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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Webberweather53 said:
For early Dec storms, I’d gladly recycle Dec 2-3 1896 over and over again
:)
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A perfect snowstorm for Charlotte - Snow from start to finish, temperature steady at 24° throughout the storm, and a heavy wind-whipped snow that reduced visibility at times to one half block. Chester, SC received 16" of snow. Incredible to think this snowstorm nearly occurred in November.
 
Snowfan said:
View attachment 7552
:weenie::weenie::weenie:
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Just do mind everyone that is Ensemble member 2. The rest aren't nearly as exciting but that's where the map webber posted is derived from. Several members have something but it's at the end. It's like looking at your 384 on the GFS and saying it looks promising.
 
Webberweather53 said:
In today's episode of fantasy snowstorms... it's January 1988 part 2! :eek::weenie:
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I've experienced many snowstorms in the Memphis area but this one was my favorite. This storm dumped 10" to 14" of heavy snow across Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Southern Missouri, Northern Mississippi, Northern Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia.Temperatures in the wake of the storm dropped to near zero. We may never experience another storm to affect such a large area particularly in the south again.

I drove a 1987 Toyota 4-Wheel drive truck and the snow came all the way up to my door. in some locations.
 
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png
Something very close
 
12z fv3 still looks good, different from the gfs
 
GaWx said:
Most are going to love the colder 12Z EPS 10+ day run.
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Looks like the epo takes over . Same story different winter . EPO driven . I’m all for it as I’ve scored multiple times over the last few years . In fact I’d rather have a -epo vs -nao


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Storm5 said:
Looks like the epo takes over . Same story different winter . EPO driven . I’m all for it as I’ve scored multiple times over the last few years . In fact I’d rather have a -epo bs -nao


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The one difference I'd point out (that's favorable, IMO) is that this year, we have actual evidence of a -NAO and there is evidence that suggests it will not be a stranger throughout the winter. This, if it comes to pass like we hope, should link up with the -EPO and produce a more favorable pattern for winter weather than the few previous years. Either way, I'm good with the EPO helping to seed Canada with cold. I'm always in the "make the cold available first, then worry about the storm stuff" camp.
 
Rain Cold said:
The one difference I'd point out (that's favorable, IMO) is that this year, we have actual evidence of a -NAO and there is evidence that suggests it will not be a stranger throughout the winter. This, if it comes to pass like we hope, should link up with the -EPO and produce a more favorable pattern for winter weather than the few previous years. Either way, I'm good with the EPO helping to seed Canada with cold. I'm always in the "make the cold available first, then worry about the storm stuff" camp.
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I agree with everything you said . The -NAO seems to help your area much more than mine but it would be nice for both of them to play nice this year . I’d be all for a backed up flow with southern sliders that just crawl along .


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Storm5 said:
I agree with everything you said . The -NAO seems to help your area much more than mine but it would be nice for both of them to play nice this year . I’d be all for a backed up flow with southern sliders that just crawl along .


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Would be so nice to get locked into a pattern like that for about a month just once in my life.
 
Storm5 said:
Looks like the epo takes over . Same story different winter . EPO driven . I’m all for it as I’ve scored multiple times over the last few years . In fact I’d rather have a -epo vs -nao


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I've always thought the persistence forecast for the -EPO/+PNA pattern we've had for the last 3 years was the way to go this year. However I'm starting to think -NAO may hang around, we'll see.
 
Just saw this on Michael Ventrice's twitter....if we keep the STJ wave train going, I guess fine. Persistence for the win. I'd hate to go northern stream dominate though with no blocking.

upload_2018-11-21_16-24-43.png
 
Doesn't the Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, N. FL) do the best snow wise with a -EPO, +PNA, -AO combo?

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Brick Tamland said:
-NAO is key here based on a study by the NC Climate Office. Posted about it in the winter thread. http://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2018-19-discussion.410/page-46#post-118814
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I believe I remember Allan Huffman did a study once, and do not quote me verbatim, but apparently western N.C. has their biggest winter storms with -NAO, while RDU has its best correlated snows with +PNA, although a negative NAO increases winter storm probabilities for the whole state.
 
If I’m taking a guess. I don’t see the first week of December producing a winter storm in southeast. Outside the mountains at least
 
Storm5 said:
No shortage of wet weather for the next two weeks in the 18z gfs


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It's a wet bar run, no doubt, but vodka is not in the bartender's stash ... more like a wet martini run ... o_O
... she'll look better after a couple more ... :eek:
 
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Rain Cold said:
I can't see that, but I don't like this image very much at all:
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It’s amazing how the cold always seem to be on the opposite of the earth, than we need it to be! Even when the arctic hounds are unleashed, we get the broke down , 3 legged sled dog, and Europe gets the whole damn Iditarod winning dog team! :mad:
 
Jessy89 said:
If I’m taking a guess. I don’t see the first week of December producing a winter storm in southeast. Outside the mountains at least
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You could say that about every week from Nov-March, and be right 99.6 % of the time!
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s amazing how the cold always seem to be on the opposite of the earth, than we need it to be! Even when the arctic hounds are unleashed, we get the broke down , 3 legged sled dog, and Europe gets the whole damn Iditarod winning dog team! :mad:
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Well Europe is a lot further north than most of the US.
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s amazing how the cold always seem to be on the opposite of the earth, than we need it to be! Even when the arctic hounds are unleashed, we get the broke down , 3 legged sled dog, and Europe gets the whole damn Iditarod winning dog team! :mad:
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Tarheel1 said:
You could say that about every week from Nov-March, and be right 99.6 % of the time!
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SoutheastRidge said:
Well Europe is a lot further north than most of the US.
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Could y'all be thankful for the good fortunes you have ... just maybe tonight and tomorrow? :cool:
 
Stormdoc said:
I believe I remember Allan Huffman did a study once, and do not quote me verbatim, but apparently western N.C. has their biggest winter storms with -NAO, while RDU has its best correlated snows with +PNA, although a negative NAO increases winter storm probabilities for the whole state.
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So spot on and right. If i have to choose,give me a + pna over a - nao all day long. Prefer both, but the pac plays a way bigger hand in deteriming or winter fate for better or worse more than the Atlantic. Now just north of me into the MA and espeacilly NE, different story. We all should be licking our chops sitting where we are at currently,looking at the forecasted indicies just one week away from kicking off met winter. Been a long time since we've been sitting in the position we currently find ourselves at as November winds down. Ill cash out and take my chances from here on out.
 
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