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Pattern Fabulous February

Storm5 said:
Oh Brent .....
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what can go wrong :p

I'll be a lot more interested if it looks like that Sunday/Monday
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
In case anyone was wondering why the FV3 was suddenly a no go..here’s hour 216 just before precip moves in. This model likely ---- the bed here on this run. Suddenly much much warmer than it’s previous 8 runs
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Much more amplified slower wave over the lakes next friday which delays caa thus more rain. Still 8-10 days out so i would expexct more variations over the coming days

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Brent said:
what can go wrong :p

I'll be a lot more interested if it looks like that Sunday/Monday
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as good as that looks still looks like half the ensembles have nada I think every setup this winter has never gotten past this pointdownload (1).png
 
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The FV3 doesn’t look bad in the D+10 period, honestly. I mean, ideal? No, but plenty of cold around and it should be active.
 
Fv3 picked this setup up at hour 294, impressive, even if it does not pan out this exact way, it picked something up in the long range and kept up with it
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The only difference between gfs and fv3 for February 10th. Is the placement and strength of the high pressure


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SD said:
That would have to do i guess. Plenty of time to trend NW lol

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Tell your friend he needs counseling if he’s staring at day 14-15 maps of the Euro Control! Also tell him I know a good counselor he can see for this issue.

Sorry for the banter everyone.


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Brent said:
what can go wrong :p

I'll be a lot more interested if it looks like that Sunday/Monday
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just look away now...it will kick you right in the coin purse. Sorry for the banter, but I'm jaded.
 
00z models should be interesting tonight, the first possible wave still can affect us east of the apps as in wintry wx if that ridge can weaken even moreAB1199D5-B13A-4BA7-B5CA-DA70EFF169BF.gif
 
Wave train from North Atlantic to Europe is about to apparently hit roadblock causing backup slowing things down. It may pop a ridge according to some experts. It could slow down pacific and possibly buckle jet. I am just posting what somebody on another site put up from some weather met talking on twitter.
 
snowvol said:
Wave train from North Atlantic to Europe is about to apparently hit roadblock causing backup slowing things down. It may pop a ridge according to some experts. It could slow down pacific and possibly buckle jet. I am just posting what somebody on another site put up from some weather met talking on twitter.
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Yes, and guess where the ridge will be? :(
 
GaWx said:
Yep, right in the heart of the Deep South peak of mid Feb. ;) Seriously though, the control so often has way out there wacky solutions.
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Well, Goofy has had Ga be the rainy center of a sleet sandwich, so all it has to do is fill in, and it has some time to do it :) And really, weather in the south is so much more likely to snatch winter weather away from you, than to grant it, lol. Nothing odd about sleet and zr to the west, and to the east, but rain here :) Way more ways to twist the knife than plausible winter weather setups in the deep south.
 
0Z GEFS looks hideous with the very stubborn SER. JB's sub -5 DJF for the heart of the SE US and -3 to -5 most of the rest of the SE may be in jeopardy, folks. I have to wonder if he's starting to get concerned about his forecast. I mean I guess he can still hope for anomalies of like -30 for 3 weeks.
Anyone staying up for the Euro?
 
GaWx said:
0Z GEFS looks hideous with the very stubborn SER. JB's sub -5 DJF for the heart of the SE US and -3 to -5 most of the rest of the SE may be in jeopardy, folks. I have to wonder if he's starting to get concerned about his forecast. I mean I guess he can still hope for anomalies of like -50 for 3 weeks.
Anyone staying up for the Euro?
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Time is rapidly running out, his cold forecast is going to bust again. Best we can hope for is a 2 week period of bouts of wintry weather.
 
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