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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

This may be a bit off topic but despite all of the negativity and frustration that goes on down here during the winter, I feel like the winter climate here("here" being NC/Upstate SC/The upper south) is the most interesting winter climate in the east coast.

Further up north snow is commonplace and it is almost always a question of "how much?" instead of "will it?". Further South and snow is too rare to really care about a lot of years. But down here, we're just in that sweet spot, and especially with the Apps to the west making CAD a possibility winters are really interesting.

The sheer unpredictability of winter storms down here compared to the rest of the east coast and whether if it's gonna be snow or a mix is what makes winters down here really special, at least in my opinion.

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The 60's had periods of unrelenting cold, but it was dry cold. I remember walking the mile home from school and it being under 10, which is unusual for Atl. Of course that was in midtown...the airport probably had 30's, lol. We had a period several winters ago when I didn't get above freezing for nearly a week, but it was dry cold. I'd rather have weeks of unrelenting southern stream impulses with intermittent bouts of cold coming down, lol. Better shot at timing, since the south can see the best set up the world has ever seen, and pull nada out of it, more often than not :)
 
Pendulum has to swing back sometime. And often it seems we go from one extreme to the other to even things out.
 
I can say with almost certainty there will be way more above normal temp days vs at or below normal days by far this winter. Beginning to think we'll never see a winter average below normal in our lifetime again.

Well, we may actually get below normal departures when the averages skyrocket but what I mean is winter temps like we all remember back on the day. Unless you were born in the 2000s and you dont know any better!
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I can say with almost certainty there will be way more above normal temp days vs at or below normal days by far this winter. Beginning to think we'll never see a winter average below normal in our lifetime again.
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Hey I’m just happy we still get snow. I mean NC at least has been lucky to get a large snow event every year since 2014 to put us at above average. the era back in 2006, was filled with snow droughts.


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I don’t see all the negativity being needed right now!? I mean JB going normal for the SE, and that Anthony M guy going 5-6 week stretch of cold, I’m excited for this winter, even more than the overhyped last two! Plus October torch, giddyup! I’m going 200% of normal @ GSP!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I don’t see all the negativity being needed right now!? I mean JB going normal for the SE, and that Anthony M guy going 5-6 week stretch of cold, I’m excited for this winter, even more than the overhyped last two! Plus October torch, giddyup! I’m going 200% of normal @ GSP!
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200% of Normal sleet ?
 
Ollie Williams said:
Hey I’m just happy we still get snow. I mean NC at least has been lucky to get a large snow event every year since 2014 to put us at above average. the era back in 2006, was filled with snow droughts.


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Yep indeed , both raleigh and Greensboro . Especially Greensboro , are extremely above average for snow this decade . It’s unreal ! Think y’all posted maps that had Greensboro at 750% of normal ... thing was the map couldn’t go any higher so it’s likely much much more than 750% above average .

We are due some more low snow years .
 
Lickwx said:
Yep indeed , both raleigh and Greensboro . Especially Greensboro , are extremely above average for snow this decade . It’s unreal ! Think y’all posted maps that had Greensboro at 750% of normal ... thing was the map couldn’t go any higher so it’s likely much much more than 750% above average .

We are due some more low snow years .
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I must not understand how that's calculated. Greensboro averages 9 inches per yrs from what I recall. That means you should have 81 for the decade. 7 times that much is over 500 inches. No way that's accurate!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I don’t see all the negativity being needed right now!? I mean JB going normal for the SE, and that Anthony M guy going 5-6 week stretch of cold, I’m excited for this winter, even more than the overhyped last two! Plus October torch, giddyup! I’m going 200% of normal @ GSP!
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200% is like 9.4 inches. Very doable you would think but considering it's been 25 yrs since a double digit snow year I'd take the under on that! Bet the streak!
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
200% is like 9.4 inches. Very doable you would think but considering it's been 25 yrs since a double digit snow year I'd take the under on that! Bet the streak!
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It’s hard to get 9.4” of sleet!?
At 3:1 ratios, plus compaction, we would only need right at 4” of QPF!
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I must not understand how that's calculated. Greensboro averages 9 inches per yrs from what I recall. That means you should have 81 for the decade. 7 times that much is over 500 inches. No way that's accurate!
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Greensboro averages 7.5 inches per year on 81-10. If we look at 2010-2019 the average has been 9.7! 9.7 inches would be more like Asheville.

Even if I expand the period in question to 2000-2019 for Greensboro they still have seen more snow than normal with an avg of 8.7. If I do 1991-2019 I get 7.3 inches. Essentially Greensboros snow average will be exactly the same 91-20 as it was 81-10. Raleigh, on the other hand, was about to dip below 5 inches for 91-19 until that December snowfall, that isn't to say we haven't been snowy this decade, on the contrary, we have! It's just in previous decades we were snowless lol.

Raleigh snowfall averages:

81-10: 6.1
91-19: 5.2
00-10: 7.2
10-19: 5.3
00-19: 6.2
91-00: 5.2

Excuse the disarray in my displaying of the information, it really seems it's the 90s that brought us down! I can break into some short 5 year periods if yall want to see something horrifying lol ( 2005-2010 averaged 3 inches only). Essentially on the new set of averages, Raleigh will be an inch or so less snowy on avg than 81-10, not too mention though we must keep in mind 2000 skews the averages a bit lol. Id imagine the median snowfall to be less than our mean just because of boom years like that; although, this would be even more true for places that average far less snowfall like the Carolina coast or deep south, averages skewed by one big snowfall of a few inches once a decade when in reality most years see far less. 91-19 we have had 11 above average snowfall years only.
 
