One thing is for sure.right now, the moisture is there across the SE. Need a nice pattern change to deliver enough cold and should be good to go.
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RollTide18
Member
This is true. If you look at it, if we had a cold source worth anything this month, December would’ve been one to remember.
Can you say February 1996 snow/ice storm part 2. Was it the same type of pattern??? Looks like it to me.
With all the years of hoopla concerning SSW events, I dont believe Ive ever seen that modeled. Dreamed about by many, but never actually shown. If a SSW is a unicorn, getting the PV into NA must be finding out the unicorn and bigfoot had a baby and you are invited to the birthday party.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Surprised no one mentioned the 18z GFS!? A 3 day event, and you know it’s going to trend colder!
Probably because it's the 18z gfs 
Jessy89
Member
There’s a pretty look. In fantasy land
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Doubt it'll be as fantasy land shows, but I'll also go on record and say that I think we will be looking for something in the first week of January.
That would be a painful look for those east of the mountains. Destin FL gets 2-4” while we rain. Ouch
There’s a pretty look. In fantasy land
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Jessy89
Member
It will have a different look tomorrow. Just 6hrs ago cad areas was getting ice. During that time frame
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Should be some pretty model runs over the Holiday break. Enjoy
cd2play
Member
Ouch is a word to describe many winter patterns in recent years.
cd2play
Member
If any run shows a 2011-12 zonal, I'm going to print it off and use it as a dust pan
Some cold air in Canada. But, No real push of cold air or at least where it stays locked in on the 0z gfs.
cd2play
Member
Gonna be a jail break!!!
Nice look on fv3 at 186. 1048 high sliding out of Canada with a low pressure system Southern California . That could work for something nice....
Overrunning setup getting going at 210 for Texas. Let’s see if it translates further east. 
Here’s the better look. 
And we actually have cold air to work with from the north unlike the last few setups we been through. 
Then it cuts through the Ohio Valley. ?????
If it wouldn’t have cut and stayed as a overrunning event been nice for a lot of the southeast.
First of January defitely going to be fun to watch.
If it wouldn’t have cut and stayed as a overrunning event been nice for a lot of the southeast.
First of January defitely going to be fun to watch.
Wow 0z GEFS now splits the PV in 8 days! Trending faster with each run. Goes nutso with blocking later in the run.
The models are fun to look at in the longer range, but things will change. I do think we'll see a winter storm threat some time in the first week of Jan. and it could be a winter storm with great magnitude. There will likely be deep cold air to work with as a PV anomaly sets in over the mid latitudes. As this process is occuring, the SER would be "hanging" on for dear life at the very end of this month.
It's possible the western portions of the southeastern states and upper south may get an icing event with that second weather system around the New Year. Then, the really cold air makes it's way further southeastward, and it's possible that board wide winter threat comes in. We're definitely going to see some more fun model runs.
It's possible the western portions of the southeastern states and upper south may get an icing event with that second weather system around the New Year. Then, the really cold air makes it's way further southeastward, and it's possible that board wide winter threat comes in. We're definitely going to see some more fun model runs.
Brent
Member
*faints*
GEFS towards the end of the run. Come come get you some 
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Hmmm, more cold rain!
Yeah, that sound is the rocker coming lose.
A decent amount of gefs ensembles already have ice/sleet for the new years storm in CAD areas, espescially the CAD areas in NC, I'ma start paying attention
Nice input.. learned a lot with that post. ??
Wow 6z Gfs is very Cold Cold toward the 1st and after!!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
To bad it wasn’t under 120 hours?Now those are arctic airmasses.
FWIW: Many global models are now coming into agreement on a cold pattern change for the eastern US as we head to the beginning of January.
snowlover91
Member
Early January is looking great for a switch to a colder pattern. Look for a potential winter threat when that happens, when patterns transition we usually have a threat. With the early PV disruption and low solar this year it’s likely that January and February could be one to remember for a long time...
Storm5
Member
The 00z EPS was much better compared to yesterday’s warm 12z run
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Kylo
Member
GEPS looks solid too. It really does a number on the PV.
Is it too much to ask for the Siberian ridge to bridge the pole and connect with the western north American ridge?
I am happy with the overnight data. Hopefully, they continue to build. Merry Christmas Eve Eve Eve!
Kylo
Member
I was thinking about that. Typically with nino/-nao we see low heights in Siberia. Would bet the ridge bridge is seen with +NAO/-EPO like 2014, 2015.
cd2play
Member
Yes, because mother nature doesn't think we deserve it.
Storm5
Member
