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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

I’m thankful for Gonzaga! And the 10 minutes of sleet at the onset of a 3” and 34 degree rainfall!
 
Thankful for my solid 1 inch of snow last year. Kinda stung a bit to see north of me get pounded and south of me get pounded and all we got was an inch!
 
That storm last January was very interesting, I remember mets forecasting 1-2 inches for clt north then as the storm happened, they bumped up snow totals at the last minute, was a solid storm, managed to get 7 inches
 
Officially at 19 now in NYC, coldest Thanksgiving in 100+ years! Good times!
 
The 06z FV3 was about to put the US in the freezer . Too bad it’s in fantasy land and will have a massive SER next run
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Storm5 said:
The 06z FV3 was about to put the US in the freezer . Too bad it’s in fantasy land and will have a massive SER next run
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Got to get those ground temps nice and cold before we see any snow sticking to them...


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I'm one of the weirdos that likes sleet storms.... It allows me to use my imagination... if we get 1 inch of sleet, I consider it as 5 inches of snow packed down into 1 inch of massive crust.
 
cd2play said:
I'm one of the weirdos that likes sleet storms.... It allows me to use my imagination... if we get 1 inch of sleet, I consider it as 5 inches of snow packed down into 1 inch of massive crust.
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The best storms are 3-6” snows, with a 1/4” freezing rain/sleet crust on top!
Actually, the Jan 88 storm , ended as some freezing drizzle or rain and put a crust on my 16” of snow!!
 
Tarheel1 said:
The best storms are 3-6” snows, with a 1/4” freezing rain/sleet crust on top!
Actually, the Jan 88 storm , ended as some freezing drizzle or rain and put a crust on my 16” of snow!!
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Yep just like the January 2011 storm. We had 4" of snow and sleet on top. It didn't completely melt for 10 days !
 
Jon said:
It can be easily gone the next run...but when ensemble members are spitting out decent snows, it’s only a matter of time before the Op throws one down.

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That does look nice . The first part of December has been showing up as a time to watch for a whle, too.
 
Storm5 said:
Winning..... said no one
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So we went from a possible wintry threat around the 1st of December, now it’s looking like torch city! Magical
 
Tarheel1 said:
So we went from a possible wintry threat around the 1st of December, now it’s looking like torch city! Magical
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You should realize by now these run change every day, especially more than a week out. To paraphrase a saying from the great Dean Smith, if you live and die with every run, you're going to be dead a lot.
 
Euro trying to show Brent some love on the last day of November.


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Just about every recent gfs op run is warm in the 11-15 for the SE US and much of the country whereas the opposite is true for the last few GEFS/EPS/CDN ens runs! I realize the GFS has a warm bias but this much warmth?
 
As far as the models showing warmth for December isn’t that what most predicted even months ago? A warm December followed by a near normal January and very cold February is what I thought most were predicting.
 
olhausen said:
As far as the models showing warmth for December isn’t that what most predicted even months ago? A warm December followed by a near normal January and very cold February is what I thought most were predicting.
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But the model consensus is anything but warm in the 11-15. The GFS operational consensus is what has been consistently warm.
 
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