I wrote this 10 years ago after the last major SSW:
1/23/09 Sudden Strat. Warming: implies cold 2/15-28 SE US
Implies: avg. 6 below norm KATL/entire FEB coldest 22 percentile in GA
The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event centered on 1/23/2009 (which has been described as one of the strongest, if not the strongest, this decade) has MAJOR (COLD) implications for the SE US for the last half of Feb. 2009 based on eight prior similar cases since 1957.
- I analyzed the eight events within 16 days of 1/23: 1/31/58, 1/15/60, 1/28/63, 1/17/68, 1/18/71, 1/31/73, 1/9/77, and 1/23/87.
- supposedly the effect of SSW on the SE US is 3+ weeks later
2nd half of Feb.'s (KATL):
Out of eight, a whopping seven (87.5%) were colder than normal. Regarding the eight combined, they averaged an impressively cold 6 F below normal (which is near average for mid Jan.), 75% were at least 5.5 F colder than normal,and two were a very cold 11.5 below normal!!
Coldest lows (F): 5 in 1958, 8 and 14 in 1963, 15 in 1968, and 16 in 1973.
Snow/IP: 2.7" from 0.63" liquid 1958; 2.6" from 0.45" liquid 1968 (Aside: 1967-8 winter was a weak La Nina)
Because 1977's SSW event was centered on 1/9, 14 days earlier than 2009's event and the earliest by far of the events I analyzed, I do feel that it is worth mentioning some of the specifics from 2/1-14/1977: 6.5 F below normal overall; lows of 18 F on 2/2, 17 F on 2/6, and 15 F on 2/8.
GA as a whole:
For the period 1957-2001 (45 Feb.'s), three of the coldest four GA Feb's were Feb's that followed one of these eight SSW events: 1958 (coldest), 1968 (3rd coldest), and 1963 (4th coldest)!
The other five Feb's: 1977 (eighth coldest), 1973 (10th coldest), 1960 (15th coldest), 1987 (19th coldest), and 1971 (20th coldest). So, even the warmest of these eight Feb's was still 20th coldest (out of the 45 from 1957 through 2001)!
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So, maybe the chances for cold in the SE are higher than I was just thinking. The upcoming major SSW late Dec 2018 will occur ~25 days earlier. So, perhaps this analysis can apply to the 2nd half of Jan. in 2019.