Cad Wedge NC
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
wtffffff, so you’re saying there’s a chance .....
Six Mile Wx
Member
What has happened to TT? It used to be the best site now it fails to load and the data is late or doesn’t arrive at all!
Geez no wonder the gefs increased snow mean a little, high/CAD is trending stronger (18z is not loaded yet)
1038 for the 18z gefs !
Jon
Member
Yes we are. The euro is by far a better model.
I’m so tired of hearing the FV3 nailed the December storm. That’s almost as bad as “the euro nailed Sandy”
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Six Mile Wx
Member
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I am just showing the 18z gefs snow depth map for Wednesday morning. I still think it's going to be close for some, but the majority will get a cold rain possibly mixed with a little frozen at the onset. Now if the cad continues to strengthen, then obviously more folks will see something on the front end. Bottom line is, whatever frozen/freezing precip that falls, will be quickly washed away by the warm air advection rains that will follow. At least that's the way I see it for now.
Six Mile Wx
Member
Jessy89
Member
Upstate sc is not going to see that dusting of snow
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Jon
Member
Frozen precipitation at the beginning mixing with rain then turning to all rain = no accumulations, yet the model shows accumulations because it uses additive snowfall and doesn’t account for compaction melting etc. It adds the inches on top of each other... snowfall maps are extra silly to use in events when rain is the main precipitation type, or when rain quickly follows “snow” on the model, especially when the “snow” is questionable at best and most likely a mix or cold rain.
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I know I was joking, would be nice to see some frozen precip at the onset, SER ruined this storm tho
I’m still hopeful for a pattern change in early March as the ensemble guidance suggests MAY finally be strong enough to push out/weaken the SER. However, my level of hope is at least for today not as high as it was yesterday because the models have since I last posted yesterday warmed much of late Feb even further in the SE due to slightly stronger SER. Then the models once again try to change the pattern to colder. Is the early March colder suggestion just a mirage that never gets here in bulk?Quite possibly. You’d have to be naive with regard to this winter’s wx to not give that nontrivial consideration. But a lot of times the stubborn/repeating DJF patterns finally change in early March (due to shortening H5 wavelengths?). So, we’ll see. In the meantime, enjoy in much of the SE a Feb that may challenge the last two warmthwise and will very likely end up one of the warmest on record.
By the way, those complaining about El Niño and saying they’d prefer La Niña because of the cold/wintry Dec-Jan 2010-11 and the big storms of last winter need to realize that this winter’s terrible pattern of the SE being the warmest in the country is typical of La Niña. So, in essence, you’d be preferring ENSO that tends to support the current crappy pattern that you hate.
By the way, those complaining about El Niño and saying they’d prefer La Niña because of the cold/wintry Dec-Jan 2010-11 and the big storms of last winter need to realize that this winter’s terrible pattern of the SE being the warmest in the country is typical of La Niña. So, in essence, you’d be preferring ENSO that tends to support the current crappy pattern that you hate.
Lol I love the FV3
Jon
Member
I think folks are just saying Ninos are over hyped if this is what happens when we get one, not that they really prefer a Niña. The complaining is justified to me when a hyped Niño winter ended up being one of the snowless AND sleetless/iceless winters in recent history for the greater SE. The NC snow saved this winter from joining the poor winters of recent history in the SE.
Truth be told, ninos might set us up for the possibility of a better chance at snow, but it’s obvious there’s more to it than enso...this winter being a prime example.
So when asked, I’ll always pick Niño. But will I be upset if it’s a Nina? Or a neutral? Not really. Although my climate is different than the SE...as RDU averages more snow in Nina years anyway.
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So, for the 2nd run in a row, the cold biased FV3 has absolutely stupid idiotic cold (obliterating alltime early March records) in the Midwest while this time also getting into the SE. I am hoping for the pattern change in early March, but not because of the FV3 with its overdone solutions.
By the way, what’s with the delay in getting the FV3 at TT? 12Z was delayed. Shouldn’t 18Z already be out?
