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Pattern Jammin' January

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Only people this may favor is north Alabama Mississippi and middle Tennessee. Outside of there it’s way to warm. I’d love for things to change though


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WxWatch said:
It's too early in the stage to determine the temps. At this point, it's important to look for trends at H5. The track of low will propably be further south than what the FV3 is modeling.
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I agree, if you take a look at this temp maps you have plenty of cold air to the north that just gets washed away quickly in 24 hours. I don’t trust any temperatures maps until it gets within 5-7 days. At this point and time on this storm it is right at 8 days out and we should have a better judgement on the temps by Saturday night 0z models runs. B89789D2-7CCB-4344-9743-A160255F9979.png
 
GEFS doesn’t look bad out past 160 but I hate how that western ridge keeps moving east with each run. It’s killing our chances of a deep trough setting up in the east but really is right in line with 2018/2019 winter outlooks. Patience, I guess
 
 
Euro weeklies precip. days 16-45 (Jan 12 through Feb 11) for ATL, RDU, BMX, GNV, SAV all slightly above normal:

ATL: 5.0" vs 4.5" norm
RDU: 4.1" vs 3.2" norm
BMX: 5.0" vs 4.7" norm
GNV: 3.6" vs 3.2" norm
SAV: 3.7" vs 3.3" norm
 
Also thought this was interesting. 5 day period January 21 from the past 3 weeklies run. Last Thursday we had a typical canonical nino look, then Monday was kind of meh with andoned Npac low, SER and western trough. But today was an improvement from Monday with HLB but still no Npac low. Maybe strat starting to work.

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Storm5 said:
Had a totally different airmass behind it as well . This system has upper 30s and low 40s the following day . In 2014 in was in the 20s and low 30s the following few days


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I was -1 a couple of mornings after that one not to mention we were below freezing for days at a time before.
 
Kylo said:
Also thought this was interesting. 5 day period January 21 from the past 3 weeklies run. Last Thursday we had a typical canonical nino look, then Monday was kind of meh with andoned Npac low, SER and western trough. But today was an improvement from Monday with HLB but still no Npac low. Maybe strat starting to work.

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The strat usually warms the most about 1-2 weeks after a phase 7 MJO event, the timing of the SSW this year is a little early compared to the stereotypical case but it seems to suggest perhaps that there's a chance this warming event could continue on perhaps even into mid-January with lagged tropospheric impacts...
SSWEs & MJO phase.png
 
Interestingly enough, my NWS point forecast is now making mention of a slight chance of rain and snow showers for the night Jan 2nd/3rd. It's pretty uncommon to get that kind of forecast down in south La, however remote the chance or far out the forecast. I've got to keep two eyes on this system over the next few days. :)
 
00z cmc has a pretty juicy system . Works out well for tenn and the mid Atlantic


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Oh wow, 0z GFS, the low has closed off out over the SW at hr 126. This run is looking like it will the one. There will probably be a lot more over running as well ahead of main low.
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Think a good run is on the way for Arkansas/North Miss/Tennessee, maybe other areas, still wish the southern wave would delay and slip underneath the northern wave. Maybe there's time for that?
 
So who do you believe on the cold push. The candian or the gfs??? It’s night and day between the 2.

Canadian 748061CD-D66B-4F11-8538-2B31FBEB4BEC.png
GFS
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Perfect miller A like track unfortunately there’s a lack of cold air


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