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Pattern Fabulous February

Rain Cold said:
Here's a good post from Isotherm in the MA forum, responding to psuhoffman (first post below). I bolded the part that I thought was the most important:

"Thanks... What do you think is the main cause of the SE ridge and inability to get a PNA ridge on guidance despite -soi and MJO phase 8? Error or time to admit its just not happening this year, even if we finally get the pacific forcing right?"

"The atmosphere is behaving much more akin to neutral ENSO rather than El Nino this winter, so I would discard the z500 composites for MJO/Ninos evincing the favorability in the p7-8 transition. However, once we're into the core of phase 8 in a couple of days, with strengthening near 8/1 threshold, that effect will manifest with the typical circa 7 day lag. So I expect guidance will finally trend more favorable with the PNA ridging after about February 22nd or so. The MJO wave is more slow-moving and amplified than usual as well, so the effects are enhanced as far as Western trough. Typical MJO progression is faster, but this has been the winter of interference from other tropical waves. Like I said, that post wasn't a total post mortem, and hopefully it will become abstract, especially for you all in the MA who are nearing normal already."
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So there is a lag??
 
wrong
snku_acc.us_ov.png
 
This is showing heavy snow for Asheville and the mountain areas, why does Jason on channel 13 show rain all next week?
 
MichaelJ said:
We do NOT want a strong El Nino next year because the Pac overwhelms the pattern with a zonal flow for the winter, the WHOLE winter
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There's a lot of internal variability amongst strong-super NINOs, collectively they're milder in the contiguous US but it's hard to broad brush any winter based on ENSO phase & intensity alone.

All of the following happened in strong-super NINO winters, most of us would kill for a storm like any of these in our backyards
December 2-3 1896 NC Snowmap.png
December 15-18 1930 NC Snowmap.png

January 25-27 1966 NC Snowmap.png
Feb 9-11 1973 Snowstorm NWS Wilmington.png
March 24-25 1983 NC Snowmap.gif
January 7-8 1988 NC Snowmap.gif
 
MichaelJ said:
This El Nino is not an El Nino at all as far as the SE is concerned. Oh the numbers indicate a weak Modoki El Nino, but the results to not equate with the predominate results from the history books. The actual verification would indicate a much more La Nina look than El Nino look and reminds me of the 1951-52 winter with a weak one which acted very similar to this years weather. It is just unlucky that all the signs pointed to an exciting winter here but instead we get a dud. Me and everyone else (including the professionals in this field) focused on the (anticipated) fastball coming at us when the weather was throwing a curve, swing and a miss
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Even 1951-52 cranked out a big dog right on time when you'd expect one in a NINO winter.
CLT-GSO I-85 special w/ @Myfrotho704_ hitting the jackpot at 7".

February 26-27 1952 NC Snowmap.png
 
Poimen said:
So there is a lag??
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I guess it depends on who you ask. I’ve heard yes and no. Like with so many other things that get dissected into oblivion here and other places, there seem to be nuances to every situation and variable and index and pattern and driver that renders a yes or no answer useless. I haven’t researched it, so I’ll have to rely on the answer by others that say yes their is a lag. Or no there isn’t. Clear as mud.

At the end of the day, it seems logical to me that a lag of some type exists. Otherwise the pattern would be instantaneously altered when the wave moved between phases.
 
GaWx said:
The Donald can still do something about this by just not signing the deal that would prevent the govt from shutting down again. Please Mr. President, do what’s best for our country. The FV3 becoming operational would be a disaster.
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He should at least say “You’re Fired” to the model’s architects. You would think our technology had advanced more than it has.


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