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Pattern Jammin' January

The 12Z GEFS doesn't look good compared to earlier runs until you get out to very unreliable and cold biased day 15 or so. That's when the mirage of a very tall western ridge reappears.
 
WxWatch said:
Here we go, bring it in FV3!
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It did , 50s and more rain ️


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So we have the GEFS that is coming down off it’s unrealistic off the chart for the MJO forecast and now isn’t as bad in the longer range. And we have the eps favorable in the longer range and more realistic in short term (ie like the GEFS) moving the MJO through. Funny thing is none of the models look “right” or in tune with what phases the MJO roll through.
 
deltadog03 said:
So we have the GEFS that is coming down off it’s unrealistic off the chart for the MJO forecast and now isn’t as bad in the longer range. And we have the eps favorable in the longer range and more realistic in short term (ie like the GEFS) moving the MJO through. Funny thing is none of the models look “right” or in tune with what phases the MJO roll through.
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Bingo!
 
pcbjr said:
Tony,
I try cases. I look and listen; body language and inflection. From that and not the words themselves I know where things are going.
Weather is much the same; one needs a 6th sense. Models are 1 - 5. Not 6. Models are a tool, and a good one. But not the end-all.
What's going on with trees, birds, wind, sky and on and on in October and November are just as, if not far, more telling.
Spoken with truth and conviction by an old
Curmudgeon,
Phil
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Phil, I've always liked communing with the birds and bees to determine the weather. One of my favorite sleet storms occurred while I was doing the birds and the bees, and, thus, I was still awake when the heavy rain turned to heavy sleet. Lots to be said for the birds and bees, even for old, old men and women, lol.
66 today, and my point forecast still has rain and 30's for Thru night, but now more rain and higher 30's. Still plenty of time to change again, and that's a pretty close time frame. The idea of depression because models are saying something about the weather in a month is pretty silly. If a rock from space causes a fire ball earth, if won't snow for decades. If all the volcanoes on earth go off at the same time, it won't stop snowing for decades, lol. You can't predict all the factors involved, thank goodness. The most amazing thing about weather is it can't be predicted with any certainty. Period. Even up close..right in your face, things change. I don't pay attention to anything out past 3 days, except for entertainment, and I know for a fact the best stuff predicted within 24 hours, usually won't happen anyway, lol. It's the knife, and the twist, it's Lucy and the football..... that you can almost count on, but it's not fool proof. Sometimes you win!!!
 
GaWx said:
More precisely, the longest strong Nov-Mar phase 5 on record is only 8 days (1/1990) and we’re headed to 14+!
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Kind of like the minimums recently that didn't bring about a global cooling...yet! The results will only be perceived well after the fact. But, since nature loves to swing the pendulum, there might be a quick bounce back. Maybe 14 plus days leads to two weeks under a white blanket for the south, lol. One thing about extremes....they breed extremes.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS doesn't look good compared to earlier runs until you get out to very unreliable and cold biased day 15 or so. That's when the mirage of a very tall western ridge reappears.
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The next couple of weeks are going to suck watching the failed attempts to roll positive changes forward.

Works both ways though, I remember 2014, models keep wanting to warm things up and it didn’t until March. From mid-Jan to early March it was as cold as a period I could remember.
 
Kylo said:
The next couple of weeks are going to suck watching the failed attempts to roll positive changes forward.

Works both ways though, I remember 2014, models keep wanting to warm things up and it didn’t until March. From mid-Jan to early March it was as cold as a period I could remember.
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I'm really interested in the 1/10 period. I think that is our first fork in the road time frame going forward.

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SD said:
I'm really interested in the 1/10 period. I think that is our first fork in the road time frame going forward.

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Agree. If we get to 1/10-15 and we are still scratching our head on when/if this pattern will turn then I may start to worry about the first part of February.

But yeah...right now it sure looks like we are so screwed.

This tweet just about says it all.

 
Kylo said:
Agree. If we get to 1/10-15 and we are still scratching our head on when/if this pattern will turn then I may start to worry about the first part of February.

But yeah...right now it sure looks like we are so screwed.

This tweet just about says it all.

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The fv3 is much more euro/eps like in the longer range which is disappointing

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I haven’t seen any model in a long time show any good pattern on the horizon with any consistency. I have, however, seen tons of consistently crappy patterns of indefinite duration being displayed. Using the logic that the models just can’t be trusted because they’re inconsistent, or they can’t be trusted because they aren’t handling the mjo or the SSW or mountain torques or jet extensions or whatever correctly, is irrelevant, IMO. I think they’ve proven that they can be trusted showing crap because they have been showing crap, and a crapload is crap of indefinite duration is what we have.
 
So who thinks the southeast sees more snow this year? I’m talking Atlanta,Greenville, Charlotte, Columbia, Raleigh, Alabama, Mississippi


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Jessy89 said:
So who thinks the southeast sees more snow this year? I’m talking Atlanta,Greenville, Charlotte, Columbia, Raleigh, Alabama, Mississippi


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Well, Columbia is certainly not seeing any snow. Lol
 
I don’t think the LR can be totally believed because we are trying to finally see the MJO moving. To me until they figure out that, we are going to see highly volatile solutions.
 
SD said:
Ouch
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If this keeps up, it’s going to be nearly impossible to get good arctic air into a favorable position without some serious HP moderation. With the way guidance is looking atm, we are going to need some major help and good fortune from here on out I’m afraid
 
Rain Cold said:
Using the logic that the models just can’t be trusted because they’re inconsistent
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I see a lot of frustration and some terrible modeling by most models for the 8-10 day and especially the 10-15 day time frame. They can’t be trusted and that’s 100% correct logic.

Now, how you interpret that is up for debate. Heat does largely win out most of the time, and a lot of models have a cold bias in general, but I’ll have to disagree on trusting a full on torch for the LR just because heat is more believable to the eye.

If the models were showing a spectacular pattern but have been all over the place, the same people will be yelling not to trust the 10-15 cold because the models are inconsistent. So why the double standard?

Also, CR don’t take this the wrong way. We go way back. Just seeing a lot of the same stuff on twitter too..calling out the optimistic folks. I don’t really get it.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Don’t get me wrong, I really like Joe. I just think it’s funny that his his forecast verification is hinging on the SSW. There was no talk of SSW when his WXBell forecast came out many months ago. Now it’s SSW or major forecast bust. Why before the what?
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In fairness to him tho, every forecast I saw had a cold to very cold Jan for us.
 
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