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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

pcbjr said:
Larry,
Even warm winters can bring tidings of joy ... :cool:
Phil
(Glad to be back in Hogtown as of 4:00 this afternoon, BTW ...)
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Welcome back to my home away from home! Agreed. Even the warmest winter is way colder than the most severely cold summer in history.
 
GaWx said:
Welcome back to my home away from home! Agreed. Even the warmest winter is way colder than the most severely cold summer in history.
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Larry, let me ask you this. I live in Arkansas. Is there no scenario that will allow a colder winter than last winter? Im assuming you expect the -nao to break down and stay + for a long time. I guess its good to be conservative, but i feel that if we get a -qbo, we should be colder than the last few winters.
 
Golf7575 said:
Larry, let me ask you this. I live in Arkansas. Is there no scenario that will allow a colder winter than last winter? Im assuming you expect the -nao to break down and stay + for a long time. I guess its good to be conservative, but i feel that if we get a -qbo, we should be colder than the last few winters.
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Golf,
As warm as last winter was, it wouldn’t be hard to have the upcoming winter be slightly cooler even with the net +NAO I expect.
 
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GaWx said:
Golf,
As warm as last winter was, it wouldn’t be hard to have the upcoming winter be slightly cooler even with the net +NAO I expect.
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I was lucky here with a minor snow event in November, one decent ice storm in December, and a few minor snow events in January last winter. Most will go to the default non-winter, which is fine. We are in the south. I just feel Gawx, but i could be wrong obviously that we should get back into a favorable qbo setup, which should allow the nao to modulate more -nao tendencies, which is the start of the newer set-up for a while. We shall see though.??
 
Golf7575 said:
I was lucky here with a minor snow event in November, one decent ice storm in December, and a few minor snow events in January last winter. Most will go to the default non-winter, which is fine. We are in the south. I just feel Gawx, but i could be wrong obviously that we should get back into a favorable qbo setup, which should allow the nao to modulate more -nao tendencies, which is the start of the newer set-up for a while. We shall see though.??
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Golf, one thing to note Is that +QBO would be the way to go. Positive QBO's correlate to +PNA's. If we end up with a Nina, a -PNA would be favored. the ideal solution would be a NINO and +QBO. NAO is typically a tossup. we haven't really had a true negative NAO in a decade during the Winter. The whole summer has been negative, however. The NAO will most likely go positive during the winter based on trends/how unlucky the SE is. I would count on us having a SE ridge due to the above-average Atlantic temperatures. However, one thing that could save us Is that If we end up having a Nina we would most likely a stronger polar jet and less of an effect of the Sub Jet(which brings us rain and hot soup. Even though there may be less moisture associated with the potential clippers we may receive, If we an get the right setups ie, EPO, PNA, NAO with the Norther Stream we could get several storms chances like we did December 2017. If that setup were to occur we could get more systems farther south due to the higher chance of not being impacted by a warm nose/WA. These are my winter thoughts.
 
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AVL. This winter favors north-east of there near GSO west to Boone
 
Here’s a chart for the latest sunspots. I believe Webb said somewhere that the Solar minimum helped influence the stratospheric warming last year? Looks like the numbers should be increasing by 2020. I remember people consistantly talking about how “historic” this minimum would be. If this factor didn’t help us last year then this year then It probably won’t end up happening next year.F79AB1CC-7890-47D2-9C8B-D6A98D898BF1.jpeg
 
Ollie Williams said:
Here’s a chart for the latest sunspots. I believe Webb said somewhere that the Solar minimum helped influence the stratospheric warming last year? Looks like the numbers should be increasing by 2020. I remember people consistantly talking about how “historic” this minimum would be. If this factor didn’t help us last year then this year then It probably won’t end up happening next year.View attachment 21316
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The CM prediction won't happen. That will be way off. The SC will be much closer. Regardless, I don't expect the continued very weak cycle to help the upcoming winter in the SE US.
 
Another interesting thing I noticed was that recently the Atlantic has cooled significantly over the past 7 days. The main reason the SE ridge has made a big appearance during the winter months. I honestly am not sure If this cooling will any way continue? Not sure which variables the track to monitor this other than SST analysis. This could also throw another wrench in the Hurricane season for those high ace forecasts. Another thing I find Interesting Is the Enso region. Anybody know the region has been cooling and warming in pockets?
cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png
 
I predict all of TN and NC will get ice, ice, and more ice. The three letter combo for winter 2020 will be ICE
 
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