Lickwx said:
Greensboro averages 7.5 inches per year on 81-10. If we look at 2010-2019 the average has been 9.7! 9.7 inches would be more like Asheville.

Even if I expand the period in question to 2000-2019 for Greensboro they still have seen more snow than normal with an avg of 8.7. If I do 1991-2019 I get 7.3 inches. Essentially Greensboros snow average will be exactly the same 91-20 as it was 81-10. Raleigh, on the other hand, was about to dip below 5 inches for 91-19 until that December snowfall, that isn't to say we haven't been snowy this decade, on the contrary, we have! It's just in previous decades we were snowless lol.

Raleigh snowfall averages:

81-10: 6.1
91-19: 5.2
00-10: 7.2
10-19: 5.3
00-19: 6.2
91-00: 5.2

Excuse the disarray in my displaying of the information, it really seems it's the 90s that brought us down! I can break into some short 5 year periods if yall want to see something horrifying lol ( 2005-2010 averaged 3 inches only). Essentially on the new set of averages, Raleigh will be an inch or so less snowy on avg than 81-10, not too mention though we must keep in mind 2000 skews the averages a bit lol. Id imagine the median snowfall to be less than our mean just because of boom years like that; although, this would be even more true for places that average far less snowfall like the Carolina coast or deep south, averages skewed by one big snowfall of a few inches once a decade when in reality most years see far less. 91-19 we have had 11 above average snowfall years only.
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I'd appreciate a flake ... it would mean that #killSER worked ... o_O
 
Eastern NC is actually the biggest winner in the recent decade.

55FE306B-8D04-4895-A396-D9981540C292.gifF1921CAF-7B5C-4E4D-96E9-566B559BCA16.png
We have actually seen an increase in snow over the last few years. But remember it’s deceptive. Those Eastern NC areas average 1-3 (2-6 in current decade) inches of snow a year. So you are talking 2 minor events instead of one. It’s not really a massive change. And some large eastern NC storms are likely skewing this much higher in the 2012-2019 plotting.

Basically when you average 2 inches a year (like a lot of Eastern NC does) one storm gets you to 200-300% of normal. Sounds epic! But really it was a 4-6inch snowfall. That is epic for those areas though.

And vice versa for NW NC and my area in NE TN. Snowfall is down just under %100 of normal in this decade but those areas are still averaging 10-15+ a year. Only a drop of a couple inches.
 
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Fountainguy97 said:
Eastern NC is actually the biggest winner in the recent decade.

View attachment 23912View attachment 23913
We have actually seen an increase in snow over the last few years. But remember it’s deceptive. Those Eastern NC areas average 1-3 (2-6 in current decade) inches of snow a year. So you are talking 2 minor events instead of one. It’s not really a massive change. And some large eastern NC storms are likely skewing this much higher in the 2012-2019 plotting.

Basically when you average 2 inches a year (like a lot of Eastern NC does) one storm gets you to 200-300% of normal. Sounds epic! But really it was a 4-6inch snowfall. That is epic for those areas though.

And vice versa for NW NC and my area in NE TN. Snowfall is down just under %100 of normal in this decade but those areas are still averaging 10-15+ a year. Only a drop of a couple inches.
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I’m seeing what it is you’re posting but I just don’t believe it
 
Sleet City USA said:
I-85. Its a meteorological wonder when it comes to snow
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it really is amazing how the leeside cold shows up on these maps.
It’s a great thing for many in NC. But there is also the other side of the cutoff which isn’t nearly as fun.

I lived in SE Raleigh for 5 years and I was on the rain side of the cutoff many a time. It is not a fun time haha
 
pcbjr said:
If we're talking 1964-65 winter, given the past few, I'd take it in a heartbeat ...

View attachment 23937
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According to Webb's site https://www.webberweather.com/
NC only got one snow event that winter, however, It was a pretty good one
january_16-17_1965_nc_snowmap.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
According to Webb's site https://www.webberweather.com/
NC only got one snow event that winter, however, It was a pretty good one
january_16-17_1965_nc_snowmap.png
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Y'all can get all the snow you want ... makes no nevermind when I wake up (though I really do root for you to get a ton ... really) ... what makes a nevermind is that a normal winter means a few fires, more than a few freezes, and a pleasant change ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
Y'all can get all the snow you want ... makes no nevermind when I wake up (though I really do root for you to get a ton ... really) ... what makes a nevermind is that a normal winter means a few fires, more than a few freezes, and a pleasant change ... :cool:
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It ain't right that that sun is wearing shades. He/she need's to be in a toboggan mask :) Of course, it ain't right to be in the mid nineties every day in Sept, but it happens more and more. Winters get shorter, and the chances decrease accordingly, and winter is too short as it is. And the misery just goes on and on. Well, at least the tropical humidity has eased some, that's a help, but help is just a word when it's 95 in late September, lol.
 
dsaur said:
It ain't right that that sun is wearing shades. He/she need's to be in a toboggan mask :) Of course, it ain't right to be in the mid nineties every day in Sept, but it happens more and more. Winters get shorter, and the chances decrease accordingly, and winter is too short as it is. And the misery just goes on and on. Well, at least the tropical humidity has eased some, that's a help, but help is just a word when it's 95 in late September, lol.
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just hopin' that if a post causes good juju ...
 
Anyone know where I can find articles / research papers on how the SER is more influential on the southeast some winter seasons than in others?
 
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