• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

GaStorm said:
I remember that comment and was wondering why it was mentioned. They are not the deep south where you are lucky to score one for the winter. They score multiple times in a good pattern vs here.
Click to expand...

Points NW of 85/40 in NC can score multiple times in “snowy” winters. For Raleigh I can’t recall a winter where we had multiple 6”+ snow events. It’s probably happened but it’s been a long time if it has. I know Mother Nature doesn’t keep score but odds are against Raleigh receiving another big 6”+ event. But, 2-4” event, maybe even a couple happens.

2003, 2004, 2010, 2011 winters had December snow/ice events for NC and all were fairly snowy in Jan/Feb.
 
pcbjr said:
Good luck, my friends ... rooting for ya'! Inbound and white ...
Just remember an old Curmudgeon and return the rooting favor in September when a 'Cane is knockin' and it really needs to go OTS ...
Click to expand...
If the AO dips as much as last year you may have a shot at snow.
 
On a positive note: D8DDDEC0-1DA5-4417-A161-9ACF252D93C9.png
 
NoSnowATL said:
I notice a change in wording regarding SE. No Deep South talk this time. Maybe I’m reading too much into it??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It’s always a safer bet to say upper South and Mid Atlantic, than Deep South, anyday!
 
RollTide18 said:
Would you rather bet on Alabama getting snow or South Carolina?
Click to expand...
Honestly, AL! At this point , when a big pattern change finally happens, the brutal cold will most likely come from the plains and head NW to SE. If y’all get the brutal cold first, and the front hangs up, Bham is sleeting and snowing in the 20s and I’m sunny and 65, it happens a lot!
 
The CFS model has been consistent with this look. SSW event indeed, below normal temps. likely for the eastern US (including the southeastern states) by mid Jan. The new CFS data is now coming in. I'll post the updated map once it's available.
c4e1522f10a557e71a9535bd7a961882.jpg
 
Tarheel1 said:
Honestly, AL! At this point , when a big pattern change finally happens, the brutal cold will most likely come from the plains and head NW to SE. If y’all get the brutal cold first, and the front hangs up, Bham is sleeting and snowing in the 20s and I’m sunny and 65, it happens a lot!
Click to expand...
If and when this 1,000 year blocking pattern sets up we will be ????
 
WxWatch said:
The CFS model has been consistent with this look. SSW event indeed, below normal temps. likely for the eastern US (including the southeastern states) by mid Jan. The new CFS data is now coming in. I'll post the updated map once it's available.
c4e1522f10a557e71a9535bd7a961882.jpg
Click to expand...

Don,
The last few CFS runs I had seen had been ridiculously warm in most of the US, which I obviously thought we’re way out to lunch. And this is despite it having the major SSW. But we need to keep in mind that the CFS is warm biased. I haven’t seen the 2 meter anomalies on the 12Z latest run, however. The H5 look of what you just posted doesn’t seem that warm in the SE US to me. Probably closer to normal.
 
GaWx said:
Don,
The last few CFS runs I had seen had been ridiculously warm in most of the US, which I obviously thought we’re way out to lunch. And this is despite it having the major SSW. But we need to keep in mind that the CFS is warm biased. I haven’t seen the 2 meter anomalies on the 12Z latest run, however. The H5 look of what you just posted doesn’t seem that warm in the SE US to me. Probably closer to normal.
Click to expand...
These are the 2m anomalies, it looks like a lot of places across the east will experience below normal, slightly below normal or near normal temps. depending where you are located. Cold, cold days ahead.
1a330d00ac279576e4fcf9ed6064b63c.gif
 
Folks across TN, KY, WV and VA may get some very light "pingers" from the weak upper disturbance that will pass over tomorrow.
c7fbab36889db347b10853df9aa2dab3.gif
 
Let's see what the 00z models offer, this past winter storm 00z was the best runs, lol who remembers that euro run
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Let's see what the 00z models offer, this past winter storm 00z was the best runs, lol who remembers that euro run
Click to expand...

Pretty sure that was actually a 12z EURO and that run seriously was ridiculous. But 00z and 12z would bring the goods and 6z and 18z would pull that red carpet out from underneath.
 
Gfs is hell bent on rain with temps in upper 40s next Sunday . At least we don’t have a drought


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
That wave is a bowling ball and is going to cut with how the 500 and vort map looks but I'm interested in what the second wave looks like and I'll see later on since I'm going to get in the shower in a minute.

Edit: Hmm, on the surface it's actually better initially but I'd still say no outside of Texas and the northern half of Arkansas here. (and perhaps some CAD areas too at the start)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
That wave is a bowling ball and is going to cut with how the 500 and vort map looks but I'm interested in what the second wave looks like and I'll see later on since I'm going to get in the shower in a minute.

Edit: Hmm, on the surface it's actually better initially but I'd still say no outside of Texas and the northern half of Arkansas here. (and perhaps some CAD areas too at the start)
Click to expand...
Yea no cutter to Chicago this time. Big changes.
 
whatalife said:
Yeah. Not going to happen. To warm and it’s going to cut.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Better run for sure, it still may trend southward depending on how much of the northern stream will be pressing down. There's actually a frontal boundary there from hr. 150 to about hr. 234. That's why there's so much moisture. If this time period trends colder and colder, some places could receive substantial frozen precip.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top