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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

cd2play said:
I predict all of TN and NC will get ice, ice, and more ice. The three letter combo for winter 2020 will be ICE
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NC is more believable than TN because of CAD, but of course ice storms happen without it. If it's for NC and TN, it'll make its way into GA and AL as well. I doubt we see ice after ice. Possible to get 1 or 2 storms though.
 
ForsythSnow said:
NC is more believable than TN because of CAD, but of course ice storms happen without it. If it's for NC and TN, it'll make its way into GA and AL as well. I doubt we see ice after ice. Possible to get 1 or 2 storms though.
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I'm thinking if it ends up cold neutral ENSOwise, there will for the ATL area be a decent shot at one major ZR or IP even with a mild winter. Cold neutral has by far had the highest %/the largest number of major ZRs for any ENSO including vs warm neutral. Some warm winter cold neutral analogs with a major ATL ZR: 1881-2, 1932-3, 1943-4, 1948-9
 
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GaWx said:
I'm thinking if it ends up cold neutral ENSOwise, there will for the ATL area be a decent shot at one major ZR or IP even with a mild winter. Cold neutral has by far had the highest %/the largest number of major ZRs for any ENSO including vs warm neutral. Some warm winter cold neutral analogs with a major ATL ZR: 1881-2, 1932-3, 1943-4, 1948-9
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I agree while ENSO is still up in arms, the cold pool in The Epac probability isn’t going anywhere. In my opinion, I expect the cold pool the move west within the month.

Alternatively If that doesn’t happen we still could end up with a Nino or the “modoki” type. I remember Enthusiasts screaming modoki last year. Which verified to being a warm blob in the pacific. At this point that variable seems more likely now than last year

With a potentially cooler than average SST the northern stream should be dominant. Even though the winter will most likely be warm these systems could go farther south without having to worry to badly about CAD and WAA


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I'm in no way on board with a colder than average winter as a whole. That seems almost impossible in this climate. But the current sst up around Greenland are vastly different this year than they have been in quite sometime.

This trend started back in May and progressed through the summer. The correlation to May sst around Greenland has been noted as a predictor of the NAO the following winter.

You currently have a tripole of warm around Greenland, cold south of there and warm in the north central Atlantic. Some would say that's a pretty good indicator of blocking the following winter. Could we finally break the streak? Probably not a sustained -NAO but maybe we can squeeze in some blocking here and there and have the NAO average slightly negative for winter. But what will we block up? Mild Pacific air? That's anyone's guess.Screenshot_20190804-174616_Chrome.jpg
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I'm in no way on board with a colder than average winter as a whole. That seems almost impossible in this climate. But the current sst up around Greenland are vastly different this year than they have been in quite sometime.

This trend started back in May and progressed through the summer. The correlation to May sst around Greenland has been noted as a predictor of the NAO the following winter.

You currently have a tripole of warm around Greenland, cold south of there and warm in the north central Atlantic. Some would say that's a pretty good indicator of blocking the following winter. Could we finally break the streak? Probably not a sustained -NAO but maybe we can squeeze in some blocking here and there and have the NAO average slightly negative for winter. But what will we block up? Mild Pacific air? That's anyone's guess.View attachment 21435
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There’s little correlation between summer and winter -NAO. If anything, there’s been a slight negative correlation. Therefore, I currently see nothing to get in the way of another mild winter, unfortunately. But that never means no chance for a major winter storm for especially more northern areas from one or more threats. Let’s face it. Some of the more vocal posters here couldn’t care less whether or not the winter is cold, regardless, and some don’t even like it cold. Those folks mainly just want to get a major winter storm and they’re perfectly content.
 
