I think it is partly because these weenies don’t live in the west and they always assume a predominant +PNA/trough in E US since that’s what they want. I bet part of that is due to the +PNA bias of the seasonal models. I bet if there were western weenies making forecasts, they’d be assuming something other than a warm west and may actually assume a warm east for a change.
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
I think it is partly because these weenies don’t live in the west and they always assume a predominant +PNA/trough in E US since that’s what they want. I bet part of that is due to the +PNA bias of the seasonal models. I bet if there were western weenies making forecasts, they’d be assuming something other than a warm west and may actually assume a warm east for a change.
pcbjr
Member
I hate assumptions ... probabilities are one thing ... possibilities quite a lesser ...
Yellow shading = Brent screw zone!
If the warm west pans out, that should be great for us!? But Seattle still finds a 2 week , epic , snowy period, why we baste in the 70s and keep looking for the pattern flip at hour 384 on the GFS!?
cd2play
Member
Maybe the yellow zone is the Baby Shark do do do do do zone.
The 70s sounds wonderful right now! Winter is always far better than summer imo regardless of how it turns out.
Bryce Shelton
Member
Coastal storms in TN and KY? WHATTTT ?
SimeonNC
Member
I think the creator means that storms riding up the East Coast will bring snow to those areas.
You would think these guy/gals would take a hint. These weenies have been wrong for about three years and a row, only for the same forecast to verify over and over again. They would think that they’re doing something wrong and learn from their mistakes. Am I right?!! I’ve seen people on YouTube that said the exact same thing weenies said last year. We’re they right last year no! Why do they think they’d be right again!? I don’t even think you’d have an idea about a winter forecast this early and have the pattern and wind patterns correctly analyzed and verify to the winter. I mean goodness sakes It’s mid August! The only way you can do that is by looking at seasonal models which 9 times out of 10 dead wrong. You would expect something would go off and say maybe I shouldn’t use this In my forecast. Weenies get exited, they get their hopes up and the cycle starts all over again. Hopefully my post didn’t sound too hostile
Philstorm91
Member
I think what makes this tricky for some of those internet Winter weenies is that sometimes the signals appear to be there months, even weeks before winter. Then the expected pattern shift is either delayed all winter, or never comes to pass. Or if things look good it's not to the extent that all the hype had put it. I agree that when in doubt to err on the warmer side of things though. I hope we're wrong about this winter, but it's hard to fight the trend.You would think these guy/gals would take a hint. These weenies have been wrong for about three years and a row, only for the same forecast to verify over and over again. They would think that they’re doing something wrong and learn from their mistakes. Am I right?!! I’ve seen people on YouTube that said the exact same thing weenies said last year. We’re they right last year no! Why do they think they’d be right again!? I don’t even think you’d have an idea about a winter forecast this early and have the pattern and wind patterns correctly analyzed and verify to the winter. I mean goodness sakes It’s mid August! The only way you can do that is by looking at seasonal models which 9 times out of 10 dead wrong. You would expect something would go off and say maybe I shouldn’t use this In my forecast. Weenies get exited, they get their hopes up and the cycle starts all over again. Hopefully my post didn’t sound too hostile
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That epic cold snap of Jan 18/19 was amazing, I don’t think it was supposed to be that cold at any point? Even though it didn’t produce snow for many, I’ll always remember that! Even in the devils crotch of GSP, had frozen bodies of water that were walkable!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
NC is a winter battle zone every winter.
Not sure who did this, but I still have not seen any winter forecasts from the usual folks yet, like Matthew East, Allan Huffman, and WxSouth. They seem to be waiting until later this year.
packfan98
Moderator
Most of those guys don't release their official winter forecast until the end of October. We haven't made it to fall yet.
Still betting on NC getting a miller B transfer/CAD mix bag with a +NAO, -EPO, I’m kinda not liking these winters as they continue just because a big ol ice storm is becoming so overdue, it won’t be long before a big one happens again
SimeonNC
Member
To be fair the whole winter battle zone thing is true-ish, pretty much all of our storms are mixed.
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Yeah, the upper levels are a hot, dumpy mess! Even if we had 2 meter temps in the teens, the warm nose would give us sleet!??
pcbjr
Member
Dude, I'll take sleet any day ... kills invasive Cuban frogs ...
Even the holy grail of storms for me, Jan 88, ended as freezing drizzle and sleet, with a temperature of about 15 degrees, to put a nice 1/4” crust on my 16” of powder!! So, it’s been around for awhile!Dude, I'll take sleet any day ... kills invasive Cuban frogs ...
pcbjr
Member
yeah ... but you don't have to deal with those frogs that spit poison and leave poop worse than rats every where ... and know what ... no natural predators, no hawk, no snake, no nothing will touch them, and no bait will kill them (hell, IFAS says "catch them and put them in your freezer" (like I'm gonna catch a poison spitting frog ... though my gigging expertise is getting better by the evening)) ... but ------ ... last time we had a three night solid real freeze (eons) there were hundreds of dead ones all over the ground ... and none seen the next summer ... so for the sake of sanity, I'm prayin' for a 1983, 1985, 1989, or 1899 repeat ... or a Tony (@dsaur) sleet fest in Gainesville ...
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