Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

[accu35]

 

[SnowNiner]

Looks like the epo takes over . Same story different winter . EPO driven . I’m all for it as I’ve scored multiple times over the last few years . In fact I’d rather have a -epo vs -nao


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I've always thought the persistence forecast for the -EPO/+PNA pattern we've had for the last 3 years was the way to go this year. However I'm starting to think -NAO may hang around, we'll see.

 

[Kylo]

Would be so nice to get locked into a pattern like that for about a month just once in my life.

Seems like last winter and 2015 were 2 weeks long. I would take a repeat of 2014 and last winter every year. 2014 seemed great, several events over a 3-4 week span.

 

[SnowNiner]

Just saw this on Michael Ventrice's twitter....if we keep the STJ wave train going, I guess fine. Persistence for the win. I'd hate to go northern stream dominate though with no blocking.

 

[Philstorm91]

Doesn't the Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, N. FL) do the best snow wise with a -EPO, +PNA, -AO combo?

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[Brick Tamland]

I agree with everything you said . The -NAO seems to help your area much more than mine but it would be nice for both of them to play nice this year . I’d be all for a backed up flow with southern sliders that just crawl along .


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-NAO is key here based on a study by the NC Climate Office. Posted about it in the winter thread. http://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2018-19-discussion.410/page-46#post-118814

 

[Storm5]

-NAO is key here based on a study by the NC Climate Office. Posted about it in the winter thread. http://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2018-19-discussion.410/page-46#post-118814

Yep it for you sure helps your area


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[Stormdoc]

-NAO is key here based on a study by the NC Climate Office. Posted about it in the winter thread. http://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2018-19-discussion.410/page-46#post-118814

I believe I remember Allan Huffman did a study once, and do not quote me verbatim, but apparently western N.C. has their biggest winter storms with -NAO, while RDU has its best correlated snows with +PNA, although a negative NAO increases winter storm probabilities for the whole state.

 

[Storm5]

No shortage of wet weather for the next two weeks in the 18z gfs


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[Storm5]

No shortage of wet weather for the next two weeks in the 18z gfs


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[Jessy89]

If I’m taking a guess. I don’t see the first week of December producing a winter storm in southeast. Outside the mountains at least

 

[pcbjr]

No shortage of wet weather for the next two weeks in the 18z gfs


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It's a wet bar run, no doubt, but vodka is not in the bartender's stash ... more like a wet martini run ...
... she'll look better after a couple more ...

 

[Arcc]

Doesn't the Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, N. FL) do the best snow wise with a -EPO, +PNA, -AO combo?

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Yes. Most of our big snows feature a wave diving down a large west coast ridge.

 

[Tarheel1]

I can't see that, but I don't like this image very much at all:
View attachment 7565

It’s amazing how the cold always seem to be on the opposite of the earth, than we need it to be! Even when the arctic hounds are unleashed, we get the broke down , 3 legged sled dog, and Europe gets the whole damn Iditarod winning dog team!

 

[Tarheel1]

If I’m taking a guess. I don’t see the first week of December producing a winter storm in southeast. Outside the mountains at least

You could say that about every week from Nov-March, and be right 99.6 % of the time!

 

[SoutheastRidge]

It’s amazing how the cold always seem to be on the opposite of the earth, than we need it to be! Even when the arctic hounds are unleashed, we get the broke down , 3 legged sled dog, and Europe gets the whole damn Iditarod winning dog team!

Well Europe is a lot further north than most of the US.

 

[pcbjr]

It’s amazing how the cold always seem to be on the opposite of the earth, than we need it to be! Even when the arctic hounds are unleashed, we get the broke down , 3 legged sled dog, and Europe gets the whole damn Iditarod winning dog team!

You could say that about every week from Nov-March, and be right 99.6 % of the time!

Well Europe is a lot further north than most of the US.

Could y'all be thankful for the good fortunes you have ... just maybe tonight and tomorrow?

 

[Tarheel1]

Could y'all be thankful for the good fortunes you have ... just maybe tonight and tomorrow?

Yes! Cheers!
No complaining until Friday!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’m thanful for rain and the occasional piece of graupel

 

[NCSNOW]

I believe I remember Allan Huffman did a study once, and do not quote me verbatim, but apparently western N.C. has their biggest winter storms with -NAO, while RDU has its best correlated snows with +PNA, although a negative NAO increases winter storm probabilities for the whole state.

So spot on and right. If i have to choose,give me a + pna over a - nao all day long. Prefer both, but the pac plays a way bigger hand in deteriming or winter fate for better or worse more than the Atlantic. Now just north of me into the MA and espeacilly NE, different story. We all should be licking our chops sitting where we are at currently,looking at the forecasted indicies just one week away from kicking off met winter. Been a long time since we've been sitting in the position we currently find ourselves at as November winds down. Ill cash out and take my chances from here on out.