GaWx said:
There’s little correlation between summer and winter -NAO. If anything, there’s been a slight negative correlation. Therefore, I currently see nothing to get in the way of another mild winter, unfortunately. But that never means no chance for a major winter storm for especially more northern areas from one or more threats. Let’s face it. Some of the more vocal posters here couldn’t care less whether or not the winter is cold, regardless, and some don’t even like it cold. Those folks mainly just want to get a major winter storm and they’re perfectly content.
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We always have the JAMSTEC and Pioneer to rely on ... among others ... failing those, the Almanac ... :eek:
 
Funny. I was doing some research this morning on the correlation between a -Nao during the summer and the effects on the winter. I hope to post those results tomorrow.
Edit: I quickly took a look at some years that had a similar North Atlantic Evolution and found 2003. Which I believe 2004 was the year that NC got a foot in CLT. 75CF8E40-8E3D-40D8-A0D5-021B2CE168C0.jpeg


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GaWx said:
There’s little correlation between summer and winter -NAO. If anything, there’s been a slight negative correlation. Therefore, I currently see nothing to get in the way of another mild winter, unfortunately. But that never means no chance for a major winter storm for especially more northern areas from one or more threats. Let’s face it. Some of the more vocal posters here couldn’t care less whether or not the winter is cold, regardless, and some don’t even like it cold. Those folks mainly just want to get a major winter storm and they’re perfectly content.
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I'm one of the ones who only care about snow! Although I do get tired of the +6 temp anomalies we get in winter anymore. I'll never wish for the deep freeze because 99% of the time that's dry. Give me average temps and 2 or 3 decent snow chances and I'm good!
 
It's hard not to be negative for the upcoming winter after measuring 0.00 inches the previous winter... So far expect the same this year unless something major changes
 
Quite foggy here and also warm in North MS so far this month. Isn’t there a saying about August fog and winter snows?
 
NWMSGuy said:
Quite foggy here and also warm in North MS so far this month. Isn’t there a saying about August fog and winter snows?
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I think it may be October fogs, but not sure! I’ve given up on folklore and everything else, with regards to snow in the south
 
JB was teasing the large increase of snow over Greenland.
Question: does anybody have the new Euro seasonal
A42FB605-8333-4EFC-AB57-908E1E4FDBF1.jpeg
 
Ollie Williams said:
JB was teasing the large increase of snow over Greenland.
Question: does anybody have the new Euro seasonal
View attachment 21444
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Poop ice cover! It’s Judah Cohens bread and butter and ain’t worth 2 pooping poops! Go by persimmon seeds, you’ll be better off!
 
Ollie Williams said:
Funny. I was doing some research this morning on the correlation between a -Nao during the summer and the effects on the winter. I hope to post those results tomorrow.
Edit: I quickly took a look at some years that had a similar North Atlantic Evolution and found 2003. Which I believe 2004 was the year that NC got a foot in CLT. View attachment 21441


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I really don't like the look of the Pacific though this year. It's torching! The Pacific pattern is more important imo. The Atlantic side just blocks up what the Pacific gives us. Warm Pacific screams howling Pac jet. Hope I'm wrong but we know how hard below average temps are to come by in the se recently.
 
Interesting research from BamWX on the AO. They found that -AO's in the summer before 2000 correlated to below average temps in December. After 2000 the -AO correlated to +average anomalies. Granted there were several other reasons those 4 winters sucked.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Interesting research from BamWX on the AO. They found that -AO's in the summer before 2000 correlated to below average temps in December. After 2000 the -AO correlated to +average anomalies. Granted there were several other reasons those 4 winters sucked.
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Just goes to confirm that there are other multi-decadal factors in play that have more influence. If there is a correlation, it is easily muted. I don't believe a summer -AO has any influence on the winter season weather drivers.
 
I additionally analyzed the correlation between the NAO in the summer and the effects on the winter. Taking June July August and finding the average of those months I used -.50-.50 as a representative to neutral. Anything farther away from those digits was decided as negative or positive NAO. In total there were 18 Analogs With strong a strong -NAO during the Summer and 11 with a strong +NAO

When I first started analyzing the data I noticed the the years that had -NAO’s tended to have a strong -NAO during the winter. Which exited me since that data was not watered down. I then took a look at the +NAO and It’s winter correlation and found unfortunately found that It had Similar results. Though a bit more watered down. I did take a look at the Neutral years and found a similar Unsurprising result. This leads me to believe that there really isn’t much correlation at all. On the other hand while Inquiring the data I noticed that the last decade or so during the summer has been very negative Including 08 09 10 11 12 14 15 16. Which we all know some were very warm. Figures It can't be flipped the other way around:rolleyes:. I didn’t find another decease with as many negatives as the most recent one. I however found the late 50’s early 60’s did have a string of summertime -NAO’s.
Just for the Fun of It here are the composites.
-NAO During the summer-Composites in the Winter and temperature anomalies by year
1955 Normal/AA
1957 Normal/AA
1958 BA
1959 Normal
1963 BA
1964 BA
1975 AA
1981 BA
1988 BA
1994 Normal
1999 AA
2009 Normal
2010 BA
2011 Normal
2012 AA
2013 Normal/BA
2015 Normal/BA
2016 Normal
-NAO Winter.png
+NAO During the summer-Composites in the Winter and temperature Anomalies by year
1956 Normal
1968 BA
1971 BA
1973 Normal
1977 BA
1980 BA
1984 Normal/BA
1995 Normal/AA
1997 AA
2014 BA
2019 AA
+NAO TEMPS.png
 
