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Pattern Fabulous February

IF Feb through the 18th is as warm as the GEFS suggests, 2018-9 will have a very high chance to be a top 3 warmest and legit shot at being THE warmest El Nino DJF at KATL of some 47 or so of them. The current warmest is 2015-6. Wouldn't that be amazing after such cold predictions by the Pioneer/JB and other models like several Euro monthlies last fall?

Edit: IF this happens, it would likely become THE worst SE DJF temperature forecasting debacle by the model consensus in history. I can't recall a winter that had so many solidly to very cold SE forecasts that ended up being very warm. We may be looking at a +5 DJF at KATL vs JB's latest forecast of about -4.5 there (earlier one had -5). So, it could end up being a +10 miss!!! Predicting a near top 10 cold and instead getting a near top 10 warm? Insane.
 
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Geez bro this makes me want to pull my fro out, imagine if we had a +PNA, weaker SER, look at that 50/50, and strong epo ridge in AK, what a waste, things can never go right, if -PNA/strong SER continues, we’re not getting much winter wx unless you get lucky with a HP to your north that has some staying power, but that would really be threading the needle
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I said I wouldn't stay up for the EPS, but I was wrong. It continues to be day and night vs both the near record warm GEFS and the very warm GEPS with near normal temps in the SE 2/13+. It has cold not too many 100s of miles NW of us and very cold in the Midwest and Plains thanks to many days of cross polar flow into the NW US. That pattern would not only need to verify but also would need to shift to get the SE into the cold. This is so La Ninalike!
 
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GaWx said:
I said I wouldn't stay up for the EPS, but I was wrong. It continues to be day and night vs both the near record warm GEFS and the very warm GEPS with near normal temps in the SE 2/13+. It has cold not too many 100s of miles NW of us and very cold in the Midwest and Plains thanks to many days of cross polar flow into the NW US. That pattern would not only need to verify but also would need to shift to get the SE into the cold.
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Eps also begins to weaken the SER down by hour 240 and troughiness looks to be on the move, also has a taller EPO ridge, I can’t see past hour 240 on there
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Eps also begins to weaken the SER down by hour 240 and troughiness looks to be on the move, also has a taller EPO ridge, I can’t see past hour 240 on there
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The 360 hour EPS still has WSW flow from N Mexico into the SE and what I'd call a weak SER still hanging on not too dissimilar to the 240 hour map you posted. So, it never goes away. So, there'd still need to be a shift to get the cold into the SE. It's just that it wouldn't be very warm like the GEFS and warm like the GEPS have. It is near normal.
 
GaWx said:
IF Feb through the 18th is as warm as the GEFS suggests, 2018-9 will have a very high chance to be a top 3 warmest and legit shot at being THE warmest El Nino DJF at KATL of some 47 or so of them. The current warmest is 2015-6. Wouldn't that be amazing after such cold predictions by the Pioneer/JB and other models like several Euro monthlies last fall?

Edit: IF this happens, it would likely become THE worst SE DJF temperature forecasting debacle by the model consensus in history. I can't recall a winter that had so many solidly to very cold SE forecasts that ended up being very warm. We may be looking at a +5 DJF at KATL vs JB's latest forecast of about -4.5 there (earlier one had -5). So, it could end up being a +10 miss!!! Predicting a near top 10 cold and instead getting a near top 10 warm? Insane.
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this winter is quickly headed for a giant F to me... it wouldnt be so bad if it wasn't hyped to death but I mean come on now... all I heard for months was how great it was gonna be, every snowy analog we've ever had was dug up and analyzed and we have had 5 minutes of flakes and a minimum LOW in the mid 20s... it's embarassing
 
Brent said:
this winter is quickly headed for a giant F to me... it wouldnt be so bad if it wasn't hyped to death but I mean come on now... all I heard for months was how great it was gonna be, every snowy analog we've ever had was dug up and analyzed and we have had 5 minutes of flakes and a minimum LOW in the mid 20s... it's embarassing
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if the GEFS/GEPS is correct watch for where the dryline will set up in the future, forget winter wx
 
I can't believe the cold snap in mid-November may have been the most impressive(I mean it almost snowed then, one of the earliest ever)... before it was even winter lol the averages were way higher then

and the irony is when it happened everyone said "just imagine that in January"

such a waste
 
EPS took a step towards the GEFS with the trough over the east coast of Russia lifting up more towards the Bering Sea and NE Siberia, causing the downstream ridge-trough couplet over the NE Pacific and western North America to shift westaward, giving more room for the SE to expand.

This is not what we want to see.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_npac_fh216_trend (3).gif
 
The EPS has nice -EPO, -AO, and Greenland blocking, but unfortunately it also has decent SER blocking, which is trumping them all for the SE preventing the cold from making it there and instead just allow for near normal.

I need to get to bed. Night night!
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS took a step towards the GEFS with the trough over the east coast of Russia lifting up more towards the Bering Sea and NE Siberia, causing the downstream ridge-trough couplet over the NE Pacific and western North America to shift westaward, giving more room for the SE to expand.

This is not what we want to see.

View attachment 14760
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I just saw that and was about to say the same, damn, what a fail this winter has been and will likely be, I keep on saying this but I really appreciate the 6” of snow i got back in December
 
One last thing: the EPS is a great example of why the correlation of a -EPO and SE cold isn't all that strong and not as strong as the correlation of a +PNA and SE cold. The correlation of -EPO to cold is a good bit stronger in the Midwest than it is in the SE. Night night.
 
We went through this in mid Dec to mid January. Big trough from AK towards Siberia. This took us weeks to get out of then and in previous winters when this occurs. It was mildly interesting yesterday with the EPS building a poleward EPO but it backed off that as Webb pointed out.


GEFS Ensembles undefined undefined 360.png

compday.MkQMQaiGtu.gifcompday.LtPaLKCEsy.gif
 
Hot off the press from none other than JB, His conclusion remains the same
He believes SOI crash is coming and the MJO into 8.
Also he still thinks strongest positive develop over Greenland mid Feb into March!
core of widespread severe cold in west and plains but pushing out front with the cold to the east coast except the southeast, ( which should lead to plenty of winter weather events southern place to New England) then the core of this shifting southeast for Feb 15-Mar 14

He's not backing down YET!!! lol Let's hope he's right!!
 
Kylo said:
We went through this in mid Dec to mid January. Big trough from AK towards Siberia. This took us weeks to get out of then and in previous winters when this occurs. It was mildly interesting yesterday with the EPS building a poleward EPO but it backed off that as Webb pointed out.


View attachment 14765

View attachment 14764View attachment 14766
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It doesn’t look like it’s backing off. Day 15 vs latest Day 12 (this is probably a later time period if you’re referring to the under a day 10 period Webb posted about) but in any event this is significant change in 3 days and outside of Day 12 nonetheless. We have time...
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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