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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

snowlover91 said:
Get a look like that inside 120 hours and we will be in good shape for a nice storm! Next run will probably lose that storm and replace it with a SE ridge lol.
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IDK, it's been showing signs of a storm in that time frame lately . Same time as last year storm. Not saying it will happen, but something that could be watched
 
I know the models have been going back and forth, but that is better than showing nothing. I think there is a strong signal for a chance at a winter storm here the first part of December.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know the models have been going back and forth, but that is better than showing nothing. I think there is a strong signal for a chance at a winter storm here the first part of December.
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Favorable pattern you mean. I see no such storms other than fantasy ones. Even then the pattern may not be as favorable as initially depicted, but it's still better than heat.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know the models have been going back and forth, but that is better than showing nothing. I think there is a strong signal for a chance at a winter storm here the first part of December.
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Models starting to show a weak little wave with just enough cold air for maybe NW NC into VA. UK is really suppressed into SC but GFS is further north.

Screen Shot 2018-11-24 at 5.12.26 PM.png
 
Perfect placement for a low for a southern snow.
It trends to jump on next frame and go back where it should on the last frame.


623BEA83-0DFE-41CC-B6E6-A962149E6181.png 9AE764ED-974C-47B9-89FF-2742275B7EC2.png 2C712530-BF09-42DA-BF38-EBB148F8427B.png
 
Sure hope Goofy remembers that pattern look in Jan and Feb when the odds are much better climo wise. But get the timing and anything can happen at any time. Sure enjoyed the cad, and today was great too, with the wind backed down. I purely love me some overcast in Nov. Feels like winter ought to feel, even when it's not overly cold.
 
Why does anyone believe anything the GFS says past about day 7 and especially past day 10? (not just talking about this 18Z). Look at how cold it now is vs the SE warmth that was shown just a couple of days ago on most runs. It clearly has had the warmest bias of any of the major models. So, those warm runs turning colder is not a surprise.

For that matter, any details, especially about storms, past about day 7 on most runs of operational models should be taken with a grain. But the GFS has been extra horrible recently.
 
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GaWx said:
Why does anyone believe anything the GFS says past about day 7 and especially past day 10? (not just talking about this 18Z). Look at how cold it now is vs the SE warmth that was shown just a couple of days ago on most runs. It clearly has had the warmest bias of any of the major models. So, those warm runs turning colder is not a surprise.

For that matter, any details, especially about storms, past about day 7 on most runs of operational models should be taken with a grain. But the GFS has been extra horrible recently.
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I don’t believe anything the GFS says within 5 days. Just throught I would share some nice imagine on happy hour GFS.
 
GaWx said:
Why does anyone believe anything the GFS says past about day 7 and especially past day 10? (not just talking about this 18Z). Look at how cold it now is vs the SE warmth that was shown just a couple of days ago on most runs. It clearly has had the warmest bias of any of the major models. So, those warm runs turning colder is not a surprise.

For that matter, any details, especially about storms, past about day 7 on most runs of operational models should be taken with a grain. But the GFS has been extra horrible recently.
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Yeah check out the 850mb NH temperature verification scores.... 0.39 at Day 10. Yikes.

2ebd5d1fc506ed97fc798d85b8f8ca96.jpg


It only gets somewhat decent by Day 6
2d7fd19d1e246e4486d8674173ed8c35.jpg


We can’t trust any operational outside of Day 5 really, and even then things change so frequently with new data... we just aren’t there yet.


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Here's a map of the ice storm that affected the far western piedmont and parts of the mountains late last night & this morning. Lots of reports of downed trees and power lines just east of Asheville. This is already the 2nd significant ice storm of the winter season in western NC and it's only November.
November 23-24 2018 NC Snowmap.png November 14-15 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Favorable pattern you mean. I see no such storms other than fantasy ones. Even then the pattern may not be as favorable as initially depicted, but it's still better than heat.
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Maybe fantasy storms because they are so far out. But if they keep showing up, that is a good sign. Eventually we will see a so-called fantasy storm show up 10 days out, go away, and then pop up again within 5 days. That happens frequently when we do eventually get a winter storm. The fact that the models keep showing something now for the first part of December is a good sign to me.
 
Rain Cold said:
Don’t know how you can’t like the last few frames of the 18z GFS.
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Maybe the GEFS is correct with a blocky pattern. Solar, favorable QBO, nino all point to potential winter blockiness. Little odd seeing a stout Aleutian ridge in a nino though.

FCD4ED2B-F836-4540-943A-602FF12B5AFE.png
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_51.pngHere is the 0z run fantasy snow at 372... I'm curious to see if the Fv-3 GFS 0z run still shows a fantasy storm around the same time frame
 
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