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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

January will be below average this winter! You heard it here first!
 
I dont know why anyone in AL would not be optimistic concerning winter considering the past ten years. Just too bad for yall in NC.
 
Nc always sees some sort of winter weather, most of the time it’s crap ahead of a rainstorm
 
pcbjr said:
Gonna be one miserable winter on this board with that showing up ...
Click to expand...
On the contrary the Pioneer model is actually warmer than last year. You also notice JB hasn’t been hyping this winter as much. It’s the 18th and he hasn’t released his outlook yet. Last year It was the 6th I believe. The last time his forecast looked meh. Was 17-18 which turned out pretty well. With the contrary of the last Pioneer model (see below) We might get something good. 6524CA2B-587F-4F23-8D72-E6871B97FFAD.png
 
Don’t fall for the cold bias of seasonal models:

I looked at the prior 8 years of JAMSTEC July SE US winter predictions to see how it did to give me an idea of how to treat the current cold prediction:

Winter..........Prediction...........Actual...........Missed by
18-19...............-2......................+4...................-6
17-18...............-1.....................+2.5...............-3.5
16-17................0......................+5..................-5
15-16................-1.....................+3..................-4
14-15...............-3.....................-1.5..............-1.5
13-14................+1....................-0.5................+1.5
12-13...............-0.5...................+3..................-3.5
11-12................+1.....................+4..................-3

- The average miss of last 8 JAMSTEC July forecasts is a whopping -3!
- 7 of 8 were predicted too cold
- There were no warm forecasts but there were SIX warm winters
- The average miss of the last 4 is a whopping -4.6!
- So, the cold bias is getting worse. This is absolutely sucktastic.
- Don’t fall for the cold bias, folks. It will save you major disappointment.
 
GaWx said:
Don’t fall for the cold bias of seasonal models:

I looked at the prior 8 years of JAMSTEC July SE US winter predictions to see how it did to give me an idea of how to treat the current cold prediction:

Winter..........Prediction...........Actual...........Missed by
18-19...............-2......................+4...................-6
17-18...............-1.....................+2.5...............-3.5
16-17................0......................+5..................-5
15-16................-1.....................+3..................-4
14-15...............-3.....................-1.5..............-1.5
13-14................+1....................-0.5................+1.5
12-13...............-0.5...................+3..................-3.5
11-12................+1.....................+4..................-3

- The average miss of last 8 JAMSTEC July forecasts is a whopping -3!
- 7 of 8 were predicted too cold
- There were no warm forecasts but there were SIX warm winters
- The average miss of the last 4 is a whopping -4.6!
- So, the cold bias is getting worse. This is absolutely sucktastic.
- Don’t fall for the cold bias, folks. It will save you major disappointment.
Click to expand...

It’s 100 degrees outside . I’ll buy all the cold bias maps I can find IMG_2707.JPG


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