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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

January will be below average this winter! You heard it here first!
 
I dont know why anyone in AL would not be optimistic concerning winter considering the past ten years. Just too bad for yall in NC.
 
Nc always sees some sort of winter weather, most of the time it’s crap ahead of a rainstorm
 
pcbjr said:
Gonna be one miserable winter on this board with that showing up ...
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On the contrary the Pioneer model is actually warmer than last year. You also notice JB hasn’t been hyping this winter as much. It’s the 18th and he hasn’t released his outlook yet. Last year It was the 6th I believe. The last time his forecast looked meh. Was 17-18 which turned out pretty well. With the contrary of the last Pioneer model (see below) We might get something good. 6524CA2B-587F-4F23-8D72-E6871B97FFAD.png
 
DarkKnight said:
Is it time to come out of habitation yet??
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I’d wait until people start getting up in arms about how It’s above average in the 80’s and their highs aren’t in the 70’s yet. Usually starts at the end of the month.;)
 
Don’t fall for the cold bias of seasonal models:

I looked at the prior 8 years of JAMSTEC July SE US winter predictions to see how it did to give me an idea of how to treat the current cold prediction:

Winter..........Prediction...........Actual...........Missed by
18-19...............-2......................+4...................-6
17-18...............-1.....................+2.5...............-3.5
16-17................0......................+5..................-5
15-16................-1.....................+3..................-4
14-15...............-3.....................-1.5..............-1.5
13-14................+1....................-0.5................+1.5
12-13...............-0.5...................+3..................-3.5
11-12................+1.....................+4..................-3

- The average miss of last 8 JAMSTEC July forecasts is a whopping -3!
- 7 of 8 were predicted too cold
- There were no warm forecasts but there were SIX warm winters
- The average miss of the last 4 is a whopping -4.6!
- So, the cold bias is getting worse. This is absolutely sucktastic.
- Don’t fall for the cold bias, folks. It will save you major disappointment.
 
GaWx said:
Don’t fall for the cold bias of seasonal models:

I looked at the prior 8 years of JAMSTEC July SE US winter predictions to see how it did to give me an idea of how to treat the current cold prediction:

Winter..........Prediction...........Actual...........Missed by
18-19...............-2......................+4...................-6
17-18...............-1.....................+2.5...............-3.5
16-17................0......................+5..................-5
15-16................-1.....................+3..................-4
14-15...............-3.....................-1.5..............-1.5
13-14................+1....................-0.5................+1.5
12-13...............-0.5...................+3..................-3.5
11-12................+1.....................+4..................-3

- The average miss of last 8 JAMSTEC July forecasts is a whopping -3!
- 7 of 8 were predicted too cold
- There were no warm forecasts but there were SIX warm winters
- The average miss of the last 4 is a whopping -4.6!
- So, the cold bias is getting worse. This is absolutely sucktastic.
- Don’t fall for the cold bias, folks. It will save you major disappointment.
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It’s 100 degrees outside . I’ll buy all the cold bias maps I can find IMG_2707.JPG


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The International Multimodel Ensemble (IMME) is torchy. (essentially the IMME consists of NMME + Euro seasonal)

In reality there will be some areas in this map that end up below normal but for now until we actually have enough confidence wrt who that will be (if we ever do), a persistence forecast is the "safe" option although I definitely think this is probably too warm in the end.


IMME_tmp2m_us_season4.png


This nearly perpetual +PDO and waning warm AMO w/ extremely persistent -EPOs started in 2012-13 and taking the average of all winters since then is a good place to start. The IMME isn't too far off except over the upper midwest/northern Rockies where the core of the cold anomalies from the -EPO tend to be the strongest. The SE US on the whole is ~1.5F-2F above normal over this period, any seasonal forecast &/or old analogs should really be starting at this warmer base point instead of at 0 based on the 1981-2010 base period because it's beyond obvious at this juncture the background climate is already warmer than the 1981-2010 mean. Apvxl2rzTF.png


In case anyone was curious how last year panned out...

After accounting for spread between winters dampening the anomalies in a composite & even if you took out 2018-19 in the above composite, a persistence forecast based on 2012-13 thru 2017-18 would have virtually given you the end result over North America in 2018-19.
fQIqnYeSQL.png


Just some things to think about...
 