I hope and pray the FV3 fails tests and doesn’t go operational. Maybe SouthernWx should petition NOAA??
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
CAD keeps coming in stronger on the models, and we still have a few days to go. I know in the past the CAD has been stronger than what the models show, too. Actually happened earlier this week when the high was off almost 10 degrees here.
With the 18z gefs, obvious its slowly trending stronger with the CAD but the SER is trending a tiny bit stronger aswell, ---- the SER 
Jon
Member
For some reason TT seems to download and process FV3 data at a snails pace. Not sure the reason. FV3 data on weathermodels is out and syncs well with the noaa site.
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The 18Z FV3 is now out on TT. Like clockwork and totally expected, the worst of the stupid MW cold has been reduced quite a bit and the SE never gets much in on it like the 12Z had. This model is such a disaster. I think a national emergency should be declared since it is on the verge of going operational.
Edit: this cold bias reminds me of the intense GFS cold bias of the 2001-2 winter.
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Jon
Member
18z Euro looks interesting for the border counties. 850mb temps well above 0c though.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
NAM much colder in CAD areas of NC. Icy
A huge wildcard with the storms is the extent and speed of the initial precip shield ... lots of the times models are drier and moisten up quicker and precip spreads further out faster with these types of storms.. I think if we can get precip in early enough we have a better chance at a more wintry scenario ... honestly if I get sleet with this south east ridge after all this negativity recently I’ll TAKE IT
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
ICON coming in only about 8 degrees colder than 18Z run
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GFS throwing me a big bone.
NCSNOW
Member
Yep models keep trending more n more wintry every run.
Ladies and gentlemen, we got em
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Trying not to get reeled in too far. I want to see this get in the 3k NAM and RGEM range before I get too excited. I do feel that whoever west of 77 gets under a real heavy band will switch to heavy heavy snow for a while.
Hot off the press from Cosgrove: he's sort of giving up on winter for the SE:
"This has somewhat of a painful winter in the sense that, while intrusions of bitter cold and periods of heavy snow and ice have been seen in the U.S., the southern and eastern tiers have largely been left out of the "fun". There are always excuses present, and the one that stands out as viable is that recurrent, strong subtropical jet stream that did not behave in "typical" El Nino fashion. Usually a cold signal for forecasters, the warm and moist fetch from the equatorial Pacific Ocean has consistently made its run from Texas up through, and west of, the Appalachian Mountains. That alignment is a formula for "snow disappointment" along the Interstate 20 and 95 corridors. Yes, I mean Dallas TX, Atlanta GA, and Philadelphia PA.
With the clock running down, and the sun getting ever higher in the sky, our chances to see a truly synoptic scale Arctic intrusion and major winter storm of the "Miller A" type are decreasing sharply. Keep in mind that the calendar date for the equinox (March 21) is more useful in cold weather climatology than the start of "meteorological spring", March 1. This is because nature follows different rules than data storage, what with cold air aloft, chilled waters, and a deep snow cover to be gotten rid of. So if for some reason, luck or serendipity grants the Dixie states and Eastern Seaboard, there is still more than a month in which this "miracle of the flakes" could happen.
But I am honestly not optimistic about such a turn of fortune, for two reasons. The increased presence of a subtropical high, often tied to a developing La Nina, cannot be denied. Occasionally suppressed in the numerical model runs, the previous day set of numerical model runs had a possible James Bay vortex and extensive cold pretty much everywhere in the lower 48 states in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day period. The most recent guidance covering the longer term and next month shows the usual back-up, with warmer thermal anomalies reclaiming the Gulf Coast, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard. Yes, it will be quite cold in the interior with another ridge build-up in Alaska, but there is no Greenland or Baffin Island block present to keep atmospheric heights low in the New England and Mid-Atlantic states."
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My opinion is that early March is still way up in the air due to the typical seasonal shortening of H5 wavelengths. It may be over but perhaps not. Note that his timing and JB's on giving up coincided quite closely in time.
