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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Even if we have a very warm winter, but if we can get one winter storm, i am content. That has always been my philosophy. Global warming is really something not to overlook. I just hope noone says the coldest on record like people did last winter, which didn't happen.
 
Hi guys. In all seriousness, does anyone know what type of pattern we need to take shape for us to get excited about upcoming winter? Last winter started real early, but soon changed dramatically to warmer regime.
Any good SE winter pattern probably starts with a time machine.

I'd say a good Pacific pattern that promotes a frequent +PNA, while ensuring the source region is loaded with cold air. Blocking near Greenland is helpful, but only if it's not blocking in mild Pacific flow. We've enjoyed a compliment of -EPO winters over the last several years. That's awesome for the Midwest, though.
 
Any good SE winter pattern probably starts with a time machine.

I'd say a good Pacific pattern that promotes a frequent +PNA, while ensuring the source region is loaded with cold air. Blocking near Greenland is helpful, but only if it's not blocking in mild Pacific flow. We've enjoyed a compliment of -EPO winters over the last several years. That's awesome for the Midwest, though.
Warm oceans, cold continents
Tree crushing, roof collapsing, pattern!
 
Usually a +pdo promotes more ridging out west during winter and -pdo is the opposite. With the strong Pacific jet last winter it matched good with the laniña atmosphere despite and elniño on paper. It happened in 2011-12 also, which wasn't cold. Most of the good weather experts went cold last winter, but busted pretty bad. Some smaller scale things turned into big issues in terms of cold weather pretty much anywhere.
 
Usually a +pdo promotes more ridging out west during winter and -pdo is the opposite. With the strong Pacific jet last winter it matched good with the laniña atmosphere despite and elniño on paper. It happened in 2011-12 also, which wasn't cold. Most of the good weather experts went cold last winter, but busted pretty bad. Some smaller scale things turned into big issues in terms of cold weather pretty much anywhere.
Polar vortex split and SSW events are the new buzzwords, they are about as useful as October ice growth! ?
 
Aye how about the MJO
Aye, Captain. But we all know the QBO rules the roost...as long as it's strongly positive going weakly negative in a fading Nina year. Or is it neutral going strongly neutral in a Nino year? Actually, no, I think it's when it is weakly positive going strongly positive dropping sharply neutral in a waxing La Nino year, coupled with a strong Westerly Wind Burst into a downwelling Kelvin Wave generated by a recurving typhoon during a negative RNA anticyclonic mountain torque supermoon episode on October 31.
 
So any thoughts? Are we actually still in El Niño territory heading for a Modoki El Niño?

We got @Webberweather53 on board here, care to share your thoughts Eric?

Very interested to know, to say the least!

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Is there a worse pattern


At least we aren't going to hype ourselves up for nothing again. Either it's right and we torch or it busts like it did last year with the cold and we end up cold. Of course warmer doesn't always mean no snow. I'd be worried about a lot of precip with El-ninos because they keep the humidity high and too much tropical air can prevent good snowstorms. It happens every year where there's hype and we don't get the cold required but we get the precip because the overall setup favors just above what we need.
 
Two words: cold bias.

Edit: Also, bamwx has energy clients, which could easily bias them to look for a cold winter. I think that's one of JB's problems to be honest.

Edit 2: Last year at this time, the model consensus was even colder! Don't fall for it, folks!

Larry us Snowmen need something positive to hang our hats on, even though you are most likely correct..................... It's not looking so good and that makes for a long sad winter! BTW- I appreciate your posts and all the work you put into them. Now let's get lucky this winter!
FROSTY
 
You know what..... I actually feel a little optimistic going into this winter. I am thinking that we have a normal winter for a change. Yes there will be some warmth, but I believe when all is said and done we will be closer to average. That would be a nice treat compared to last winter. It will all be up to the SER. Reminder SE ridges are harder to get established in a Nino winter. They are more favored in Nina years.
 
Two words: cold bias.

Edit: Also, bamwx has energy clients, which could easily bias them to look for a cold winter. I think that's one of JB's problems to be honest.

Edit 2: Last year at this time, the model consensus was even colder! Don't fall for it, folks!
Well, then my spiders have a cold bias, as they are now building some more amazing webs. I have huge leaves suspended 10 feet above the ground, yet 50 feet from the nearest tree. The sun caught this one just right this afternoon, and I could see the bullseye 15 feet up, and 20 feet across. More bird catchers, with leaves as bait. I'm hoping the leaf suspension height correlates to the dept of snow this winter, lol. Anything to counterbalance this awful Sept heat!!
 
You know what..... I actually feel a little optimistic going into this winter. I am thinking that we have a normal winter for a change. Yes there will be some warmth, but I believe when all is said and done we will be closer to average. That would be a nice treat compared to last winter. It will all be up to the SER. Reminder SE ridges are harder to get established in a Nino winter. They are more favored in Nina years.
So are -PNA's during Nina. Funny even though the ENSO ocean temperature anomalies are generally below average right now, we are seeing Nino affects. Last year we saw Nina affects. Of course other than the strong subtropical jet, but with the warmer than the average ocean that's not surprising.
 
Looks like some shades of last winter, ugly ridging south of AK, -PNA, +NAO, SER showing its ugly face, that’s a ugly winter pattern, even one that would support winter severe threats
Seattle looking good, again! ??
 
Looks like some shades of last winter, ugly ridging south of AK, -PNA, +NAO, SER showing its ugly face, that’s a ugly winter pattern, even one that would support winter severe threats
Take it to the bank. That will be 100% correct. If it was showing cold in wouldn't have a chance in hell. But warm verifies 99.9% of the time. Also looks just like last winter so atmospheric memory?
 
Nina signals are showing up. They’re either hit or miss
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3 months out and stock is put into this? I have a bridge to sell ...

I only posted for informational purposes. Take it for what it’s worth. But as others have indicated, the trend is usually your friend.
 
I only posted for informational purposes. Take it for what it’s worth. But as others have indicated, the trend is usually your friend.
There was nothing malicious or otherwise negative intended in my post ... just an observation about the temporal accuracy of any model ... if it came across otherwise, my bad ... ;)
 
Does a +PDO help or hurt the southeast US with regards to winter weather chances?
It helps because It boosts the chance of a +PNA which boosts a ridge in the west which promotes a trough in the east. That is a very favorable pattern for SE snow. Though we can’t guarantee the +PDO with persist through the winter months, however It did occur during the winters of 2014, 2015 which were pleasant across the East coast. 2014 is a winter many want a repeat of in the SE.
 
Does a +PDO help or hurt the southeast US with regards to winter weather chances?

Normally you kind of want some cooler water nosing in allowing that horseshoe shape, but still a +PDO is somewhat similar to the ENSO, but just last longer, and it can actually offset the ENSO if they are in different phases, but a +PDO normally means cooler anomalies in the SE and a more active STJ, if We can just get some Greenland blocking, then we may get a winter storm setup somewhat easily this year but a -NAO is hard to buy in winter 8474E81B-7495-450F-A0B4-4B29C3209DD7.jpeg
 
Normally you kind of want some cooler water nosing in allowing that horseshoe shape, but still a +PDO is somewhat similar to the ENSO, but just last longer, and it can actually offset the ENSO if they are in different phases, but a +PDO normally means cooler anomalies in the SE and a more active STJ, if We can just get some Greenland blocking, then we may get a winter storm setup somewhat easily this year but a -NAO is hard to buy in winter View attachment 23592
Not being selfish here ... just wishful ... for enough real cold to kill the invasive Cuban tree frogs back to the Everglades ... anything else IMBY would be a bonus from Heaven ...
 
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