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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
Many of the 12z eps members are a straight blow torch days 10-15 . Thankfully the mean is muted due to some extremely cold members. Damn the EPS is all over the map


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I'm guessing that the EPS is being warm biased like the last time it first turned cold.

The EPS' MJO fcast into low amp 7 is a beauty although I've learned from @Webberweather53 that it tends to be at too low an amp and maybe too fast in phases 6-7 and that the GEFS' higher amp/slower still in phase 6 will probably be closer:

EPS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml
GEFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml
 
Storm5 said:
Many of the 12z eps members are a straight blow torch days 10-15 . Thankfully the mean is muted due to some extremely cold members. Damn the EPS is all over the map


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Interesting enough, looks like ~50% of the members and the control support the OP in trough evolution for New Years.
 
Bring on another nc storm, would probably break some records since I already had 6 inches of snow, I wouldn't want nothing for the rest of this winter and next winter
 
GaWx said:
I'm guessing that the EPS is being warm biased like the last time it first turned cold.

The EPS' MJO fcast into low amp 7 is a beauty although I've learned from @Webberweather53 that it tends to be at too low an amp and maybe too fast in phases 6-7 and that the GEFS' higher amp/slower still in phase 6 will probably be closer:

EPS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml
GEFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml
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Which is funny bc GEFS very cold and EPS is seasonal. You would think with MJO forecasts it would be backwards.
 
That system has a south trend written all over it. Look at the northern stream, that's going to be pushing south and eastward as the system pushes eastward. Also, what are the chances that NC gets hit again after some areas seen over their average snowfall amounts? Sure, NC can get a snow storm again, but I have my bets that the system will likely be a southern slider. A winter storm from TX to SC.
746cf6ac1289546591c77020559f41cb.jpg
 
WxWatch said:
That system has a south trend written all over it. Look at the northern stream, that's going to be pushing south and eastward as the system pushes eastward. Also, what are the chances that NC gets hit again after some areas seen over their average snowfall amounts? Sure, NC can get a snow storm again, but I have my bets that the system will likely be a southern slider. A winter storm from TX to SC.
746cf6ac1289546591c77020559f41cb.jpg
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That is not a 500mb pattern that is conducive to a southern slider. The orientation is negative tilt already. It will only go north or shear. It has to dig more to be a threat to us. Can that happen? Sure but this is not the look we want.
 
Nc/sc also has a advantage in this already, looks like there will be a CAD that sets up, nc sits in a good spot
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
That is not a 500mb pattern that is conducive to a southern slider. The orientation is negative tilt already. It will only go north or shear. It has to dig more to be a threat to us. Can that happen? Sure but this is not the look we want.
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Yep. The only way we score with that look is if we get what the GFS is hinting at later, which is the lead wave amping then pushing through and the secondary wave digging into the Southwest, possibly creating an overrunning event.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
That is not a 500mb pattern that is conducive to a southern slider. The orientation is negative tilt already. It will only go north or shear. It has to dig more to be a threat to us. Can that happen? Sure but this is not the look we want.
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That look will change at H5. The orientation of that trof will change as well. It may not be negative tilt at that time on future model runs.
 
Not nc stealing it, well kinda, more like the mountains locking in cold air from a HP to our north, a decent trustworthy cold air source
 
NoSnowATL said:
NC is always sitting in a good spot. NC steals everyone else’s snow.


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Lets not speak in such broad terms some parts of nc are at a T of snow so far this year

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SD said:
Lets not speak in such broad terms some parts of nc are at a T of snow so far this year

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True, I was more talking about NC the state so far this winter. I’m sure it will even out.



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With the strongest SSW in 10+ years likely leading to possibly very strong -AO by mid Jan, the road to much colder MJO phases ahead, the already forecasted +PNA and -NAO in early Jan, the coldest SE Jan-Feb on average having been borderline weak/mod El Nino, the current extreme solar cycle min, and the last seasonal Euro showing extreme cold in the E US, I don't know how one couldn't be very optimistic about the chances for a very long period of cold domination in much of Jan/Feb. I wouldn't at all be surprised if there is a 45-60 day E US cold dominated period that rivals some of the coldest 45-60 day weak/mod Nino periods within 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-12, 1923-4, 1939-40, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8. Note that 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-2, 1923-4, 1939-40, and 1977-8 didn't have a cold Dec but had a very cold Jan-Feb.

It is like the wx index/climo slot machine is hitting all 7s!
 
