Clarification about 0Z GEFS: it looks hideous prior to Feb 10. Afterward it improves.
Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
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My wife loves storms.. lol. She’s always asking are we getting a storm. Lol.
Feb 8-12 storm threat went poof in the FV3 as well. And it’s not one of those looks that just comes back in a couple of runs. The pattern no longer supports it
The funny part about it is. Sometime the local news and weather will be blowing it way out of context. Like hide your wife and kids. And she will ask me about it and I just say. “Meh”. There has been a few times I have said. You need to get you and the kids in the bathroom.
Yup I stated this morning that fv3 would lose it. And that’s exactly what happened. It’s just the same pattern we are following this winter. It’s very predictable. You get a storm 10 plus days for several runs then poof it’s gone. Sorry if banter but I feel like I’m describing the pattern we are in thus winter
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Good Lord folks, not the end of the world,
Storm5 said earlier, expect wild model runs good or bad.
Storm5 said earlier, expect wild model runs good or bad.
Expect continued jumps in the models as the pattern gets quite complex...
Not this ---- again ??
Same cold chasing moisture setup as the last one, that won’t work
Wake me up when we actually get a legitimate threat inside day 6, these day 9-12 modeled fantasies are obviously far more apt to largely continue to fall flat on their face as we've seen time & time again lately. All the models including the GFS, FV3, ECMWF, CMC, etc have decoupling biases over areas w/ snow cover which causes some of their long range forecasts to end up too cold & the surface highs to our north are usually too intense as a result, which in effect pushes the storm track SEward, likely too far SE vs reality all else considered equal which is part of the reason why these LR storms "trend NW" as we get closer to verification.
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This looks good to me. Hopefully it will verify.
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Checking the ops from overnight, The American suite (GFS & FV3) have backed off the Feb 9-10 flip, postponing it , if that until day 13-15. The Canadian(GDPS) and CFS are still on board for ending the torch next weekend ( 2/9-2/10). Fact the CFS has 2 LR fantasy hits NC Pre-Feb 15. Euro looks like it has a nice HP 1040 ish for next weekend sitting up over NE by Sunday that should at least keep the surface cold east of the apps.
The EPS agrees with its op and the GEFs looks good especially NC Starting 2/13 onward. Bottom line Is the Flip looks like 2/10-2/12 instead of 2/8-2/10. I'm sure in By late this weekend it will be getting kicked down the road another 2 or 3 days, we'll see. I've learned the hard way this season to not trust anything or anyone advertising a pattern change until inside 5 days. Until we cross this thresh hold personally I'm in the winter is over camp. If the models can ever get us back inside 120 hrs then and only then will I change my tune.
The EPS agrees with its op and the GEFs looks good especially NC Starting 2/13 onward. Bottom line Is the Flip looks like 2/10-2/12 instead of 2/8-2/10. I'm sure in By late this weekend it will be getting kicked down the road another 2 or 3 days, we'll see. I've learned the hard way this season to not trust anything or anyone advertising a pattern change until inside 5 days. Until we cross this thresh hold personally I'm in the winter is over camp. If the models can ever get us back inside 120 hrs then and only then will I change my tune.
This looks good to me. Hopefully it will verify.
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Here’s to hoping!
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I would say it looks like the pattern was overhyped again, but sometimes it seems like we have no idea anymore what pattern and indices really give us a better than normal shot at winter storms here. It feels like what applied in the past doesn't apply anymore.
Not to take anything away from Web's awesome explanation, layman's translation the models suck..