And here is this gem from Weather Bell, which fell for the frigid Pioneer and other crappy cold models (they were pretty much all cold in the SE; the SE cold bias is the worst) hook, line, and sinker:

1C252947-B42D-4DDA-A256-892FB2658803.png
 
GaWx said:
And here is this gem from Weather Bell, which fell for the frigid Pioneer and other crappy cold models (they were pretty much all cold in the SE; the SE cold bias is the worst) hook, line, and sinker:

View attachment 21770
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This has to go down as one of Joe Bastardi's worst winter forecasts in history lol & that's saying a lot.

Literally couldn't have been further from reality if he tried.

You hate to see it.

Screen Shot 2019-08-19 at 11.31.34 AM.png

2018-19 CONUS Winter Temp Anomalies US PSD.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This has to go down as one of Joe Bastardi's worst winter forecasts in history lol & that's saying a lot.

Literally couldn't have been further from reality if he tried.

You hate to see it.

View attachment 21773

View attachment 21774
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I personally thought the anomaly distribution going into the winter wasn't unreasonable but I was clearly hesitant to go w/ anything < 1-2F below in the SE US. That forecast too would have busted but not to the level his did lol
 
It's hard to imagine a BN winter occurring but you would think eventually it's going to happen again, it's been 4 consecutive winters with AN temps in the SE.. Tough to shake persistence.

Though, 3 of my favorite winter events have occurred in the past 2 winters so if we can keep that up.
 
Storm5 said:
Holy s****!!!! I’d give a lot for this to verify


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It’s fixed, so it has to be right!!?
SD said:
Its fake news

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Ventrice said the Cansips is fixed !!! ????
And it’s kicking out awesome cold and snowy forecasts already! Game on!
 
TBH I think this is our best chance of BN temps so far. Solar minimum, +PDO, no cold blob of death up around Greenland, and so on.


Not saying that blockbuster cold is coming but discounting the chance for a BN winter entirely is just a lot of jaded-ness showing.

Also, the past few winters have proven that we do not need wall to wall blockbuster cold for good storms, if anything as I have said in the past, long stretches of cold is pretty much always paired with a bone dry pattern.

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Turns out the CanSip was lying to us. Still has awesome blocking but there's a SE ridge, figures. But hey on the bright side I still would pay for this to verify. We probably won't get this nice blocking over the top when all said in done.ECVcBQ-X4AMCzqN.png
 
SimeonNC said:
TBH I think this is our best chance of BN temps so far. Solar minimum, +PDO, no cold blob of death up around Greenland, and so on.


Not saying that blockbuster cold is coming but discounting the chance for a BN winter entirely is just a lot of jaded-ness showing.

Also, the past few winters have proven that we do not need wall to wall blockbuster cold for good storms, if anything as I have said in the past, long stretches of cold is pretty much always paired with a bone dry pattern.

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Well that isn't necessarily true in this case. The cold blob is actually still there it's just sequestered underneath the strong +near-surface SSTAs. Once the upper ocean mixed layer deepens as winter approaches it will probably reappear yet again. This so-called "re-emergence" mechanism is how we get interannual persistence of winter-time extratropical SSTs from year-to-year and one of the main physical drivers behind the PDO.
 
KyloG said:
It's hard to imagine a BN winter occurring but you would think eventually it's going to happen again, it's been 4 consecutive winters with AN temps in the SE.. Tough to shake persistence.

Though, 3 of my favorite winter events have occurred in the past 2 winters so if we can keep that up.
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It's going to be fun to see how things go at the pole over the next few weeks. We have seen above normal heights for the majority of summer. Im worried that means a slam dunk hyper +AO/NAO winter and one of the warmest on record. If that negative height trend continues into winter it could be a lot of fun

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Webberweather53 said:
Well that isn't necessarily true in this case. The cold blob is actually still there it's just sequestered underneath the strong +near-surface SSTAs. Once the upper ocean mixed layer deepens as winter approaches it will probably reappear yet again. This so-called "re-emergence" mechanism is how we get interannual persistence of winter-time extratropical SSTs from year-to-year and one of the main physical drivers behind the PDO.
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I never knew that, well everything else still stands lol

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Webberweather53 said:
I still don't understand the weenie obsession with making the west warmer than normal in every winter forecast.

Apparently this is making its rounds on facebook. smh

I love how there's no label for the yellow area in west Texas.

View attachment 21785
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I don’t feel good about where “worst of winter” shade was placed. Cutters and rubbers incoming ☹️
 
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