Agree, I was joking about It cutting and this winter lol, anyways HP position and things like that have been improving every gfs run
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Agree, I was joking about It cutting and this winter lol, anyways HP position and things like that have been improving every gfs run
FV3 on NOAA maps is like 24 hours of ZR for a lot of the Carolinas. Hard pass
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
FV3 not only holding serve, but actually coming in even more impressive.
Agree, got some chills from that, just a reminder we’re overdue
snowlover91
Member
Yeah it is over 1” of frozen qpf for NC and would effect parts of SC and GA too. The FV3 has been showing a winter storm for days now in this timeframe. We are only 6 days out and it’s pretty good at this stage.
Insane wedge sig on the FV3. This is as the storm is coming to a close. Wedge still pronounced. It’s either really right or really wrong
snowlover91
Member
Verbatim the FV3 would be a significant ice storm for most of NC with widespread power outages.
Wtf ?!??!? Is there a 1060+ high in the NE ?!? No joke tho I really would want this NOT to happen, way to many trees around my house
Haven’t seen MSLP yet but man that thing dug in and didn’t budge even for a frame
Jon
Member
1037mb over Maine. I feel like it’s overdoing the wedge a bit, lol.
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Don’t see how the FV3 can be right if our LP goes boom. It’s tracking north of us so a big boom would kill our wedge/dry cold air feed. Might still work for favored areas in NC with an amp’d low pressure tracking to the north. Contingent on high pressure strength/placement
I can swear I remember a storm so similar to this one where the wedge although models thought it would erode away it stayed intact for the entire events and almost looked exactly like this as it came to a close ... we also got snow showers the next day from upper level features and entrenched cold air in the atmosphere ... I’m putting my chips in the Fv3 camp ... it’s ride or die
The key here with these types of wedges is that the high pressure is first settling in at the start of the event.. usually the ones that don’t work out are the ones where high pressure is retreating.. willing to bet we have a great north east wind in those CAD areas replenishing that cold air.. which is why it doesn’t budge per day
But Cranky! lol
[B]crankyweatherguy[/B] @[B]crankywxguy[/B]
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The masses have spoken. Ya got a lot of work to do, Fv3 developers, before you make it operational in place of its predecessor, which is far more stable & trustworthy. Not a good look at all. Pas 72hrs it's a hunk of junk. Past 96hrs I wouldn't use it to prop up a hunk of junk.
[B]crankyweatherguy[/B] @[B]crankywxguy[/B]
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The masses have spoken. Ya got a lot of work to do, Fv3 developers, before you make it operational in place of its predecessor, which is far more stable & trustworthy. Not a good look at all. Pas 72hrs it's a hunk of junk. Past 96hrs I wouldn't use it to prop up a hunk of junk.
B
Brick Tamland
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But Cranky, the FV3 has been stable. Maybe just stable(y) wrong? GFS is literally all over the placeBut Cranky! lol
[B]crankyweatherguy[/B] @[B]crankywxguy[/B]
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The masses have spoken. Ya got a lot of work to do, Fv3 developers, before you make it operational in place of its predecessor, which is far more stable & trustworthy. Not a good look at all. Pas 72hrs it's a hunk of junk. Past 96hrs I wouldn't use it to prop up a hunk of junk.
I agree, But I am prepared for the run that says what winter storm are ya talking about?
Surface maps on TT look ugly. Certainly not a classical CAD situation in that regard. Hours of heavy rain transitioning to ZR. Possible but wouldn’t hang my hat on it. Temps in mid/low 30’s with DP’s in the low teens when precip rolls in..that’s how we normally do “big” ice storms around here (speaking of my neck of the woods)
Agree, strange setup lol