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Pattern Fabulous February

DixieBlizzard said:
This winter has a '93 feel to it Tony as far as being a crappy winter until that storm. I doubt we will be that lucky but you never know. Snow missing me to the south at least would be interesting. Snow missing me by 25 miles to my NE in December kind of hurt a bit.
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Yeah, Greg, but it was a close drive. I'd have to go 100 miles before I even got close, lol. 51 now, so the cold continues to drive by, and not stay. I hate thinking Nov/Dec was the best of the bunch. Of course, Goofy wants to give me hours and hours of sleet/zr next week, but I'm not holding my breath :)
 
No change to my late winter outlook. Not going to work south or east of Raleigh to Charlotte line. Also, not buying anymore major snow of a foot but wintery mix possible near i40 north to Greensboro NC area this month. Some late winter snows above 2,000 feet possible with ice the bigger story in climo zones off the mountains. Rainy days ahead for a lot too I should add. Active pattern but the cold will not intertwine for any sig. all snow event for the Carolinas. Watch for mixing may strike in multiple punches. The freak winter storm early winter altered the pattern for most on the board and put the nail in the coffin. More on this new research later.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
No change to my late winter outlook. Not going to work south or east of Raleigh to Charlotte line. Also, not buying anymore major snow of a foot but wintery mix possible near i40 north to Greensboro NC area this month. Some late winter snows above 2,000 feet possible with ice the bigger story in climo zones off the mountains. Rainy days ahead for a lot too I should add. Active pattern but the cold will not intertwine for any sig. all snow event for the Carolinas. Watch for mixing may strike in multiple punches. The freak winter storm early winter altered the pattern for most on the board and put the nail in the coffin. More on this new research later.
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How does that December storm have anything to do with now?


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Needa watch southern central nc/areas near FAY tommorow and sc, wedge front is aiding helecity, around 750-1000 jkg of cape
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Hrrr is interesting ahead of the main line
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BirdManDoomW said:
No change to my late winter outlook. Not going to work south or east of Raleigh to Charlotte line. Also, not buying anymore major snow of a foot but wintery mix possible near i40 north to Greensboro NC area this month. Some late winter snows above 2,000 feet possible with ice the bigger story in climo zones off the mountains. Rainy days ahead for a lot too I should add. Active pattern but the cold will not intertwine for any sig. all snow event for the Carolinas. Watch for mixing may strike in multiple punches. The freak winter storm early winter altered the pattern for most on the board and put the nail in the coffin. More on this new research later.
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I’m intrigued. Would love to hear more. 100% agree with your forecast for the remainder of the winter season. Late November/ early December snow doesn’t usually bode well down the road for whatever reason. I never want to see December snow again
 
I am nicknaming our pattern change “The Late Hawaii Pattern Change”. I am not releasing my thesis on a unfinished pdf about the early winter storm. I think ColdRain can vouch for my character and wisdom. Things are turning around but it’s unique. We are going from rain to multiple shots of mixing. Completely different when we came into this winter with that big dog from rain to heavy snow pattern. That pattern is not returning anytime soon.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m intrigued. Would love to hear more. 100% agree with your forecast for the remainder of the winter season. Late November/ early December snow doesn’t usually bode well down the road for whatever reason. I never want to see December snow again
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That’s a falsehood! I got snow on November 11th 1995, from January on, scored 3/4 good events and some single digit lows and LES of Hartwell
 
Tarheel1 said:
December storm broke the sky! It hasn’t healed all winter!
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Makes as munch as anything else I’ve heard all winter. SSW/MaDookie Niño/Solar Minimum/Corona Hole combo couldn’t save us. What gives? Atmospheric memory has been a theme this winter: The Year Of The Cutter

“Lol at that LP cutting into a 1045 arctic high. Yeah right”
 
Storm5 said:
Lol the FV3 has three waves that ride the front between Tuesday and Thursday


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Storm5 said:
FV3 . Three different waves on the 18z run , this is not one big system . All waves go from frozen over to rain
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We have seen this movie over and over again with the FV3 the last three weeks, showing a good storm 7 to 10 days out, only for it to go poof. Maybe this time it will get it right like with the December storm. Come on, FV3! You're our only hope!
 
Anybody post this yet?? GFSv3 clown! 598AA30D-B088-48C3-B92F-9E42A46E606F.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m intrigued. Would love to hear more. 100% agree with your forecast for the remainder of the winter season. Late November/ early December snow doesn’t usually bode well down the road for whatever reason. I never want to see December snow again
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What does it matter whether it snows in December or February ? Is February snow better than December snow?
 
Nam 3km looks a bit more favorable for severe wx than last run, environment ahead of squall line, limiting factors is lapses but there could be a few stronger downbursts embedded in the squall with that much dry air aloft, also a isolated spinup with high helicity
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I meant to post this the other day but I saw a flock of geese flying north last Wednesday. The nail was already in the coffin but that put the last quarter turn in the lug wrench for me
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Well, areas farther south do get more snow than us. So maybe it’s not as bad as we think?
 
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