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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
Looks like the Pioneer
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Everyone loves to hate JB but damn. Joe would say “global models are coming around to show what the Pioneer was showing back in August” ?
 
I really hope we get the southern stream rolling when we get cold as it already has been, I don't want lip chapping, static shock cold and dryness
 
Yeah I REALLY don't want it to be bone dry when we get cold. Let's time up one good southern stream wave just after the SSW gets in effect in the East (if it does).
 
Yeah no doubt the cold air would slosh further south with a 1048 high. Gotta love the strong high pressures coming down on both goofuses
 
Storm5 said:
It’s gonna be funny when we switch to a much colder pattern and the southern stream shuts off ....


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That's certainly possible, if any storm system(s) they would propably come before or after the transition. But, if the timing is just right, there could be a storm system at the same time the dense cold air mass is moving southeastward. Of course, so many possibilities.
 
DarkKnight said:
Then it cuts. Lol. Funny it wouldn’t think it would with that 1048 High pressure there..lol
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lol it decides to delay until the HP erodes a bit (which I don't expect to see a 1048 HP) and cuts. I don't know about that, although it might make sense because on H5 it turns itself into a bowling ball. The initial look would work though.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
lol it decides to delay until the HP erodes a bit (which I don't expect to see a 1048 HP) and cuts. I don't know about that, although it might make sense because on H5 it turns itself into a bowling ball. The initial look would work though.
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Bottom line GFS is wrong, not trying to look through rose colored glasses but either the cold press would be stronger and we have winter weather here or the high pressure weaker and we rain.
 
DarkKnight said:
Then it cuts. Lol. Funny it wouldn’t think it would with that 1048 High pressure there..lol
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Rule of thumb in the SE ... you have to get the cold air in here first. Climo will tell you that a high pressure in the Lakes / Ohio valley to NY is prefered for a winter storm here. If the high is too weak or out of position, the storm will likely cut. Exceptions to the rule involve a strong 50/50 with confluence or a stout +PNA ridge.
 
Thank goodness the fv3 has been horrible at 500mb, still think it will cut, but the way things look there could at least be a in-situ cad for nc
 
Arcc said:
If the FV3 is right at 500mb, that storm wil cut 100/100 times. It actually not even close to not cutting.
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Agreed, that's a cutter pattern. The best we could hope for is a period of freezing rain and sleet at the onset. Now, with that being said, it could change if the 500mb pattern digs deeper. Bottom line, don't sleep on this one.
 
Arcc said:
All seriousness, the Euro is bouncing like a pinball consistancy wise. But, it is interesting for the moment.
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I agree Arcc. There has been a storm signal during this time frame for the last couple of days. Of course we need to get through a few more day to work the detail out. This has been appearing on a few ENSEMBLES as well!
 
Happy New Year from the Euro. Another flat and weak system like the last one, just not as juiced.
 
Arcc said:
The difference between the GFS and Euro really is the Euro ejects the full trough while the GFS/FV3 separate the waves and deposit it into the SW. The funny thing is that was the Euros bias. Something in this time frame isnt farfetched.
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Yep, I remember the days when the EURO had a winter bias to dig energy deep in the southwest and cut it off, only to correct itself closer to verification time .... They seem to have fixed that bias. Who will cave?
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Yep, I remember the days when the EURO had a winter bias to dig energy deep in the southwest and cut it off, only to correct itself closer to verification time .... They seem to have fixed that bias. Who will cave?
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Ill bet the GFS. While its likely this ends up nothing, I still have to side with the Euro. It has wanted to eject this for the past couple of runs.

Edit: Looking at the EPS, the OP will have a decent amount of support with the trough ejection look. Probably not much yet storm wise.
 
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Yep it will verify for sure, right on the gradient, right on the good side with 5-6 inches of snow, I-85 The cutoff happens everytime
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep it will verify for sure, right on the gradient, right on the good side with 5-6 inches of snow, I-85 The cutoff happens everytime
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Don’t give up hope! Surely with the newly discovered “ daughter “ vortexes of the PV split,one will trend south , and cause a little more suppression! Don’t worry, it’s coming South
 
Many of the 12z eps members are a straight blow torch days 10-15 . Thankfully the mean is muted due to some extremely cold members. Damn the EPS is all over the map


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Tarheel1 said:
Don’t give up hope! Surely with the newly discovered “ daughter “ vortexes of the PV split,one will trend south , and cause a little more suppression! Don’t worry, it’s coming South
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#FamousLastWords
 
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