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Pattern Jammin' January

deltadog03 said:
models are super inconsistent right now for sure. I will say it’s a little concerning to see that we are pushing that time frame back again. I will also say I don’t like seeing the SOI so + We need some drops in that to help keep pushing things along. Kudos to the GFS and GEFS for stalling out the MJO in the super crappy phases. Y’all correct me if I’m wrong, but we need some good NEG bursts to keep pushing the MJO eastward right?
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The only other Dec +SOI for a nino was 1969 and it was barely positive but then went solidly negative in Jan/Feb. I keep referring to this winter as a nino winter but the SOI says otherwise. Strange winter, model chaos right now, but it gives us something to do in lieu of tracking a threat.

EPS does show days 5-10 look to have a -SOI, so hopefully that's a start of something.

14-km EPS Global Globe MSLP Norm Anomaly 168.png
 
Intersting, the Euro and EPS are heading back in the other direction. Showing much more reoccuring blocking over Greenland and definitely are not warm.
 
Arcc said:
Intersting, the Euro and EPS are heading back in the other direction. Showing much more reoccuring blocking over Greenland and definitely are not warm.
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I almost vomited looking at the EPS. Good news is it only goes out to January 12, we still have just over half of met winter left to turn things around.
 
I will reiterate what some have already said...For most on this board the best changes for winter weather have always been the back half of winter. I see nothing with the guidance/models that suggest that wont happen. The pattern change is coming and I bet it's here around the middle of January. So lets sit back and relax.
 
Storm5 said:
The fantasy continues . Kick the can , march is gonna be cold

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I like unicorns. Last winter it happened to late, or the daughter vortices are located in the wrong spots. We finally get a major SSW early in winter, daughter vorts in a great spot but doesn't propagate down.

I would give up snow for the next decade if the last half of winter we could get blocking, legit blocking, -AO/-NAO with a Npac low somewhere just west of GOA. Unfortunately we won't get blocking and we will have to settle for lots of snow.

Sentence above is sarcasm, slight sarcasm though.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I think the MJO is controlling winter right now, once she moves into cold phases in mid January we all will be happy, models are still pointing to that “ backloaded winter” we all like to say. Weeklies pointed to it last night as well. We are getting closer so as always we sit a wait and wait. Good times ahead boys and girls. I will stay optimistic until Webb or 1300 tells me to jump.


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I know this is a highly uninformed and uneducated statement but we can’t trust models two weeks out, how are we supposed to trust anything that points to a backloaded winter a month from now. Sounds like a sham.


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ATLwxfan said:
I know this is a highly uninformed and uneducated statement but we can’t trust models two weeks out, how are we supposed to trust anything that points to a backloaded winter a month from now. Sounds like a sham.


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The same way we have trusted them for the past 100 years I guess. Weather is unpredictable but there are clues and hints to what might happen. That’s why we are all here right? Meteorology is the only line of work were you can go 50/50 and not lose your job.


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ATLwxfan said:
His previous tweet was literally talking about how divergent the models were. LOL


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I like him and follow him but his track record isn’t great, I think more of the smart people are guessing on what might happen just like we are. I think we should keep a eye on JB, he has been right on for this winter so far which is surprising because of his cold bias.


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The 12z icon is a nice hot for central Tennessee next Wednesday / Thursday


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GEFS is moving in the wrong direction. Definitely some can kicking going on. smdh
 
The models have been a train wreck this year. Shows a pattern change then next day show warm weather. And delay everything by a week. I hope the pattern does change and it gets cold. Or this process may continue and before we know it winter is gone without another winter storm.


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I do not not want a freezing march/a cold april/ and a cool may, we had snow last april here In nc, melted as soon as the sun came out, would rather have winter in winter and spring in spring, unfortunately it's probably to much to ask for
 
Jessy89 said:
The models have been a train wreck this year. Shows a pattern change then next day show warm weather. And delay everything by a week. I hope the pattern does change and it gets cold. Or this process may continue and before we know it winter is gone without another winter storm.


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Some areas still haven't seen a winter storm...these models are beyond ridiculous it's definitely a head scratcher...
 
so do you guys think there is a real possibility this winter could end up being nonexistent?
 
Spurs up said:
so do you guys think there is a real possibility this winter could end up being nonexistent?
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It’s not time to cliff dive yet. But it’s a possibility yes. But also still possible pattern changes and we have a nice big storm to.


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Man that system next Wednesday / Thursday is gonna be another heavy rain maker for many . Easily another inch - inch and half . The cold rain continues


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Storm5 said:
Man that system next Wednesday / Thursday is gonna be another heavy rain maker for many . Easily another inch - inch and half . The cold rain continues


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It seems like so far that's all we ever been good for is rain which is frustrating especially with all this moisture we been getting week after week... Stj definitely haven't lost its legs....
 
Spurs up said:
so do you guys think there is a real possibility this winter could end up being nonexistent?
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Probably Not.I could see late January/February being a very good period for winter weather.If we end up being stuck on the same pattern in late January,then it's very possible that we may have a "non existent"winter.
 
Looks like DT and Robert won’t say anything about this, threat is dead, let’s continue to kick the proverbial can down the road.
 
Spurs up said:
so do you guys think there is a real possibility this winter could end up being nonexistent?
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I mean would it be a horrible thing if we didnt have a winter ? Think about all the homeless or the poor who cant afford to keep their houses warm. And what about people who have to work outdoors? I am pretty sure none of those people would mind a mild winter.
 
IF this closed off low materializes and produces, I'm pretty sure the ICON was the first model to show the Low closing off on wed 12z....I thought it was smokin somethin, but it might have found an acorn? However it was much slower.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I mean would it be a horrible thing if we didnt have a winter ? Think about all the homeless or the poor who cant afford to keep their houses warm. And what about people who have to work outdoors? I am pretty sure none of those people would mind a mild winter.
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come on man, this isn't the place for that...good grief...
 
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