Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

[Webberweather53]

The International Multimodel Ensemble (IMME) is torchy. (essentially the IMME consists of NMME + Euro seasonal)

In reality there will be some areas in this map that end up below normal but for now until we actually have enough confidence wrt who that will be (if we ever do), a persistence forecast is the "safe" option although I definitely think this is probably too warm in the end.





This nearly perpetual +PDO and waning warm AMO w/ extremely persistent -EPOs started in 2012-13 and taking the average of all winters since then is a good place to start. The IMME isn't too far off except over the upper midwest/northern Rockies where the core of the cold anomalies from the -EPO tend to be the strongest. The SE US on the whole is ~1.5F-2F above normal over this period, any seasonal forecast &/or old analogs should really be starting at this warmer base point instead of at 0 based on the 1981-2010 base period because it's beyond obvious at this juncture the background climate is already warmer than the 1981-2010 mean.


In case anyone was curious how last year panned out...

After accounting for spread between winters dampening the anomalies in a composite & even if you took out 2018-19 in the above composite, a persistence forecast based on 2012-13 thru 2017-18 would have virtually given you the end result over North America in 2018-19.



Just some things to think about...

 

[GaWx]

Last year around this time, we were being fooled by the following (Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me). Look familiar?

 

[GaWx]

And here is this gem from Weather Bell, which fell for the frigid Pioneer and other crappy cold models (they were pretty much all cold in the SE; the SE cold bias is the worst) hook, line, and sinker:

 

[Rosie]

And here is this gem from Weather Bell, which fell for the frigid Pioneer and other crappy cold models (they were pretty much all cold in the SE; the SE cold bias is the worst) hook, line, and sinker:

View attachment 21770

?

 

[Brick Tamland]

And here is this gem from Weather Bell, which fell for the frigid Pioneer and other crappy cold models (they were pretty much all cold in the SE; the SE cold bias is the worst) hook, line, and sinker:

View attachment 21770

I remember that. I also have not seen any forecasts for this winter yet. Maybe folks are learning their lesson.

 

[Webberweather53]

"Maybe folks are learning their lesson."







Unfortunately, some never learn.

 

[Webberweather53]

And here is this gem from Weather Bell, which fell for the frigid Pioneer and other crappy cold models (they were pretty much all cold in the SE; the SE cold bias is the worst) hook, line, and sinker:

View attachment 21770

This has to go down as one of Joe Bastardi's worst winter forecasts in history lol & that's saying a lot.

Literally couldn't have been further from reality if he tried.

You hate to see it.

 

[Webberweather53]

This has to go down as one of Joe Bastardi's worst winter forecasts in history lol & that's saying a lot.

Literally couldn't have been further from reality if he tried.

You hate to see it.

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I personally thought the anomaly distribution going into the winter wasn't unreasonable but I was clearly hesitant to go w/ anything < 1-2F below in the SE US. That forecast too would have busted but not to the level his did lol

 

[SD]

Holy s****!!!! I’d give a lot for this to verify


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Its fake news

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[tennessee storm]

Last year around this time, we were being fooled by the following (Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me). Look familiar?

View attachment 21767View attachment 21768View attachment 21769

Yeah. Definitely not falling for this again... lesson well learned after last winter ....

 

[KyloG]

It's hard to imagine a BN winter occurring but you would think eventually it's going to happen again, it's been 4 consecutive winters with AN temps in the SE.. Tough to shake persistence.

Though, 3 of my favorite winter events have occurred in the past 2 winters so if we can keep that up.

 

[Tarheel1]

Holy s****!!!! I’d give a lot for this to verify


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It’s fixed, so it has to be right!!?

Its fake news

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Ventrice said the Cansips is fixed !!! ????
And it’s kicking out awesome cold and snowy forecasts already! Game on!

 

[deltadog03]

I think you would be a fool to forecast anything BN here in the SE. We can hope for high latitude blocking right? lmao

 

[SimeonNC]

TBH I think this is our best chance of BN temps so far. Solar minimum, +PDO, no cold blob of death up around Greenland, and so on.


Not saying that blockbuster cold is coming but discounting the chance for a BN winter entirely is just a lot of jaded-ness showing.

Also, the past few winters have proven that we do not need wall to wall blockbuster cold for good storms, if anything as I have said in the past, long stretches of cold is pretty much always paired with a bone dry pattern.

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[Ollie Williams]

Turns out the CanSip was lying to us. Still has awesome blocking but there's a SE ridge, figures. But hey on the bright side I still would pay for this to verify. We probably won't get this nice blocking over the top when all said in done.

 

[Webberweather53]

TBH I think this is our best chance of BN temps so far. Solar minimum, +PDO, no cold blob of death up around Greenland, and so on.


Not saying that blockbuster cold is coming but discounting the chance for a BN winter entirely is just a lot of jaded-ness showing.

Also, the past few winters have proven that we do not need wall to wall blockbuster cold for good storms, if anything as I have said in the past, long stretches of cold is pretty much always paired with a bone dry pattern.

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Well that isn't necessarily true in this case. The cold blob is actually still there it's just sequestered underneath the strong +near-surface SSTAs. Once the upper ocean mixed layer deepens as winter approaches it will probably reappear yet again. This so-called "re-emergence" mechanism is how we get interannual persistence of winter-time extratropical SSTs from year-to-year and one of the main physical drivers behind the PDO.

 

[SD]

It's hard to imagine a BN winter occurring but you would think eventually it's going to happen again, it's been 4 consecutive winters with AN temps in the SE.. Tough to shake persistence.

Though, 3 of my favorite winter events have occurred in the past 2 winters so if we can keep that up.

It's going to be fun to see how things go at the pole over the next few weeks. We have seen above normal heights for the majority of summer. Im worried that means a slam dunk hyper +AO/NAO winter and one of the warmest on record. If that negative height trend continues into winter it could be a lot of fun

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[SimeonNC]

Well that isn't necessarily true in this case. The cold blob is actually still there it's just sequestered underneath the strong +near-surface SSTAs. Once the upper ocean mixed layer deepens as winter approaches it will probably reappear yet again. This so-called "re-emergence" mechanism is how we get interannual persistence of winter-time extratropical SSTs from year-to-year and one of the main physical drivers behind the PDO.

I never knew that, well everything else still stands lol

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[Webberweather53]

I still don't understand the weenie obsession with making the west warmer than normal in every winter forecast.

Apparently this is making its rounds on facebook. smh

I love how there's no label for the yellow area in west Texas.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I still don't understand the weenie obsession with making the west warmer than normal in every winter forecast.

Apparently this is making its rounds on facebook. smh

I love how there's no label for the yellow area in west Texas.

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I don’t feel good about where “worst of winter” shade was placed. Cutters and rubbers incoming