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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

NWMSGuy said:
Quite foggy here and also warm in North MS so far this month. Isn’t there a saying about August fog and winter snows?
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I think it may be October fogs, but not sure! I’ve given up on folklore and everything else, with regards to snow in the south
 
JB was teasing the large increase of snow over Greenland.
Question: does anybody have the new Euro seasonal
A42FB605-8333-4EFC-AB57-908E1E4FDBF1.jpeg
 
Ollie Williams said:
JB was teasing the large increase of snow over Greenland.
Question: does anybody have the new Euro seasonal
View attachment 21444
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Poop ice cover! It’s Judah Cohens bread and butter and ain’t worth 2 pooping poops! Go by persimmon seeds, you’ll be better off!
 
Ollie Williams said:
Funny. I was doing some research this morning on the correlation between a -Nao during the summer and the effects on the winter. I hope to post those results tomorrow.
Edit: I quickly took a look at some years that had a similar North Atlantic Evolution and found 2003. Which I believe 2004 was the year that NC got a foot in CLT. View attachment 21441


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I really don't like the look of the Pacific though this year. It's torching! The Pacific pattern is more important imo. The Atlantic side just blocks up what the Pacific gives us. Warm Pacific screams howling Pac jet. Hope I'm wrong but we know how hard below average temps are to come by in the se recently.
 
Interesting research from BamWX on the AO. They found that -AO's in the summer before 2000 correlated to below average temps in December. After 2000 the -AO correlated to +average anomalies. Granted there were several other reasons those 4 winters sucked.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Interesting research from BamWX on the AO. They found that -AO's in the summer before 2000 correlated to below average temps in December. After 2000 the -AO correlated to +average anomalies. Granted there were several other reasons those 4 winters sucked.
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Just goes to confirm that there are other multi-decadal factors in play that have more influence. If there is a correlation, it is easily muted. I don't believe a summer -AO has any influence on the winter season weather drivers.
 
I additionally analyzed the correlation between the NAO in the summer and the effects on the winter. Taking June July August and finding the average of those months I used -.50-.50 as a representative to neutral. Anything farther away from those digits was decided as negative or positive NAO. In total there were 18 Analogs With strong a strong -NAO during the Summer and 11 with a strong +NAO

When I first started analyzing the data I noticed the the years that had -NAO’s tended to have a strong -NAO during the winter. Which exited me since that data was not watered down. I then took a look at the +NAO and It’s winter correlation and found unfortunately found that It had Similar results. Though a bit more watered down. I did take a look at the Neutral years and found a similar Unsurprising result. This leads me to believe that there really isn’t much correlation at all. On the other hand while Inquiring the data I noticed that the last decade or so during the summer has been very negative Including 08 09 10 11 12 14 15 16. Which we all know some were very warm. Figures It can't be flipped the other way around:rolleyes:. I didn’t find another decease with as many negatives as the most recent one. I however found the late 50’s early 60’s did have a string of summertime -NAO’s.
Just for the Fun of It here are the composites.
-NAO During the summer-Composites in the Winter and temperature anomalies by year
1955 Normal/AA
1957 Normal/AA
1958 BA
1959 Normal
1963 BA
1964 BA
1975 AA
1981 BA
1988 BA
1994 Normal
1999 AA
2009 Normal
2010 BA
2011 Normal
2012 AA
2013 Normal/BA
2015 Normal/BA
2016 Normal
-NAO Winter.png
+NAO During the summer-Composites in the Winter and temperature Anomalies by year
1956 Normal
1968 BA
1971 BA
1973 Normal
1977 BA
1980 BA
1984 Normal/BA
1995 Normal/AA
1997 AA
2014 BA
2019 AA
+NAO TEMPS.png
 
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NWMSGuy said:
It’s always fun to read and watch people’s take on the upcoming winters every year and the below blog can be included!

Very lengthy but a great read if you have the time:

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/?m=1
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. Eventually a colder and snowier SE will happen. It’s been predicted every winter it feels like.



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NoSnowATL said:
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. Eventually a colder and snowier SE will happen. It’s been predicted every winter it feels like.
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1. I sense some warranted sarcasm here. It is obvious that most of these forecasts year after year have cold dominating the country, making them wrong most of the time until the broken clock happens to have the right time

2. I don't know Jack about this forecaster, but amazingly they have "warmer" in just one small corner of the country. I'm shocked and stunned.

3. Ironically, even with the vast majority colder than normal, this forecaster still has the SE ridge lmao.

4. I'm still sticking with my forecast of another overall mild DJF in the SE US. The trend (SER domination) is your friend. It isn't wise to go against the trend and try to catch a falling knife.

5. JB has been hinting at another cold winter forecast yawn. He in 2018-9 had just about THE worst winter forecast even he has ever had.

6. I've also been saying that we'll actually have a shot at a cold winter in the SE US in 2020-1 though that is not a forecast this far out of course.
 
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GaWx said:
1. I sense some warranted sarcasm here. It is obvious that most of these forecasts year after year have cold dominating the country, making them wrong most of the time until the broken clock happens to have the right time

2. I don't know Jack about this forecaster, but amazingly they have "warmer" in just one small corner of the country. I'm shocked and stunned.

3. Ironically, even with the vast majority colder than normal, this forecaster still has the SE ridge lmao.

4. I'm still sticking with my forecast of another overall mild DJF in the SE US. The trend (SER domination) is your friend. It isn't wise to go against the trend and try to catch a falling knife.

5. JB has been hinting at another cold winter forecast yawn. He in 2018-9 had just about THE worst winter forecast even he has ever had.

6. I've also been saying that we'll actually have a shot at a cold winter in the SE US in 2020-1 though that is not a forecast this far out of course.
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I'm not sure it's even possible to have a below average season at this point anytime of the year in this climate. Maybe when the 1991-2020 normals come out and include the dumpster fire 2010s we will we have normal anomalies? Or will the 2020s make the 2010s look cold? But this winter, regardless of what the teles look like or how good it may look, we'll do good to have one of the three winter months below average. And even if we do have a month below it'll probably result from a 2 week Arctic blast and the rest of even that month will be warm. Just how it's been lately.
 
GaWx said:
1. I sense some warranted sarcasm here. It is obvious that most of these forecasts year after year have cold dominating the country, making them wrong most of the time until the broken clock happens to have the right time

2. I don't know Jack about this forecaster, but amazingly they have "warmer" in just one small corner of the country. I'm shocked and stunned.

3. Ironically, even with the vast majority colder than normal, this forecaster still has the SE ridge lmao.

4. I'm still sticking with my forecast of another overall mild DJF in the SE US. The trend (SER domination) is your friend. It isn't wise to go against the trend and try to catch a falling knife.

5. JB has been hinting at another cold winter forecast yawn. He in 2018-9 had just about THE worst winter forecast even he has ever had.

6. I've also been saying that we'll actually have a shot at a cold winter in the SE US in 2020-1 though that is not a forecast this far out of course.
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Unfortunately I tend to agree that the SER will give us an overall mild winter, but not without winter giving us a look.
 
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