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Pattern Jammin' January

Pattern change incoming......B979AD7C-044B-4F23-AC02-8F7738CCAF3A.png
 
I’ll go ahead and say it and I won’t sugarcoat anything. 00z GFS looks like dog sh**

It actually showed signs of life towards the end (see photo), but overall just a big steaming pile of transient dog sh**
BD98B4B8-C65C-4685-85AC-5A4444F76C6E.png
 
There is a absolutely nothing on any 0z model run anywhere worth looking at. Don’t even bother. Dumpster fires for everyone for Christmas. Hopefully, Santa shows up with a fire extinguisher in the next day or two. Has anyone here been good?
 
Kylo said:
Points NW of 85/40 in NC can score multiple times in “snowy” winters. For Raleigh I can’t recall a winter where we had multiple 6”+ snow events. It’s probably happened but it’s been a long time if it has. I know Mother Nature doesn’t keep score but odds are against Raleigh receiving another big 6”+ event. But, 2-4” event, maybe even a couple happens.

2003, 2004, 2010, 2011 winters had December snow/ice events for NC and all were fairly snowy in Jan/Feb.
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It's definitely happened, but been a really long time for RDU.

1959-60 marks the last occurrence of 2 6"+ events in Raleigh although other parts of the Triangle have accomplished the feat much more recently.

March 2-4 1960 NC Snowmap.png
March 9-10 1960 Snowmap.png

1959-60 was very close to pulling off a 3rd 6"+ event actually.
February 13-14 1960 NC Snowmap.png

The other winters this has occurred are 1947-48, 1935-36, 1926-27, 1898-99, & 1892-93.

In 1947-48, Raleigh picked up 2 8"+ events in just a week & change. Many obviously in the northern coastal plain received back-to-back one footers in just as much time.
January 31-February 1 1948 NC Snow map.png
February 9-10 1948 NC Snowmap.png
 
Rain Cold said:
There is a absolutely nothing on any 0z model run anywhere worth looking at. Don’t even bother. Dumpster fires for everyone for Christmas. Hopefully, Santa shows up with a fire extinguisher in the next day or two. Has anyone here been good?
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Get outta here with all that negativity! Brick, you know we don’t look at op runs when a blockbuster pattern change is coming, or ever!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Get outta here with all that negativity! Brick, you know we don’t look at op runs when a blockbuster pattern change is coming, or ever!
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And the pattern doesn’t flip until around Jan 10-15th. Unfortunately we still have 10 plus days of waiting. I wouldn’t worry about any model until then. They all will look like crap.


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NoSnowATL said:
And the pattern doesn’t flip until around Jan 10-15th. Unfortunately we still have 10 plus days of waiting. I wouldn’t worry about any model until then. They all will look like crap.


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The pattern is already changing by day five at H5. Just a matter of what type of weather you are looking for


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Just to give an idea how long it could take before we get into a really nice pattern, assuming hopefully/if it comes.

2010 is the most recent major SSW that developed a great pattern. The SSW occurred roughly Jan 25th and by Feb 10th or so we were in a great pattern. Though there was a nice event Jan 30th for the SE/MA and then all heck broke loose for the MA Feb 7th and on.

If we get a major around Dec 30th, and it propagates down then reasonable time to get into a similar great pattern would be Jan 15th or so. This actually goes well with timing of how the CFS weeklies look.

2010.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's definitely happened, but been a really long time for RDU.

1959-60 marks the last occurrence of 2 6"+ events in Raleigh although other parts of the Triangle have accomplished the feat much more recently.

View attachment 9432
View attachment 9431

1959-60 was very close to pulling off a 3rd 6"+ event actually.
View attachment 9433

The other winters this has occurred are 1947-48, 1935-36, 1926-27, 1898-99, & 1892-93.

In 1947-48, Raleigh picked up 2 8"+ events in just a week & change. Many obviously in the northern coastal plain received back-to-back one footers in just as much time.
View attachment 9435
View attachment 9434
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Thanks! I can’t imagine how crazy that first two weeks of 1960 was. If only we can experience that.
 
Storm5 said:
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Sisters merging?! What happened to the daughters, granddaughters, and 3rd cousins twice removed? Must be outs with the family right now. Pretty soon, it’ll be like nobody ever left home, stuff everywhere, no food in the house, and twelve cars in the driveway. :(
 
Rain Cold said:
Sisters merging?! What happened to the daughters, granddaughters, and 3rd cousins twice removed? Must be outs with the family right now. Pretty soon, it’ll be like nobody ever left home, stuff everywhere, no food in the house, and twelve cars in the driveway. :(
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Don’t forget “ short duration “ Judah fails me every winter , it’s like clockwork


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Storm5 said:
Don’t forget “ short duration “ Judah fails me every winter , it’s like clockwork


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This is why I smirk a little at the whole SSW thing. It’s definitely possibly going to be really helpful maybe for some period of time. But it also might not be helpful at all. It’s like taking a cat for a walk. It might work, but you just never know.
 