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NWMSGuy said:
It’s always fun to read and watch people’s take on the upcoming winters every year and the below blog can be included!

Very lengthy but a great read if you have the time:

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/?m=1
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2de2b0ff1267277fd9b52e5e7a3791d0.jpg



. Eventually a colder and snowier SE will happen. It’s been predicted every winter it feels like.



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NoSnowATL said:
2de2b0ff1267277fd9b52e5e7a3791d0.jpg



. Eventually a colder and snowier SE will happen. It’s been predicted every winter it feels like.
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1. I sense some warranted sarcasm here. It is obvious that most of these forecasts year after year have cold dominating the country, making them wrong most of the time until the broken clock happens to have the right time

2. I don't know Jack about this forecaster, but amazingly they have "warmer" in just one small corner of the country. I'm shocked and stunned.

3. Ironically, even with the vast majority colder than normal, this forecaster still has the SE ridge lmao.

4. I'm still sticking with my forecast of another overall mild DJF in the SE US. The trend (SER domination) is your friend. It isn't wise to go against the trend and try to catch a falling knife.

5. JB has been hinting at another cold winter forecast yawn. He in 2018-9 had just about THE worst winter forecast even he has ever had.

6. I've also been saying that we'll actually have a shot at a cold winter in the SE US in 2020-1 though that is not a forecast this far out of course.
 
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GaWx said:
1. I sense some warranted sarcasm here. It is obvious that most of these forecasts year after year have cold dominating the country, making them wrong most of the time until the broken clock happens to have the right time

2. I don't know Jack about this forecaster, but amazingly they have "warmer" in just one small corner of the country. I'm shocked and stunned.

3. Ironically, even with the vast majority colder than normal, this forecaster still has the SE ridge lmao.

4. I'm still sticking with my forecast of another overall mild DJF in the SE US. The trend (SER domination) is your friend. It isn't wise to go against the trend and try to catch a falling knife.

5. JB has been hinting at another cold winter forecast yawn. He in 2018-9 had just about THE worst winter forecast even he has ever had.

6. I've also been saying that we'll actually have a shot at a cold winter in the SE US in 2020-1 though that is not a forecast this far out of course.
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I'm not sure it's even possible to have a below average season at this point anytime of the year in this climate. Maybe when the 1991-2020 normals come out and include the dumpster fire 2010s we will we have normal anomalies? Or will the 2020s make the 2010s look cold? But this winter, regardless of what the teles look like or how good it may look, we'll do good to have one of the three winter months below average. And even if we do have a month below it'll probably result from a 2 week Arctic blast and the rest of even that month will be warm. Just how it's been lately.
 
GaWx said:
1. I sense some warranted sarcasm here. It is obvious that most of these forecasts year after year have cold dominating the country, making them wrong most of the time until the broken clock happens to have the right time

2. I don't know Jack about this forecaster, but amazingly they have "warmer" in just one small corner of the country. I'm shocked and stunned.

3. Ironically, even with the vast majority colder than normal, this forecaster still has the SE ridge lmao.

4. I'm still sticking with my forecast of another overall mild DJF in the SE US. The trend (SER domination) is your friend. It isn't wise to go against the trend and try to catch a falling knife.

5. JB has been hinting at another cold winter forecast yawn. He in 2018-9 had just about THE worst winter forecast even he has ever had.

6. I've also been saying that we'll actually have a shot at a cold winter in the SE US in 2020-1 though that is not a forecast this far out of course.
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Unfortunately I tend to agree that the SER will give us an overall mild winter, but not without winter giving us a look.
 
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