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Pattern Fabulous February

pcbjr said:
Larry,
You and I are better than the "Weaklies" (pun) ... we've been pretty much on that train for a couple weeks (pun) ...
Phil
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Yes,, indeed, we have been of late! Cold bias says it all. The GEFS/EPS biased strongly cold in the E US practically all winter, with the strongest in the SE. If a model has warmth, believe it. If it says cold, don't. I still can't get over the length of time the SER has been dominating and how poorly the models have predicted that.

After seeing this and though still unlikely, it is conceivable that KATL has had its last freeze!
 
GaWx said:
Euro weeklies: the -AO/-NAO is no longer there weeks 3-6! But Eastern ridging is there. Hello spring/bugs/pollen! And keep in mind its cold bias. What a winter!
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What scares me is what if that endless rain train developing persists through most of the spring in the same locations.
 
GaWx said:
Yes,, indeed, we have been of late! Cold bias says it all. The GEFS/EPS biased strongly cold in the E US practically all winter, with the strongest in the SE. If a model has warmth, believe it. If it says cold, don't. I still can't get over the length of time the SER has been dominating and how poorly the models have predicted that.

After seeing this and though still unlikely, it is conceivable that KATL has had its last freeze!
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I can’t remember a time when the cold was underdone on models aside from CAD.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Currently, no model shows a freeze is likely in ATL the rest of Feb. and the Bleaklies are mainly warm in March. If ATL doesn’t get another freeze, it’s last 32 will have been 1/31! Nothing like that on record has ever happened! Mid Feb is the earliest last freeze I think.
 
GaWx said:
Currently, no model shows a freeze is likely in ATL the rest of Feb. and the Bleaklies are mainly warm in March. If ATL doesn’t get another freeze, it’s last 32 will have been 1/31! Nothing like that on record has ever happened! Mid Feb is the earliest last freeze I think.
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Something weird is afoot ... don't open the barn door, just yet ... one-and-done is still on the table ...
 
HERE ARE THE GFS 18Z RUN WITH SOME NUMBERS... I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED SOME AREAS AND LOOK AT THE DIF IN THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN

Capture1.PNGCapture2.PNG
 
So whatever enso state we are in or heading into for summer, is it likely to stay wet or Atleast normal precip through the summer?? Or us it going to just shut off in May and never rain till October?
 
I wanna be first on record to say March will be snowier/icier than February for North Carolina. ESP north of 40 and west of 77.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given their track record in the week 3-6 period, this means winter is coming back :)
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The optimist in me is hoping for that but the realist in me knows they, like all models, have been biased cold and to not hold my breath because their main big misses have been when they’ve been too cold as opposed to too warm.

I can’t believe much of the SE is headed for a +5+ for DJF in a weak Modoki El Niño, which is at or near the warmest Niño back to the 1870s! That means JB is going to miss it by an unbelievable 10 in parts of the SE!!! (Easily worst bust ever for him in SE I bet).
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The wedge front of doom... still a cold drizzle after View attachment 15748
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It is going to be another miserable cold damp Saturday. I was hoping for a surprise with this system but it does not look like it will work out. Still curious about surface temps for Tues - Thurs. If wedge gets stronger, it could be too much ice.
 
We haven’t seen where the Fv3 has it loses it then regains it again .. so it’s intreguing.. especially since cmc trending colder and icon trending colder... skeptical till I see the king .. and some enšëmbłęš
 
What could have been without that stubborn SER..
1DEADC1E-9BD7-472A-820B-241E59E891F4.png

This is the MSLP look we search for and would always take our chances with
 
Record wettest Feb KATL 12.77” 1961. Only two others, both in the late 1800s, were over 10”.
 
0Z Euro: SER domination through the end. Solidly warmer than normal all days except below normal daytimes Carolinas CAD region when wedging.
 
An amazingly strong -NAO now showing up on the latter half of the run ... should begin to see some fun runs coming in the future
 
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