GaWx said:
With the strongest SSW in 10+ years likely leading to possibly very strong -AO by mid Jan, the road to much colder MJO phases ahead, the already forecasted +PNA and -NAO in early Jan, the coldest SE Jan-Feb on average having been borderline weak/mod El Nino, the current extreme solar cycle min, and the last seasonal Euro showing extreme cold in the E US, I don't know how one couldn't be very optimistic about the chances for a very long period of cold domination in much of Jan/Feb. I wouldn't at all be surprised if there is a 45-60 day E US cold dominated period that rivals some of the coldest 45-60 day weak/mod Nino periods within 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-12, 1923-4, 1939-40, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8. Note that 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-2, 1923-4, 1939-40, and 1977-8 didn't have a cold Dec but had a very cold Jan-Feb.

It is like the wx index/climo slot machine is hitting all 7s!
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Larry, great stuff , as always! Seems like all signs are pointing to glory! BUT, it’s still only on paper , speculation, if you will. There’s still a few things that can not come up 7’s! Cautiously optimistic
 
I’m not optimistic. I’m just patiently waiting on my snow. It’s coming. Guaranteed 4-6”+ event here before winter comes to a close. Take it to the bank
 
We’re going to have one of those rare events here east of the mountains where cold air and sufficient 850’s are in place before precip moves in. Rain snow line will extend at least into north Columbia. Screenshot this for posterity
 
I'm going to hold out hope for another 2/12/10 happening for as long as possible. If not, then an event where circumstances shake out to where I can at least attempt a chase. Wet snow is better than dry snow imo and I'd love to wake up in the morning to all these trees around me having a thick coating of snow on them.
 
Phased massive cutter here. The NS wave actually looks like it's going to phase with what was a bowling ball.

(edit, hmm, actually maybe watch that NS wave)
 
I don’t remember who said it but NC scoring earlier this month does not mean s$$$ for the rest of the winter . They could have ten more winter storms for all we know . Mother Nature does not care one bit how many times a certain area scores


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As ARCC said the gfs and euro handle the Energy late next weekend completely different . One leads to cold and MAYBE a chance for some while the other solution leads to mid - upper 60s with Storms


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Storm5 said:
I don’t remember who said it but NC scoring earlier this month does not mean s$$$ for the rest of the winter . They could have ten more winter storms for all we know . Mother Nature does not care one bit how many times a certain area scores


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I know I've said it. A winter pattern is a winter pattern and RDU could end up with 30" if things go the right way. I was recently accused on here of being a climo forecaster and what is funny is that I am literally the farthest thing from one.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Phased massive cutter here. The NS wave actually looks like it's going to phase with what was a bowling ball.

(edit, hmm, actually maybe watch that NS wave)
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In this setup we do not want a phase. We want stream separation and for the northern stream to get out ahead of the southern wave and deliver cold and suppression. It's a timing thing but NC has already had it work for some of us once.
 
This is a active pattern/stj models won't handle well until we get below 120 hours, so many pieces of energy in different spots could give you a range from snow to severe weather
 
Also, how to tell the GFS is utter garbage :
gfs_mslpa_us_31.png

Looks like a nice strong CAD and some deep cold from Canada right? Nope. The wider SER seems to stop it despite deep cold in E CAN and who knows what else. I noticed the Euro and GFS have different effects on the SER from this system not to mention timing, as the GFS and FV3 are later, while the Euro is before the new year. The CMC seems to agree with the Euro on timing and has had the system for several runs. Unless the Euro heads towards the GFS, this may be something to watch for either severe weather as mentioned or wintry weather.
 
I need to stop making calls too early haha. But anyway, nothing has changed, I still like the first week of January either way to produce something and there's no point trying to make calls off of these runs when it'll be different the next one.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I need to stop making calls too early haha. But anyway, nothing has changed, I still like the first week of January either way to produce something and there's no point trying to make calls off of these runs when it'll be different the next one.
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There's nothing wrong looking at each run and comparing them. That's how you look for trends anyway. You're not the only one that makes calls too early, I've been there, and I'm pretty sure others have made early calls too. But, there's nothing wrong making early calls based from your experiance and observance.
 
WxWatch said:
There's nothing wrong looking at each run and comparing them. That's how you look for trends anyway. You're not the only one that makes calls too early, I've been there, and I'm pretty sure others have made early calls too. But, there's nothing wrong making early calls based from your experiance and observance.
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Yeah same here. I've called runs bad and good before and they sometimes turn out that way, other times they just flop and go the other way.

Meanwhile the FV3 18Z seems to have everything shifted about 100 to 200 miles north including the SER so it's not going to be pretty.
 
Storm5 said:
I don’t remember who said it but NC scoring earlier this month does not mean s$$$ for the rest of the winter . They could have ten more winter storms for all we know . Mother Nature does not care one bit how many times a certain area scores


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I remember that comment and was wondering why it was mentioned. They are not the deep south where you are lucky to score one for the winter. They score multiple times in a good pattern vs here.
 
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