I never put much faith in these SSW events.... It's one of those "maybe, might work" things. It looks good on paper, but never verifies as predicted. I really hope I am wrong. My money is riding on the Nino, PNA, NAO, AO, EPO and MJO
 
Its a long way out but on the going into Jan 3rd, the 6z GFS, FV3, and GEFS mean show a secondary wave riding the frontal boundary of the New Years cutter. The upper energy swings in positive tilt so could be quite the overrunning event wherever it sets up.
 
Rain Cold said:
Sisters merging?! What happened to the daughters, granddaughters, and 3rd cousins twice removed? Must be outs with the family right now. Pretty soon, it’ll be like nobody ever left home, stuff everywhere, no food in the house, and twelve cars in the driveway. :(
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And the red headed step children (the southeast) left out

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Don't mock the m-SSW's....they can hear us and won't deliver the goods. I guess you guys don't want a March 1960 repeat :oops:


Screen Shot 2018-12-23 at 10.01.01 AM.png
 
Kylo said:
CFS says it's fool proof. Even RainCold and Tarheel couldn't mess this up.
View attachment 9440
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The problem is everyone in the SE has seen a great pattern turn to sh*% in days. I understand and agree. Until we actually see snow falling or cold air pushing in we will never believe it. That’s just the way it is. I will keep believing in the smart guys until they are proven wrong and I can blame them.


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NoSnowATL said:
The problem is everyone in the SE has seen a great pattern turn to sh*% in days. I understand and agree. Until we actually see snow falling or cold air pushing in we will never believe it. That’s just the way it is. I will keep believing in the smart guys until they are proven wrong and I can blame them.


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Why be on a weather forum looking ahead and spending time discussing it then? If you won't believe anything, what's the point?
 
Ouch models didn’t look so good last night, but, as what’s been the theme with models, they’ll be different today.
 
Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events actually constitute a considerable portion of the signal that makes late January & February so nice in El Nino winters. The following NINO winters that have actual RAOB data to back them up had a SSW event.
1939-40, 1940-41, 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1968-69, 1969-70, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1979-80, 1986-87, 1987-88, 2002-03, 2006-07, & 2009-10.

Out of all of these NINO winters, the SSW event in late December & early January 1940 can boast triggering the biggest negative mid-winter AO a couple weeks later with -6.4 observed in NOAA's 20th century reanalysis on January 16 1940, which is also the deepest negative value in the entire time series, even larger than monster -AOs found in 1977 or Feb 2010 at least in this dataset.
compday.76.252.174.236.356.8.15.45.gif

The massive event that followed in late January is arguably the biggest winter storm for the southernwx board as a whole we've seen in the last century or more. While you can score without them, SSW events definitely can take a mediocre-good pattern and make it amazing.

January 21-24 1940 US Snowmap.png
 
Mack knows I’m more of an analog fan than CFS fan when it comes to looking out more than 2-3 weeks. Speaking of analogs, here is a list of cold borderline weak/moderate El Niño’s: 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-12, 1923-4, 1939-40, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8. Note that 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-2, 1923-4, 1939-40, and 1977-8 didn't have a particularly cold Dec and in some cases it was actually mild, but they all had a very cold Jan-Feb. This is why I say don't let these mild 2 weeks of Dec. fool you.

Keeping this in mind, here is Dec averaged out for the ones available at this website (1904+) : only a cool lean E 1/3 of US (1 to 2 colder than normal):

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.356.0.6.52.prcp.png


Here are the Jans averaged out: very cold (5 to 7 colder than normal) much of E 2/3 of the US:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.356.0.10.36.prcp.png


Here are the Febs averaged out: solid cold though not as cold as Jans (3 to 5 colder than normal) much of E 2/3 of the US:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.356.0.30.16.prcp.png



Here is March averaged out: still pretty chilly most of US

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.356.1.9.22.prcp.png

Moral of the story: patience, folks! In the meantime, enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get. Yesterday was actually a pleasantly chilly winter day here and last night was downright cold. Not bad for a supposedly mild period.
 
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I'd like to apologize in advance, I've ruined all of January. I actually started glancing at the prices of snowblowers. :eek:o_OMy bad. Won't happen again unless there's a real threat in the 7 day. Thank you for your forgiveness.
 
GaWx said:
I think the quality of the CFS overall is poor since it is often very jumpy from run to run and also is warm biased. Nevertheless and fwiw, the last 2 CFS runs have overall trended colder in the SE for mid to late Jan.
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I’ve don’t remember a time so many people have been so excited about the CFS. Its especially comical in the twitter weather world


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whatalife said:
This looks exciting...
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whatalife said:
This looks exciting...
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so much cold build up over the next ten days in Canada . These wild gfs runs are well within its ensemble envelope . They are are only going to get crazier over the next week.
 
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