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Pattern Fabulous February

Rain Cold said:
If the high is that strong or stronger and near the lakes and either stationary or drifting east, the low will continue to shift farther south as we move in. Then it will reform farther south on the other side of the wedge. It will not cut very much and it will definitely not reform in central NC in the middle of the wedge.

HOWEVER, the high just sits up there and doesn’t move. That is extremely unlikely. The mechanism for providing confluence is a lobe of the PV that moves through the 50/50 position and lifts slowly out. I would expect that in real life, the confluence zone will lift out as the PV lobe moves northeast, due to the lack of blocking, which will cause the high to weaken and lift northeast.
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Thank you ... for discussing weather ... ;)
 
Rain Cold said:
If the high is that strong or stronger and near the lakes and either stationary or drifting east, the low will continue to shift farther south as we move in. Then it will reform farther south on the other side of the wedge. It will not cut very much and it will definitely not reform in central NC in the middle of the wedge.

HOWEVER, the model shows that the high just sits up there and doesn’t move. That is extremely unlikely. The mechanism for providing confluence is a lobe of the PV that moves through the 50/50 position and lifts slowly out. I would expect that in real life, the confluence zone will lift out as the PV lobe moves northeast, due to the lack of blocking, which will cause the high to weaken and lift northeast.
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Without a traditional or pseudo blocking mechanism, areas east of the mountains at a decent latitude might as well live in Florida (no offense Phil). Our snow climo seems flat out turrable without it. Timing a high with a low gets so old
 
Shawn said:
It has extensively moved and weakened the HP/Signature. This area of SC (CAE) no longer is ground zero with 1 + inches of ZR. We now have 0 on the 18z. That is a huge change vs the 12z FV3.
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Cad Wedge NC said:
Just looked at some soundings..... very deep warm nose (+2C to +3C) with low 20's at the surface for hours with heavy precip. Color me skeptical....View attachment 15201
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those historic ice storms have to happen at some point in time to make it unprecedented .... they happen.. so what’s to say it won’t happen here?? I guess every other more than the Fv3 but I’m excited for the 00z updates will be a big teller
 
H5 is worlds apart on the FV vs the GFS, fv3 develops a decent western ridge allowing this ULL to dig south and “bowling ball”, also note the ridging to its north keeping things separated, also has only a weak WAR now the gfs has a lakes cutter due to a strong WAR, lack of a western ridge and lack of ridging to its north which would easily allow the storm to cut, geez who's gonna cave BD2EB9C5-A3C1-4867-8AC2-452D3C7E6493.gif456E9F76-CEAD-4B41-B115-27E05B386401.gif
 
It’s certainly looking like we might be warmer than last February. Amazing stuff.


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I have a question. If the euro is correct with the depiction of the mjo, will the models adjust accordingly moving forward? Gfs and euro are worlds apart on the progression of the mjo.
 
DT I think summed it up pretty well this evening...........

ABOUT FEB 12 **POSSIBLE** THREAT FOR SNOW ICE VA MD WAV DEL PA NJ

WXRISK.COM·WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2019
The mild interval is going to come to an end on Friday night / Saturday morning as a strong cold front moves across the Appalachian Mts and n sweeps through the East Coast during the predawn hours on Saturday. Indeed by Saturday 7:00 AM most temperatures over central and Eastern Virginia will be in the middle 20s low 20s over most of central and Eastern Maryland... upper 20s over the northern third of North Carolina and in the 18-22 degree range of over southwest Virginia ...the Shenandoah Valley western Maryland ...and West Virginia.
This weekend will end up being seasonally cold both Saturday Sunday and even into Monday before the next event arrives.
On Monday a reinforcing cold front coming of the Midwest will push through the region with and stall over Arkansas Tennessee and North Carolina. The front will probably have some showers with it as it pushes through the Middle Atlantic region. Behind the front a new arctic HIGH will move across the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada and northern New England for the first half of next week. The movement of this cold HIGH pressure area will drive a colder temperatures into the Middle Atlantic region.
To the south a wave of LOW pressure will develop on the front Monday night into Tuesday morning..
The operational regular GFS model as well as the high resolution improved FV3 model develops this wave of LOW pressure and produces significant overrunning precipitation across Virginia Maryland Delaware West Virginia the and then up into Pennsylvania and New Jersey on Tuesday, February 12-13.
According to these models because of the area of HIGH pressure still located over Montreal Canada and northern New England ...the LOW level temperatures will be cold enough to support sleet and snow at the start of the precipitation from the Virginia / North Carolina border northward into PA. This results in several inches of snow across a good portion of Virginia -except for Hampton roads - as well as portions of Maryland and West Virginia.
The problem with this scenario is twofold.
First the European model and the European ensembles do NOT support this an area. They have less cold air coming southward on Monday, February 11 so the temperatures are only cold enough to support sleet and freezing rain over the northwest third of Virginia and central and Western Maryland. The rest of the Middle Atlantic region sees all rain according to the European model
SECOND problem with this winter weather event scenario the is that the overall upper air pattern is generally not supportive of the winter weather type of situation for the Middle Atlantic region.
Typically For the East Coast winter weather pattern we like to see a ridge over the West Coast and Rockies and a trough over the eastern US However the overall Jet stream pattern across North America currently features a deep broad trough over the West Coast and Rockies. And this corresponds to a ridge over the Southeastern states (which is why it has been so warm over the past few days). This pattern does NOT change next week and as a result it makes it very difficult to get a moderate or significant east coast Low pressure areas that bring about winter storms for the Middle Atlantic region.
Indeed even if the GFS model solutions turns out to be correct the whole event is still turns over rain as a big area of LOW pressure develops over Missouri and moves into Illinois and close to Chicago on February 12 and 13.
At this point is difficult to say which solution is correct but I am against the idea of a significant snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region. I think the European solution of seeing some ice over the northwest third of Virginia .. western and central Maryland and the eastern third of West Virginia is probably the correct scenario.
Experience in the overall patterns across North America is hard to ignore the and right now the pattern does not support a big event next week for the Middle Atlantic region
 
Gfs is looking a bit more similar to the FV at H5, trending towards more separation, still would cut but this run was a improvement C013516B-D922-42EB-8F7D-B313A6AD2245.gif
 
Honestly if anything happens at all, the GFS and new FV3 are likely the most realistic depiction. Not some of the ridiculous runs we were seeing.

Northern NC and north icing, that's it.
 
Basically something in between the FV/gfs seems likely, they kinda both caved to each other lol, probably a ice event for the foothills, northern/northwestern piedmont seems likely at this point, maybe similar to that icing event a few weeks ago
 
Let’s see what Euro and UK show. If they make a shift towards an icy solution that would be very interesting. The details of how much are impossible to nail down this far out. The overall synoptic setup is what we need models to start agreeing on.
 
The sad thing about tonight’s runs is that the GFS has a beautiful wedge but it still had me in the mid 40’s here. It had upstate SC at 40 and Macon Georgia in the lower 70’s at 138. At least it will save me from another day of heat and humidity
 
Glad to see this block finally showing back up
 

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I see a whole lot of blocking here at hour 240 on the eps ... doesn’t look all that bad to me Hahahaha
 

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