish with that look. That look plus if we keep the active southern stream would be amazing.
 
GaWx said:
To the powers that determine this: Can we have a special toss of the 12Z GFS if we promise not to toss the 18Z? Please let us toss this.
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I'm not concerned with the soon to be obsolete GFS. I'd be more interested in a little 0z EPS analysis from you, Larry. Will Santa be bringing us a winter wonderland or a lump of coal on the weeklies in a few hours????
 
GaWx said:
To the powers that determine this: Can we have a special toss of the 12Z GFS if we promise not to toss the 18Z? Please let us toss this.
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We can toss it but if the 18z is a dumpster fire we are still tossing it as well . It’s the holidays and special exceptions are made for tossing .

If the weeklies suck tonight , we toss


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Jessy89 said:
Well hopefully this holds true. Looking at those temps. It be a high ratio powdery type snow. We don’t see much powder type snow in upstate


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Cold air would never make it over the mountain with that setup. I don’t like that type of event at all
 
Arcc said:
Just looked through the 0z EPS members.

At 240, there are basically two camps, one is the western trough idea and the other is with the GEFS.

At 360, it is very interesting. While yes the NAO is positive, most are cold and probably bone crushing cold by glance at 500mb. Most pump the +PNA and drop in a nasty PV lobe. Very 2014'ish with that look. That look plus if we keep the active southern stream would be amazing.
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I’m not worried about getting the cold . I’m far more concerned about overbearing cold that will suppress the southern storm track and or the southern jet taking a break and we are left banking on a Vort diving down the backside of a tall western ridge. For our area, that scenario has payed off well over the last 8 years


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