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Brick Tamland
Guest
I am trying to recall the last time we have gone a whole week without rain here. All we need is the cold to go with the precip that has been repeating every week.
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This will show the upcoming major SSW by about this time next week. In the meantime, it has cooled some the last few days as predicted by the models. Today and tomorrow will turn out to be the bottom and rapid warming will commence by no later than Monday. If we can get to brown at the 10 mb level (10 on left side of graph/30 on right side) which the EPS and GEPS have been suggesting though not the GEFS, it would become the strongest warming at 10 mb in 10 years:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png
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Flurry
Member
It's Happening !!!
DadOfJax
Member
This can't be happening....shorts weather was coming?!?!?!?!?!
Stormlover
Member
and the Jan-Mar outlookTWC's February temperature outlook.... yes please
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Brick Tamland
Guest
As a kid I always felt the first 7 days in January was the time to score a winter storm. It’s been a while though. All I see is good news on here this morning. Hopefully that will not change at 12, 06, and 00z
Stormlover
Member
We will start seeing more runs with this in it as we get closer to the pattern change. Plus I bet we will see some awesome clown maps.
More telling is that the 12Z GEFS is coming in colder.
Edit: Not for the SE US in particular, but for the US as a whole the 12Z GEFS is the coldest yet for 12/28-1/4.
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According to NOAA, much of the south is looking cold and dry for early to mid January.
pcbjr
Member
Hope NOAA is correct, and far more so than this outlook for early next year ...
Storm5
Member
*most eps members have our cold shot next weekend in and out then warm us quickly . This run was MUCH warmer vs last nights 00z run
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Kylo
Member
*most eps members have our cold shot next weekend in and out then warm us quickly . This run was MUCH warmer vs last nights 00z run
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah, it developed no blocking, rather ugly.
NoSnowATL
Member
Yea looks that way, but looks like we will have blocking so I’m going to trash this run for now.
Kylo
Member
I think we will have a lot of back and forth on models in the day 10+ for a period. Still, whether a better pattern starts Jan 5th or the 15th it looks promising.
Storm5
Member
The 15th would be a fail in my opinion . That’s three more weeks of winter wasted away . If this SSW fails to materialize we will need all the weeks we can count as we normally only have a good 2-3 week window every winter where the pattern is good for us .
People are banking on this SSW . Let’s say the PV splits and we end up with a great cold source for a month and a banging pattern . There is ZERO guarantee we score as you know .
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1. The SSW will occur almost with certainty. The effects are always up in the air.
2. I'm not at all banking on it due to MJO/weak Nino climo in Jan/model hints. But this would be the first very strong SSW during a weakish Nino since at least 1979.
If we get a piece of the tropospheric PV on our side of the pole by mid-January I am banking on scoring 1-3 more significant winter storms depending on the duration that pattern lasts and probably a few minor events sprinkled in as well. All we need right now is a mechanism to deliver some cold and keep the shortwaves/southern stream suppressed - the one time we got that, NC scored already.
Kylo
Member
I think with or without a major SSW we will still have chances. I just hope by next weekend we start seeing model agreement on HLB with nice Aleutian low. The EPS hasnt been consistent run to run which makes me think we got wait a little more. The 15th isn’t that far away.
GEFS says we start early Jan
.Kylo
Member
Let’s see how things evolve next few days. GEFS wants that -NAO and EPS not so much.
pcbjr
Member
Lord, optimism keeps the sun coming up each day, but sometimes it's worth taking a deep breath ... and saying a prayer (in this case that the PNA can dominate everything else, and that maybe for one more time in 20 years SSW will do something good on this side of the globe, way down in Dixie)
down in Dixie) ...
down in Dixie) ...
To see the GFS prog for the SSW, start with this and then change the 000 to 024, 048, all the way to 192 and see the top down progression at the N pole:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/SSW/gif_files/lat_pres_gfs_TMP_NH_f000.png
I estimate this shows a warming at 10 mb at 60-90N to +28 anom. The warming at the pole at 10 mb is from -78 C to -18 C in just 5 days!!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/SSW/gif_files/lat_pres_gfs_TMP_NH_f000.png
I estimate this shows a warming at 10 mb at 60-90N to +28 anom. The warming at the pole at 10 mb is from -78 C to -18 C in just 5 days!!
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Big E
Member
Am new here, and thanks for the add. I see the Weather Channel is also on board will below normal temps for Jan.
I wrote this 10 years ago after the last major SSW:
1/23/09 Sudden Strat. Warming: implies cold 2/15-28 SE US
Implies: avg. 6 below norm KATL/entire FEB coldest 22 percentile in GA
The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event centered on 1/23/2009 (which has been described as one of the strongest, if not the strongest, this decade) has MAJOR (COLD) implications for the SE US for the last half of Feb. 2009 based on eight prior similar cases since 1957.
- I analyzed the eight events within 16 days of 1/23: 1/31/58, 1/15/60, 1/28/63, 1/17/68, 1/18/71, 1/31/73, 1/9/77, and 1/23/87.
- supposedly the effect of SSW on the SE US is 3+ weeks later
2nd half of Feb.'s (KATL):
Out of eight, a whopping seven (87.5%) were colder than normal. Regarding the eight combined, they averaged an impressively cold 6 F below normal (which is near average for mid Jan.), 75% were at least 5.5 F colder than normal,and two were a very cold 11.5 below normal!!
Coldest lows (F): 5 in 1958, 8 and 14 in 1963, 15 in 1968, and 16 in 1973.
