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Pattern Fabulous February

Sleet City USA said:
So when does our next window for wintry weather start? Seems like the next 2 weeks are a no go. After that?
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Id keep an eye on next weekend. Not much jumping off the page but swinging the northern stream through and building in a near 1040 high with an active stj is at least enough to wonder about. Chances are though its an insitu or dying wedge in the cad regions and a less cold rain elsewhere. After that its probably 2/15-2/20

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That ice storm in the Carolinas looks crippling on fv3. Of course it won’t verify


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Maybe the PV becoming strong over the pole is exactly what we need per the GEFS since the SSW didn't help.
 
No shortage of precip with the GFS/FV3/GEFS next 2 weeks or so with widespread 2 to 4 inches for the entire southeast except for FL.
 
Sleet City USA said:
So when does our next window for wintry weather start? Seems like the next 2 weeks are a no go. After that?
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I'm not sure about anyone else, but I'm watching the 6th - 8th window. No winter storm is there on the models, but that's the next window for another cold shot.
 
Two fantasy storms on FV3. CAD setup at 270 and a TN/Carolinas + north AL/MS storm at 360
 
Sleet City USA said:
Two fantasy storms on FV3. CAD setup at 270 and a TN/Carolinas + north AL/MS storm at 360
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Well, at least we have some fantasy storms out there, but it is way out there in lala land. Maybe we will actually get one now that it isn't all about the polar vortex and extreme cold.
 
Special weather statement just put out for a possible dusting of snow tonight up here. Obviously with very frigid temps it will stick to everything if it does snow. Temp is at 23 and will only go down so maybe I’ll do better tonight as nothing stuck last night. I’m not liking the 50s and 60s showing up this weekend into next week that’s for sure. Hopefully it’s short lived as some models are hinting.
 
DarkKnight said:
Should we fall for it again?? I want too. But like 90 percent of us got burned on this last event. View attachment 14359
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Well at least this one doesn’t look like cold chasing moisture, cause no way am I falling for a cold chasing moisture set up again. Plus, there’s a high in the plains with this one so we wouldn’t have to be reliant on the PV.
 
RollTide18 said:
Well at least this one doesn’t look like cold chasing moisture, cause no way am I falling for a cold chasing moisture set up again. Plus, there’s a high in the plains with this one so we wouldn’t have to be reliant on the PV.
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Yes, I argee. I totally different setup, it will probably be gone next run. It has ice storm like setup on look on this also. But we shall see. ???
 
Based on TT maps I can’t tell if the euro has that storm at the end of next week, but looks like it has the cold with a 1047 High dropping out of Canada. My takeaway from tonight’s model runs are that at least the cold air looks to return by the end of next week, but of course a lot can and will change by then.DB433B62-BA51-4721-824B-CB57BAA06DA1.png
 
Also this is a 1040 high to the north. So I don’t thing that system will cut. But we all this is speculation and will be gone by 12z.
 
tonysc said:
Well, looks like South Carolina can just go jump off a cliff.
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It sucks, but everything points to SC being skipped on any potential in the next 240 hours +. Anything that has managed to show up is "just at the end of the run"
 
6z gfs this morning is interesting for next Thursday.
 
fv3p_ref_frzn_us_36.png
FV3 has it to, second run in a row.
 
H5 is weird during this time frame lol, looks almost like a weird positioned 50/50 and the pacific is a mess, but high pressure can do the trick, I’d watch for that WAR to trend stronger ?
CEE49432-1DC0-43D3-96AB-2284A24594DA.png
 
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