"This has somewhat of a painful winter in the sense that, while intrusions of bitter cold and periods of heavy snow and ice have been seen in the U.S., the southern and eastern tiers have largely been left out of the "fun". There are always excuses present, and the one that stands out as viable is that recurrent, strong subtropical jet stream that did not behave in "typical" El Nino fashion. Usually a cold signal for forecasters, the warm and moist fetch from the equatorial Pacific Ocean has consistently made its run from Texas up through, and west of, the Appalachian Mountains. That alignment is a formula for "snow disappointment" along the Interstate 20 and 95 corridors. Yes, I mean Dallas TX, Atlanta GA, and Philadelphia PA.
With the clock running down, and the sun getting ever higher in the sky, our chances to see a truly synoptic scale Arctic intrusion and major winter storm of the "Miller A" type are decreasing sharply. Keep in mind that the calendar date for the equinox (March 21) is more useful in cold weather climatology than the start of "meteorological spring", March 1. This is because nature follows different rules than data storage, what with cold air aloft, chilled waters, and a deep snow cover to be gotten rid of. So if for some reason, luck or serendipity grants the Dixie states and Eastern Seaboard, there is still more than a month in which this "miracle of the flakes" could happen.
But I am honestly not optimistic about such a turn of fortune, for two reasons. The increased presence of a subtropical high, often tied to a developing La Nina, cannot be denied. Occasionally suppressed in the numerical model runs, the previous day set of numerical model runs had a possible James Bay vortex and extensive cold pretty much everywhere in the lower 48 states in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day period. The most recent guidance covering the longer term and next month shows the usual back-up, with warmer thermal anomalies reclaiming the Gulf Coast, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard. Yes, it will be quite cold in the interior with another ridge build-up in Alaska, but there is no Greenland or Baffin Island block present to keep atmospheric heights low in the New England and Mid-Atlantic states."
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My opinion is that early March is still way up in the air due to the typical seasonal shortening of H5 wavelengths. It may be over but perhaps not. Note that his timing and JB's on giving up coincided quite closely in time.
snowlover91
Member
00z GEFS has a wintry look to start.
0Z GEFS: SE never gets to a decidedly cold pattern. Our SER weakens late, but then it mainly goes to a more or less zonal flow in early March. Better than the Feb warmth at least if the warmth actually leaving can even be believed. But not showing that strong +PNA returning like it showed yesterday for early March. I expect the King to be a snoozer, but what will the EPS 11-15 day say? I'm not optimistic but let's see.
Brent
Member
Yay
0Z FV3: much warmer than the past 3 runs in Midwest (what a shocker lol) and SE never gets that cold in early March. Just a light freeze ATL one day in March before warming back up if you can even believe the light freeze it shows.
What a waste. I still think we have a shot later this month and into early March.
I hope you're right, Chris, and I'm certainly not giving up for early March since it is still 12 days away and seeing the very -SOIs of recent days, but the 0Z model trends so far have not been what I wanted to see at all. There are forces out there that we don't understand just won't allow the SE to get cold this met. winter for the most part. Now that N Pac blocking high is screwing us up by teleconnecting to our SER. Maybe the key in finally getting out of this mess is to get into met. spring/shorter H5 wavelengths?? But I'm not holding my breath,
I might stay up to watch the Euro rip my onset trace away. Nothing like a good gut punch before bed
CAD Looks more entrenched vs the past euro
We made it to 72*F yesterday after the rain ended and had a mix of sun and clouds for the remainder of the day.
We could make it to 70*F+ again today if the warm front can overcome the CAD wedge. Models are giving mixed signals, as some push the front as far north as Atlanta while other only push it as far north as LaGrange.
We could make it to 70*F+ again today if the warm front can overcome the CAD wedge. Models are giving mixed signals, as some push the front as far north as Atlanta while other only push it as far north as LaGrange.
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Really? We stayed cloudy and never got above 50 all day yesterday. I guess I didn’t look at a map.