• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
so much cold build up over the next ten days in Canada . These wild gfs runs are well within its ensemble envelope . They are are only going to get crazier over the next week.
Click to expand...

Wild and warm


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
so much cold build up over the next ten days in Canada . These wild gfs runs are well within its ensemble envelope . They are are only going to get crazier over the next week.
Click to expand...

Yep. Good thing she is being taken out of commission... As Scotty would say...”She can’nae take any more, Captain!”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
This looks exciting...
528160bfbf44cd3fc7431f9f11cadc12.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

This is when the board summarily dismisses this and goes back to MJO propagation maps.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Anyone actually believe January will deliver. I hope so but I remember last year we saw the December storm. Then had to wait all the way till February before we saw a small 1-3 inch type snow


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jessy89 said:
Anyone actually believe January will deliver. I hope so but I remember last year we saw the December storm. Then had to wait all the way till February before we saw a small 1-3 inch type snow


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


I think Jan will deliver cold though patience will be needed. Regarding winter storms in particular places or even in general, they’re usually much more up in the air than trying to forecast temperatures.
 
whatalife said:
Posted this in the December thread and here is the Euro MJO...
7ce11efe75b3beaf3a40b12a893abe72.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

This EPS MJO forecast is quite encouraging although even I have to defer somewhat to what Webb taught us: the EPS tends to under-do the amp of phases 6 and 7 and therefore rush too quickly through them whereas the GEFS tends to be closer to reality. The GEFS is much stronger and slower through phase 6. I hope it is off but I do expect reality to be between the two and probably anywhere from about halfway between to a bit closer to GEFS. Even so, the MJO will very likely get into the favorable for cold sector soon afterward. Patience is recommended.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
This EPS MJO forecast is quite encouraging although even I have to defer somewhat to what Webb taught us: the EPS tends to under-do the amp of phases 6 and 7 and therefore rush too quickly through them. The GEFS is much stronger and slower through phase 6. I hope it is off but I do expect reality to be between the two and probably anywhere from about halfway between to a bit closer to GEFS.
Click to expand...
Larry,
It's going to hang a hard right toward the end of the run, and get stuck until March in the left side if the COD. It has to ... LOL
 
GaWx said:
This EPS MJO forecast is quite encouraging although even I have to defer somewhat to what Webb taught us: the EPS tends to under-do the amp of phases 6 and 7 and therefore rush too quickly through them whereas the GEFS tends to be closer to reality. The GEFS is much stronger and slower through phase 6. I hope it is off but I do expect reality to be between the two and probably anywhere from about halfway between to a bit closer to GEFS.
Click to expand...
Yep the only time where the GFS is capable of consistently beating the Euro on the MJO is when an event is being initialized in/around phase 5. The warming of the polar stratosphere will also contribute to potentially amplifying the MJO here because polar stratospheric warming means the Brewer-Dobson Circulation is accelerated, which causes temperatures near the tropical tropopause to cool, reducing the static stability in the upper troposphere, raising the height of the tropopause, & altering the upper level shear allowing for deeper and more frequent tropical convection. This combined with the fact that we’re at the time of the year where MJO amplitude is largest lends more credence to the slower and more amped GFS MJO solution. Reality may end up being somewhere in between but the GFS will probably be “less wrong” imo
 
GaWx said:
This EPS MJO forecast is quite encouraging although even I have to defer somewhat to what Webb taught us: the EPS tends to under-do the amp of phases 6 and 7 and therefore rush too quickly through them whereas the GEFS tends to be closer to reality. The GEFS is much stronger and slower through phase 6. I hope it is off but I do expect reality to be between the two and probably anywhere from about halfway between to a bit closer to GEFS. Even so, the MJO will very likely get into the favorable for cold sector soon afterward. Patience is recommended.
Click to expand...

I agree with this...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Other than the EPO not looking so cool, things are not at all doom and gloom; enjoy the ride ... ;)


ALL_emean_phase_full.gif4indices.pngpna.mrf.gifsfc_count_sup814_temp.gif
 
deltadog03 said:
I mean that would be IDEAL. Right Larry? Webb?
Click to expand...

Chris, Per my statistical study of Jans 1975-2014, yes, indeed, this EPS forecast would be ideal. However, as Webb said and I agreed based on what Webb taught us last winter, the EPS from its current position in phase 5 tends to underestimate the amp going forward into phases 6 and 7 thus also leading to a too quick progression. So, expect corrections in the days ahead to a higher amp in 6/7 and much slower move to the left. Nevertheless, it will almost certainly get over to the left side (personally hopefully low amp) by mid Jan.
 
RollTide18 said:
Yes it’s depressing because it’s a perfect pattern but it’s like one of those Publishing Clearing House things where you *could* win $5k a week for life and you get excited but then when you look into it, you realize it’s a bunch a BS.
Click to expand...
I’m convinced the cold will come. My fear, however, is that the stj hose will be capped by then. Time will tell
 
We interrupt this whinefest with an important announcement. Most folks will like the changes on the 12Z EPS vs 0Z, especially late in the run when we're looking for a cold pattern change. It has true colder than normal starting the transition on 1/4 and then overtaking and being firmly in place 1/6-7 with much below then. The +PNA/-NAO combo is stout then while we wait for the major SSW to hopefully do its magic soon after to get us a -AO.. Remember that that can sometimes take 3 weeks to get going, which is still not til 1/19.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top