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Pattern Jammin' January

I like how all the moving parts will be in place around Jan 20th! Fab Feb incoming......! I hope the pattern gets suppressed to the Bahamas by months end!!! :)
 
deltadog03 said:
That tells me a pattern change is definitely coming.
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Yessir a lot of moving parts will give models fits in the 7-10 day. I think from the look the Mid Atlantic will be in play around New Years, then hopefully us in the South around a week later.
 
Lol
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Does anyone have if the gfs or the euro maps saved from the January 2011 storm that almost was a board wide hit. I would love to see the setup that was for it. I can’t remember exactly. I lost the ones I had saved.
 
DarkKnight said:
Does anyone have if the gfs or the euro maps saved from the January 2011 storm that almost was a board wide hit. I would love to see the setup that was for it. I can’t remember exactly. I lost the ones I had saved.
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I don’t have maps or set up, but remember it fondly! I think it started Sunday evening over NEGa and into Upstate, via the early arrival of the “ finger” of precip. A cold front had just came through Saturday, bringing fresh cold air. Think my high was 35/36 through milky sunshine, DPs in the teens. Started as straight snow as temps fell to the mid-upper 20s, started after sunset here. All perfect scenarios for max accums! Great storm
 
I see a very average boring pattern. Definitely not the el ninio that we was expecting


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Not surprised, models are going to flip and flop the next week plus until they get a better handle on this upcoming pattern turn. I hope


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The bad news is that the 18Z GEFS is the warmest GEFS of the day through ~1/4. The good news is there's then a quicker transition to cold just afterward and it becomes the coldest of the day for most of 1/5-8. Now, all three of the latest major ensemble means do have a change to colder than normal in the SE with a firm +PNA/-NAO combo starting by 1/4-5. Patience. In the meantime, enjoy the current very pleasant chill.
 
Folks are advised to pay more attention to the 3 major ensemble means, which are currently all honking cold pattern change, than the volatile and unreliable GFS operationals in the 11-15.

Edit: And by the way, I'm reminding y'all that we have the luxury of tossing the 18Z GFS. So, don't worry about it! Toss it like Gloria Stuart did the jewel at the end of the Titanic!
 
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Starting to see that the fv3 has a major hp bias issue where it's way to strong, am I the only one noticing this, it seems to correct itself in closer range but it shows ridiculously strong hp 240h+
 
GaWx said:
Folks are advised to pay more attention to the 3 major ensemble means, which are currently all honking cold pattern change, than the volatile and unreliable GFS operationals in the 11-15.

Edit: And by the way, I'm reminding y'all that we have the luxury of tossing the 18Z GFS. So, don't worry about it! Toss it like Gloria Stuart did the jewel at the end of the Titanic!
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I think we all have a tendency to forget that the Ops and ensembles always are too quick with transitions. Despite this the GEFS is slowly getting closer to the cooler change.
 
SD said:
Here you go
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Funny, this is one of my top 5 most maddening storms of all-time. I was literally on the verge of throwing something that day. Insanely infuriating watching that band dry up as it tried to push northward and when it finally made it we got about 15 minutes of flakes and then freezing rain at RDU.

P.S. Super dry air at RDU with dewpoints down in the 3 to 5F range ahead of the system.

accum.20110110.gif
 
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1300m said:
Funny, this is one of my top 5 most maddening storms of all-time. I was literally on the verge of throwing something that day. Insanely infuriating watching that band dry up as it tried to push northward and when it finally made it we got about 15 minutes of flakes and then freezing rain at RDU.

P.S. Super dry air at RDU with dewpoints down in the 3 to 5F range ahead of the system.

accum.20110110.gif
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I hear ya on that one, remember the models had it right for several days showing the snow stopping at the Triangle, but I kept thinking the northern shield would be better and it wouldn’t just dry out. A painful lesson
 
Stormdoc said:
I hear ya on that one, remember the models had it right for several days showing the snow stopping at the Triangle, but I kept thinking the northern shield would be better and it wouldn’t just dry out. A painful lesson
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I was thinking the same. I rememberthinking the NW trend would save us and it would be a big event.

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1300m said:
Funny, this is one of my top 5 most maddening storms of all-time. I was literally on the verge of throwing something that day. Insanely infuriating watching that band dry up as it tried to push northward and when it finally made it we got about 15 minutes of flakes and then freezing rain at RDU.

P.S. Super dry air at RDU with dewpoints down in the 3 to 5F range ahead of the system.

accum.20110110.gif
Click to expand...

We were under an Ice Storm Warning but got dry slotted so bad that we barely got a glaze. Give me an overrunning event any day.
 
RollTide18 said:
We were under an Ice Storm Warning but got dry slotted so bad that we barely got a glaze. Give me an overrunning event any day.
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that storm was awful for me in Bama, missed the heavy snow by 40 miles and the roads were closed because of 5 minutes of sleet way ahead of schedule :rolleyes:
 
For those living and dieing by the GFS, New Year's is much colder on the 0Z and the coldest by far in at least 4 runs. By the way, after warming on each of the last few GEFS runs, I predict the 6-10 and the overall 0Z GEFS will be much colder than the 18Z. This much colder operational run by mid 6-10 gives me extra confidence on that prediction. The mild 18Z just didn't fit in with the colder trends of the EPS/GEPS,
 
Maybe here in about 3-4 days the models will get a grip on the new model. But if it’s true what most people saying with the ssw it would favor a cold pattern and snowy. Finger crossed
 
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