It seems like climatology favors snowfall in the Deep South earlier in the winter than central/eastern NC. This wasn't just last year - If I remember correctly the Deep South saw December snowfalls three years in a row from 2008-10 when 2008 and 2009 were duds here.
No. This is the one where he predicted and I quote: "Colossal amounts" of snow - if I remember correctly, I think he was calling for 12-16" of snow in Wake County and RDU received a Trace. Now in all fairness, this was an epic bust by NWP and NWS Raleigh has a great case study on it.
Wow, that is awesome. Well, not for Raleigh but it's crazy how much the totals dropped and so quickly during each run. Weren't they calling for a storm in Charlotte at one point too?
Van Denton in Greensboro was calling for a foot of snow. I went out and bought a shovel! I jinxed it! We got partly cloudy.
I agree, both storms probably taught a lot of Mets in the Carolina's a thing or two about how easily things can turn on your forecast around these parts. I am sure the Carolina crusher prompted a lot of Mets to assume that the storm in early Dec, 2000 would behave the same as the Jan 2000 event and moisture would creep further West than what the last second shift Eastward was showing.
A local met in Baton Rouge, Josh Eachus, has his forecasts done the same way. He basically overviews the Nino Nina trends and forecasts from that. He doesn't bring up any other factors.
Agree this could be an opportunity *IF* the trend towards more separation between the initial northern stream wave -- which ushers in a potent cold front -- and a follow up northern stream wave and a southern stream wave continues. We need that first wave to separate and get out ahead of the second northern wave so that 1) we have the cold air in place out ahead of the system and 2) keep it suppressed by acting as a 50/50 low. There is also some potential for a phase/interaction between northern and southern streams if the stars truly align.
