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Pattern Jammin' January

I am trying to recall the last time we have gone a whole week without rain here. All we need is the cold to go with the precip that has been repeating every week.
 
This will show the upcoming major SSW by about this time next week. In the meantime, it has cooled some the last few days as predicted by the models. Today and tomorrow will turn out to be the bottom and rapid warming will commence by no later than Monday. If we can get to brown at the 10 mb level (10 on left side of graph/30 on right side) which the EPS and GEPS have been suggesting though not the GEFS, it would become the strongest warming at 10 mb in 10 years:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png
 
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Sleet City USA said:
TWC's February temperature outlook.... yes please
k9rSintp4vL-Ae38_fvvL7Poy4Ou7y-yadYP5lOEjedwmqZY-dj6sz9w-Cc-Un--j_PaG2I5du1FxEW4PgemCx9P92uO4kaglTZzxF8RrlJQ9KtKblUM7WRFF20iBe7IvoqW4a_LG0AhdUfqHx7um2y3K9bAXv0af_GyGhD50lfnqv87b9C8mFIz6edBEeFjBhdEN-5R_4Lv-erupKYNfYs35plqKUlxrWY8_YFgsw2LGVlE-ezYbTOoVOmN87iHjHIU94yiAeWaEeGAlCSOyzZ8vr1oZEL-uFfZL-XHFPUI3A1BcmDZs6-wROylgbH-g5DYt2KBgkx12juso76ALSX4OOS16wVaef_ngCA9J_LjJ_HIasrWp9mteWN0ecduJTFzuBXXpbCpWD3UIx1uiZxgPIZktRroOkNO8pzkZGs2RJCqPgvH6h40GfxuUDyQaZHJN0H_aWOQUy1OnbfzYmTbnYRctj61y3FQUgoMEesY_Wy0dVX9rbTmaRB60Mz3w3AV7Vcp0lMEGFuzDOiHUvbYehd98mKrVUdWpTmrywgZ0GM-i4F3k4zyDq1if3jHNrTpBw3KMcPwNV7uMib0v9SbBa6B39yY-jM7C92tGWCEeQ1uO2QP303qEcqgyUaoO7pzaGOwcarlT-n5RYK1w8As=w659-h371-no
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and the Jan-Mar outlook
 

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I'm started to feel optimistic about pattern change! I'm so tired of thinking to myself wow what if all this rain we keep getting was snow cola would be shut down lol
 
As a kid I always felt the first 7 days in January was the time to score a winter storm. It’s been a while though. All I see is good news on here this morning. Hopefully that will not change at 12, 06, and 00z
 
DarkKnight said:
We will start seeing more runs with this in it as we get closer to the pattern change. Plus I bet we will see some awesome clown maps.
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More telling is that the 12Z GEFS is coming in colder.

Edit: Not for the SE US in particular, but for the US as a whole the 12Z GEFS is the coldest yet for 12/28-1/4.
 
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*most eps members have our cold shot next weekend in and out then warm us quickly . This run was MUCH warmer vs last nights 00z run
93b157f2fa6e45585fb1e446f7c123dc.png
4e556a2415c668984da0c36c6e08ee24.png
908438fa8f94b57e3cf6fa4e634b3fb1.png



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Storm5 said:
*most eps members have our cold shot next weekend in and out then warm us quickly . This run was MUCH warmer vs last nights 00z run
93b157f2fa6e45585fb1e446f7c123dc.png
4e556a2415c668984da0c36c6e08ee24.png
908438fa8f94b57e3cf6fa4e634b3fb1.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah, it developed no blocking, rather ugly.
 
Kylo said:
I think we will have a lot of back and forth on models in the day 10+ for a period. Still, whether a better pattern starts Jan 5th or the 15th it looks promising.
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The 15th would be a fail in my opinion . That’s three more weeks of winter wasted away . If this SSW fails to materialize we will need all the weeks we can count as we normally only have a good 2-3 week window every winter where the pattern is good for us .

People are banking on this SSW . Let’s say the PV splits and we end up with a great cold source for a month and a banging pattern . There is ZERO guarantee we score as you know .


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