“Pure torch” lol it’s a couple warm days and then cold returns ... I mean we live in the south east did u expect pure cold all the time ... it just doesn’t happen .. u should be happy for the break cause it’s not going to last long
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
If you check the EPS and GEFS, both perpetuate the SER the entire week. Never a good sign when they show more than a couple of days in the ensembles.
Chattownsnow
Member
It's also got a pretty pronounced -NAO. That right there pretty much tells me all I need to know about the probability of this look verifying. Honestly though this is not a bad look at all as far as I'm concerned. Troughing near Hawaii, ridging south of Alaska.The aforementioned ridging into Greenland. I would absolutely take my chances with this look. That has a look of ice with cold air undercutting the WAR. We will see where we head but I am unusually optimistic.
EPS is showing the same thing.
Ilovesnow28
Member
As for as I know anything is possible for the month of February to early March at least that's what Joe bastardi thinks in his case for the south we should get back cold with more chances of snow starting around next weekend and onward... But I'm very optimistic especially with how weird this winter has been for us Southerners
Jessy89
Member
It just looks like a overall warm pattern. With the slight potential for a High pressure and low pressure to line up. Just gonna be very hard to thread the needle. So far Fv3 is all alone with it’s fantasy storms. Although other models are close. There needs to be support before it’s even a possibility
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snowlover91
Member
Just like they consistently showed an epic cold pattern for cold that didn't really verify
Ensembles are useful but they aren't gospel; they struggle to pick up on important details due to the way things are smoothed. We are basically seeing a brief reload before a colder shift again around February 8-10 and we may have some winter threats to track for the 8-12th timeframe IMO.
RollTide18
Member
With that SER hanging around, that would mean plenty of chances for Ice if this pattern comes to fruition.
Also, this place went from depressed to excited in a span of 24 hours.
Also, this place went from depressed to excited in a span of 24 hours.
You may want to change your handle to "Captain Obvious" because we are always threading the needle in the south when it comes to winter weather. This pattern does not look overall "warm" to me. A few days of above average and then right back to average to below. That WAR tho.....
Stormlover
Member
May need a thread for severe early next week...from Huntsville NWS:
This will result in an even greater coverage of
showers and thunderstorms from Monday night-Tuesday, and based on a
favorable overlap of increasing instability and strengthening deep-
layer shear we could be dealing with a potential severe thunderstorm
event at some point in the Monday night-Tuesday night timeframe
This will result in an even greater coverage of
showers and thunderstorms from Monday night-Tuesday, and based on a
favorable overlap of increasing instability and strengthening deep-
layer shear we could be dealing with a potential severe thunderstorm
event at some point in the Monday night-Tuesday night timeframe
Keep in mind that strong Greenland blocking can occur (and recently has occurred I believe) with a neutral NAO. I think this is causing confusion as it did for me recently til I learned something new thanks to a pro met I talked to. So, just because GEFS progs have a neutral NAO does not at all mean it isn’t predicting a Greenland block.
From Radiant mets this morning:
“Is February Setting Up To Be Warmer Like Last Year?
With the pattern taking on –PNA characteristics through the early half of February based on current modeling, there is obvious concern that February may look a lot like it did last year--note the similarities of the projected pattern with what was observed in February 2018 at the 500mb level. A repeat of this would almost certainly lower the national GWHDD totals that are within our forecast for the month. There is reason to question the durability of the –PNA pattern this year based on the set up in the tropics. The map below shows OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) anomalies observed in the 2018 case, and this is a classic setup in the tropics to produce a –PNA Northern Hemisphere response. The main factors to note are the +OLR anomalies along the equator from around the International Dateline toward the east through the ENSO regions. Also, the –OLR anomalies (indicative of storminess) around Indonesia also have a role. The hovmoller plot on right is from the ECMWF Weeklies model, and it shows historical data back to late December in the top half and forecast data on the bottom half. In the forecast data there are two main anomaly centers of note. The first being –OLR anomalies near the International Dateline and the other being the +OLR anomalies around Indonesia. This is an opposing setup than was observed in February 2018 and one typically associated with the +PNA. Confidence in the durability of the pattern is low because of this.”
“Is February Setting Up To Be Warmer Like Last Year?
With the pattern taking on –PNA characteristics through the early half of February based on current modeling, there is obvious concern that February may look a lot like it did last year--note the similarities of the projected pattern with what was observed in February 2018 at the 500mb level. A repeat of this would almost certainly lower the national GWHDD totals that are within our forecast for the month. There is reason to question the durability of the –PNA pattern this year based on the set up in the tropics. The map below shows OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) anomalies observed in the 2018 case, and this is a classic setup in the tropics to produce a –PNA Northern Hemisphere response. The main factors to note are the +OLR anomalies along the equator from around the International Dateline toward the east through the ENSO regions. Also, the –OLR anomalies (indicative of storminess) around Indonesia also have a role. The hovmoller plot on right is from the ECMWF Weeklies model, and it shows historical data back to late December in the top half and forecast data on the bottom half. In the forecast data there are two main anomaly centers of note. The first being –OLR anomalies near the International Dateline and the other being the +OLR anomalies around Indonesia. This is an opposing setup than was observed in February 2018 and one typically associated with the +PNA. Confidence in the durability of the pattern is low because of this.”
accu35
Member
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Oh yeah, can't forget about Larry, he's been in this up coming month as well.
Although there are no guarantees and every situation is different, I like where the MJO is going, especially if it follows near today’s EPS path, which is similar to recent days’ EPS progs. Note how much the GEFS changed today, much closer to what the EPS has been showing!
RC, Actually, I thought the opposite. I like this big change in today’s GEFS vs recent days’ GEFS. I’m saying this because I love the first week or so’s big drop in the amp and feel the 2nd week is a bunch of doodoo (not believing it).
I thought I saw one yesterday where it made it out of phase 6 pretty quickly and didn't circle back as big. It may have been the Euro or Op or something that I saw instead of this one.
It sure is hanging out in Phase 7 for a long time! Only one other phase is "better" but I like how we hang out in 7!
You're right. But I’m saying I like today's GEFS because I love the first week or so’s big drop in the amp vs recent day's progs (now going toward the COD) and I also feel the 2nd week's backwarsds move is just a bunch of doodoo (not believing it).