Snow/IP: 2.7" from 0.63" liquid 1958; 2.6" from 0.45" liquid 1968 (Aside: 1967-8 winter was a weak La Nina)
Because 1977's SSW event was centered on 1/9, 14 days earlier than 2009's event and the earliest by far of the events I analyzed, I do feel that it is worth mentioning some of the specifics from 2/1-14/1977: 6.5 F below normal overall; lows of 18 F on 2/2, 17 F on 2/6, and 15 F on 2/8.
GA as a whole:
For the period 1957-2001 (45 Feb.'s), three of the coldest four GA Feb's were Feb's that followed one of these eight SSW events: 1958 (coldest), 1968 (3rd coldest), and 1963 (4th coldest)!
The other five Feb's: 1977 (eighth coldest), 1973 (10th coldest), 1960 (15th coldest), 1987 (19th coldest), and 1971 (20th coldest). So, even the warmest of these eight Feb's was still 20th coldest (out of the 45 from 1957 through 2001)!
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So, maybe the chances for cold in the SE are higher than I was just thinking. The upcoming major SSW late Dec 2018 will occur ~25 days earlier. So, perhaps this analysis can apply to the 2nd half of Jan. in 2019.
1/23/09 Sudden Strat. Warming: implies cold 2/15-28 SE US
Implies: avg. 6 below norm KATL/entire FEB coldest 22 percentile in GA
The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event centered on 1/23/2009 (which has been described as one of the strongest, if not the strongest, this decade) has MAJOR (COLD) implications for the SE US for the last half of Feb. 2009 based on eight prior similar cases since 1957.
- I analyzed the eight events within 16 days of 1/23: 1/31/58, 1/15/60, 1/28/63, 1/17/68, 1/18/71, 1/31/73, 1/9/77, and 1/23/87.
- supposedly the effect of SSW on the SE US is 3+ weeks later
2nd half of Feb.'s (KATL):
Out of eight, a whopping seven (87.5%) were colder than normal. Regarding the eight combined, they averaged an impressively cold 6 F below normal (which is near average for mid Jan.), 75% were at least 5.5 F colder than normal,and two were a very cold 11.5 below normal!!
Coldest lows (F): 5 in 1958, 8 and 14 in 1963, 15 in 1968, and 16 in 1973.
Snow/IP: 2.7" from 0.63" liquid 1958; 2.6" from 0.45" liquid 1968 (Aside: 1967-8 winter was a weak La Nina)
Because 1977's SSW event was centered on 1/9, 14 days earlier than 2009's event and the earliest by far of the events I analyzed, I do feel that it is worth mentioning some of the specifics from 2/1-14/1977: 6.5 F below normal overall; lows of 18 F on 2/2, 17 F on 2/6, and 15 F on 2/8.
GA as a whole:
For the period 1957-2001 (45 Feb.'s), three of the coldest four GA Feb's were Feb's that followed one of these eight SSW events: 1958 (coldest), 1968 (3rd coldest), and 1963 (4th coldest)!
The other five Feb's: 1977 (eighth coldest), 1973 (10th coldest), 1960 (15th coldest), 1987 (19th coldest), and 1971 (20th coldest). So, even the warmest of these eight Feb's was still 20th coldest (out of the 45 from 1957 through 2001)!
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So, maybe the chances for cold in the SE are higher than I was just thinking. The upcoming major SSW late Dec 2018 will occur ~25 days earlier. So, perhaps this analysis can apply to the 2nd half of Jan. in 2019.
NoSnowATL
Member
Great posts GaWx, I believe all in the SE should feel great about the next 2 months potential.
SnowNiner
Member
Looks like the GEFS is just faster with the Scandanavian ridge poking into the -NAO region. The faster poke pushes the trough further SE and mutes the SE ridge. Overall maybe the EPS is on the same page but is just pushing the retrograde back in time. I always thought we were stuck until the second half of January. Seeing the models start the beginning of January seems a bit too soon. Realistically I think we wait until we get into MJO phase 7 before the real pattern change starts. That's still going to be a few more weeks.
I just noticed something. Of the eight SSWs within 16 days of 1/23 that I analyzed 10 years ago., an incredible 4 (50%) were followed between 8 and 22 days later by 5 very rare ~1"+ SN events at SAV and SN down into N FL for 3 of the 4 : SSWs 1/31/58, 1/17/68, 1/31/73, 1/9/77 (this last one followed by jax/gnv 1/18 sn and very cold rain Jax/GNV 1/31/77)
So, SAV had measurable SN 5 times 1958-77 and all 5 were 8-22 days after a major Jan SSW!! Hmmm. And 4 of the 5 were during Nino!
So, SAV had measurable SN 5 times 1958-77 and all 5 were 8-22 days after a major Jan SSW!! Hmmm. And 4 of the 5 were during Nino!
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Bank it!
Kylo
Member
87 had a similar SSW where the PV displaced over towards Europe. This one is currently modeled to split...which theoretically is better. And of course Jan 20-Feb 28th of 1987 was the snowiest period I can recall when I lived in the triad.
Kylo
Member
Also with 87 was how wet it was in the SE. Both the GEFS/EPS keep up a very wet SE with wave after wave.
Kylo
Member
GEFS split...daughter vortex's are in Europe and Ontario. Looks like a 3rd one has formed too near Siberia. Wonder how many times a split has occurred where a daughter vortex was sent to Canada, south of Hudson Bay.
How well are these split vortex locations modeled ahead of time?
How does SSW affect ice growth/temperatures in the Arctic?