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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

whatalife said:
Strike up the band for the Euro Control...Take w/a grain of salt
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Needs to come into Georgia just a bit more
 
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DarkKnight said:
Let’s see if the ole 18z gfs throws us a bone for gobbler day. We will know in a few minutes.
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Here it is! 384 GFS, still waiting on that pattern change! If this is what you get with blocking, I’m ready for it to be over!
 
Endless cutters, beginning to end! 18z , we toss
 
GaWx said:
Just about every recent gfs op run is warm in the 11-15 for the SE US and much of the country whereas the opposite is true for the last few GEFS/EPS/CDN ens runs! I realize the GFS has a warm bias but this much warmth?
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The error here is the GOA ridge, which in turn digs a trough out west, that’s not the case on the GEFS. The ridging is instead more amplified north of Alaska and poleward. Much better look. Models seem to be handling the blocking a little poorly....it could be right, but we’ll see.

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Jon said:
Models seem to be handling the blocking a little poorly....it could be right
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Jon, I'm trying to put this in to your lingo/realm just to try to present an example (in the most elementary fashion since I'm not Rx qualified even at that low level) ... I've dealt with some folks over the years with Grave's Disease, and the thyroid medicine prescribed to each was either too high or too low at first, and it took some time for those folks to get the balance correct; then they all stabilized and have lived a great life since; maybe the models are like an underdose or overdose of that or any other onset treatment this early on in the season given the "presentation"; perhaps, as I suspect, some model stabilization will come to pass with a little more dose fine tuning, and hopefully that occurs before the whole damn board goes bald from a combination of hair pulling and worry ... or overdosing on fantasy ...
 
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Another GEFS v/s EPS battle. Who you got.

MJO related? EPS high tailing it to phase 3 and GEFS slow rolling through phase 8/1.

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Wow, that Euro control was wild. Fantasy or not, it is the Euro, and nice to see that so early. I think the best take from it is there still are some storm signals showing for the first week of December.
 
Need to watch that piece of energy after the artic blast riding the trough about a week from now, icon showed it now the gfs shows it, interesting for nc but not the most favorable setup
 
I’m surprised this isn’t showing up as ice. Moisture with high pressure in good position to the north. For at least a period of wintry weather you would think
 

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