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Pattern Jammin' January

Well look that is hope!
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The FV3 is a big deal anywho which could trend much larger. Now as a disclaimer all of this except on the NW edge is ZR and Sleet, but it should this may get interesting.
 
FV3: still no cold dominated pattern as of yet (per 12z) but instead cold is more in and out meaning averaging close to normal
 
GaWx said:
FV3: still no cold dominated pattern as of yet (per 12z) but instead cold is more in and out meaning averaging close to normal
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Anallogs, about to be going down with the burning unicorns, in the burning dumpster!
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
FV3 says yes to a winter storm for the western parts of the southeast this run. Think it's the best it's looked so far and honestly I'm going to be ill with this one if it works out as the way it looks on the model as I don't really want to travel this soon and it has me missing snow in Lafayette by 9 days.
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If this verified, MBY might see some sleet. Here's hoping!

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As far as I’m concerned there is no threat until there consistency. And even if there is a threat improvements would have to be made to put many of us in play


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Posted this in the banter but it's relevant to this thread.

Latest GEFS compared with what we all were hoping for. We got the Npac low correct. :mad:

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We need the s/w in the southwest to dig more and miss the northern wave. Would end up a much bigger deal.
 

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Nc is usually not favored in these events, for example last december 8-9 we had a cold rain then a flizzard, not saying that other times it's worked but most of the time we need a cad, hope the other parts of the southeast can get something so were even
 
The moisture seems to be available. The cold is in question


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Webberweather53 said:
I know it’s easy to get lost in all the big dogs that winter but 2009-10 was not wall-to-wall cold we had a pretty formidable thaw in January 2010 that ended with the storm on the 29th & 30th. I still like the idea I alluded to last week where the next significant threat for wintry weather around here shows up when the MJO reaches phase 7, that puts us in the 2nd-3rd week of January (Jan 7-20)
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Precisely the time period I mentioned also. I'm in total agreement (no surprise) haha.
 
12z FV3, that shortwave is still there at the western ridge axis. It's still possible that a low may develop on the tail end of the frontal boundary. The 12z ICON does have the low pressure system, but the low is north, which isn't accurate. If there will be a low pressure system that does develop, it would remain in the southern stream in early Jan. It's still possible that there would be over running and then the actual storm system. If that's the case, some places are going to see a substantial frozen accumulations.
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We can work with this...as long as we get a shortwave. GFS is warm same time frame. IDK about you, but I’m leaning Euro.
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Jessy89 said:
The moisture seems to be available. The cold is in question


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It's going to depend on how far south and east the boundary will stall. Of course, the further south and east the boundary is, the colder it will be further south and east.
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Where’s the track of the the low in that storm?
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It's not really a storm, it's moisture that is associated with the boundary. I mean, there could be a weak low that's embedded that tracks along the boundary. Sometimes, when there is moisture along the boundary, there can be a main low that develops on the tail end of the boundary.
 
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