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Pattern Jammin' January

12z CMC brings a nice surprise. CMC is by itself, GFS and FV3 have different looks during that time.
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DarkKnight said:
Starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel?.?.?.?.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure. This is what the models were doing about 7 days ago when they were showing a cold first week of january. In time we should evolve to a look like this but im not certain we are only 12-15 days out

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Seems like the past couple of weeks when the EPS takes a step forward the next run it takes 5 steps back. But, it's got to start somewhere.

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Pretty good snow mean too.

14-km EPS Probability Precip Snow United States Snowfall 360.png
 
Below is the wxbell winter forecast: note the sub -5 over the heart of the SE. I'll be lenient and just call it -5:

Per the latest very warm forecasts for the first half of Jan of near +5 combined with Dec that will end up near +3, the period 12/1-1/13 is projected to be near +3.75. So, what would Wxbell need during 1/14-2/28 to get DJF down to -5 there? Near -13.5. Has this ever happened at, say, ATL? Let's see:

Top 8 coldest KATL 1/14-2/28 (9) since 1878-79:

1905: -9.9 (weak El Nino)
1940: -9.4 (weak El Nino)
1963: -9.4 (cold neutral)
1977: -9.2 (weak El Nino)
1978: -8.9 (weak El Nino)
1895: -8.1 (weak La Nina)
1902: -7.2 (cold neutral)
1885: -7.0 (weak El Nino)


So, the coldest on record is -9.9. If that were to occur this time, ATL and nearby areas would end up DJF only down to -3. By the way, all 8 of these had 12/1-1/13 that were -1 or colder vs the current projection of +3.75.

Conclusion: Wxbell will not get their -5. However, 4 of the 5 coldest were during weak El Nino and these were in
the ~-9 to -10 range. Getting that would get KATL down to -3. Then again, all 4 of these had -3 or colder for 12/1-1/13 vs the current projection of +3.75. So, getting -9 to -10 and thus the -3 for DJF will be very tough considering today's background state though not out of the realm of semireasonable possibilities. A more realistic hope though would probably be something like -6 to -7 for 1/14-2/28, which would get DJF down to the -1 to -2 range.

So, due to the near almost +4 for the first half of winter, I think the heart of the SE US has virtually no chance now of a -5 for DJF as it would take unprecedented cold going back nearly 150 years. However, the weak El Nino gives a good shot at a cold 1/14-2/28. But even with that, the best they could do now for DJF per recorded history is -3 with -1 to -2 being a more reasonable hope.
 

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The storm system Jan 10th bares watching. It’s not far off on gfs and the cmc shows something


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That’s a strong clipper coming down Jan 8th. See where it goes on gfs


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GaWx said:
Below is the wxbell winter forecast: note the sub -5 over the heart of the SE. I'll be lenient and just call it -5:

Per the latest very warm forecasts for the first half of Jan of near +5 combined with Dec that will end up near +3, the period 12/1-1/13 is projected to be near +3.75. So, what would Wxbell need during 1/14-2/28 to get DJF down to -5 there? Near -13.5. Has this ever happened at, say, ATL? Let's see:

Top 8 coldest KATL 1/14-2/28 (9) since 1878-79:

1905: -9.9 (weak El Nino)
1940: -9.4 (weak El Nino)
1963: -9.4 (cold neutral)
1977: -9.2 (weak El Nino)
1978: -8.9 (weak El Nino)
1895: -8.1 (weak La Nina)
1902: -7.2 (cold neutral)
1885: -7.0 (weak El Nino)


So, the coldest on record is -9.9. If that were to occur this time, ATL and nearby areas would end up DJF only down to -3. By the way, all 8 of these had 12/1-1/13 that were -1 or colder vs the current projection of +3.75.

Conclusion: Wxbell will not get their -5. However, 4 of the 5 coldest were during weak El Nino and these were in
the ~-9 to -10 range. Getting that would get KATL down to -3. Then again, all 4 of these had -3 or colder for 12/1-1/13 vs the current projection of +3.75. So, getting -9 to -10 and thus the -3 for DJF will be very tough considering today's background state though not out of the realm of semireasonable possibilities. A more realistic hope though would probably be something like -6 to -7 for 1/14-2/28, which would get DJF down to the -1 to -2 range.

So, due to the near almost +4 for the first half of winter, I think the heart of the SE US has virtually no chance now of a -5 for DJF as it would take unprecedented cold going back nearly 150 years. However, the weak El Nino gives a good shot at a cold 1/14-2/28. But even with that, the best they could do now for DJF per recorded history is -3 with -1 to -2 being a more reasonable hope.
Click to expand...
:p
Larry,
Saw it snow once on the 4th of July ...
... but that was on the Canadian border ... :D
Best,
Phil

~~~~~~~~

EDIT:

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GFS gets a 1038 to the NC/SC border at 240 then everything goes *poof* I’m intrigued...that is until everything changes in 6 hours
 
Jan 9th and 10th is a time to watch cold air is around. I’f that piece of moisture kicks out faster something could happen


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The 18 GEFS looks better than what it has been recently.The pattern still needs work for a sustained cold,but the Pacific is is starting to look better.Lets if GEFS holds for the 0Z runs.

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I posted a surface map earlier today of the CMC of this disturbance. If this look continues, there maybe something wintry around the 8th into the 9th. Yes, the CMC can be bad at somethings, but it can perform well with somethings. Also, the GEFS does have a colder look during that time period as well. I'd wait a couple of days before calling anything with higher confidence for frozen precip during that time period. The Euro does have a storm system during that time period, but it's way warm. So, there is model disagreement, anything is possible.
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