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Pattern Fabulous February

Kylo said:
Just got to get through Wed and Thursday this week and then we bake. Going to be great...hello spring.

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Jessy89 said:
I will never pay anyone’s winter forecast attention again. All those winter forecasts will turn out to be wrong!


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Before you two start going all wambulance, it only lasts 3 days

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RollTide18 said:
Before you two start going all wambulance, it only lasts 3 days

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This:

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Usually doesn't just break down that quickly and the GFS is about to way too quickly. That pattern that I just showed usually lasts at least two weeks.

Edit: after a brief cold period where it doesn't even get that cold deep in the south, the ridge just starts building back in. It's a horrible run if you want Fab February.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This:

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Usually doesn't just break down that quickly and the GFS is about to way too quickly. That pattern that I just showed usually lasts at least two weeks.
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And by that point we are looking at end of February. With only a week in which we could see a good snow. Very unlikely a very small needle to thread there. And in March you about need it to snow at night to stick well around here due to sun angle


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That gfs setup is a massive ice storm look probably from texas to the ohio valley into the mid Atlantic.

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Jessy89 said:
And by that point we are looking at end of February. With only a week in which we could see a good snow. Very unlikely a very small needle to thread there. And in March you about need it to snow at night to stick well around here due to sun angle


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Yeah in March and even in late Feb there are so many issues to worry about its not even worth it. Late Feb and March you absolutely need for it to snow at night unless you get lucky enough to get some very heavy precip rates during the day. How often does light snow accumulate during the day in Late Feb/March ?
 
Kylo said:
Those are +15F temp departures.

Like I said...salt in the wound. Pouring rain can really mute those highs. This is even worse.

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Oh no the deluge continues. It may or may not be associated but we are going back through the same MJO phases again and again so its probably likely to verify given our setup.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Yeah in March and even in late Feb there are so many issues to worry about its not even worth it. Late Feb and March you absolutely need for it to snow at night unless you get lucky enough to get some very heavy precip rates during the day. How often does light snow accumulate during the day in Late Feb/March ?
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It doesn’t I’ve seen it snow all day long in March. And it didn’t stick at all


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Jessy89 said:
It doesn’t I’ve seen it snow all day long in March. And it didn’t stick at all


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Absolutely. I saw Thunder Snow for HOURS in March 2009 and it barely accumulated. The rates were just not heavy enough. Even moderate snow wont cut it during the daytime in March. You need heavy snow unless its at night.
 
Meanwhile, the typically clueless CFS 0Z was quite cold with suggestions of Miller A’s and major snow threats in mid Feb! It was cold practically throughout its run. However, the 6Z CFS changed to warmth.
 
I’ve seen this image pop up several times in the LR. I do not believe for a minute that there will be a big trough like that east of HI and then a -PNA/SE ridge combo. We will see, but that looks ridiculous to me.

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Rain Cold said:
I’ve seen this image pop up several times in the LR. I do not believe for a minute that there will be a big trough like that east of HI and then a -PNA/SE ridge combo. We will see, but that looks ridiculous to me. Allghidance has a SE ridge for then.

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Yeah, great point. The trough east of Hawaii very likely won’t be there. The SE ridge is much more reliable. It is supported by practically all of the latest models for around that time and before then.
 
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