ForsythSnow
Moderator
NC is more believable than TN because of CAD, but of course ice storms happen without it. If it's for NC and TN, it'll make its way into GA and AL as well. I doubt we see ice after ice. Possible to get 1 or 2 storms though.
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
tennessee storm
Member
SER. Southeast ridge...
Golf7575
Member
No niña for you Bruce!! Se ridges produce ice events here sometime.
NAO the thing that never exists in negative form outside of Summer for 8 years and counting....
GFS and or FV3. Been known to screw us *Cough* 18z
I'm thinking if it ends up cold neutral ENSOwise, there will for the ATL area be a decent shot at one major ZR or IP even with a mild winter. Cold neutral has by far had the highest %/the largest number of major ZRs for any ENSO including vs warm neutral. Some warm winter cold neutral analogs with a major ATL ZR: 1881-2, 1932-3, 1943-4, 1948-9
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Haven’t seen A big ice storm in a minute, either busts as more sleet, or it’s the last precipitation mode of a storm after things change over but the precip shield is already leaving
tennessee storm
Member
Didn’t say it couldn’t produce... just saying the southeast ridge will be predominantly in place... already seeing much warmer temps in Atlantic Ocean region... tells me the se ridge will be factor ... as usual
I agree while ENSO is still up in arms, the cold pool in The Epac probability isn’t going anywhere. In my opinion, I expect the cold pool the move west within the month.
Alternatively If that doesn’t happen we still could end up with a Nino or the “modoki” type. I remember Enthusiasts screaming modoki last year. Which verified to being a warm blob in the pacific. At this point that variable seems more likely now than last year
With a potentially cooler than average SST the northern stream should be dominant. Even though the winter will most likely be warm these systems could go farther south without having to worry to badly about CAD and WAA
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I'm in no way on board with a colder than average winter as a whole. That seems almost impossible in this climate. But the current sst up around Greenland are vastly different this year than they have been in quite sometime.
This trend started back in May and progressed through the summer. The correlation to May sst around Greenland has been noted as a predictor of the NAO the following winter.
You currently have a tripole of warm around Greenland, cold south of there and warm in the north central Atlantic. Some would say that's a pretty good indicator of blocking the following winter. Could we finally break the streak? Probably not a sustained -NAO but maybe we can squeeze in some blocking here and there and have the NAO average slightly negative for winter. But what will we block up? Mild Pacific air? That's anyone's guess.
This trend started back in May and progressed through the summer. The correlation to May sst around Greenland has been noted as a predictor of the NAO the following winter.
You currently have a tripole of warm around Greenland, cold south of there and warm in the north central Atlantic. Some would say that's a pretty good indicator of blocking the following winter. Could we finally break the streak? Probably not a sustained -NAO but maybe we can squeeze in some blocking here and there and have the NAO average slightly negative for winter. But what will we block up? Mild Pacific air? That's anyone's guess.
There’s little correlation between summer and winter -NAO. If anything, there’s been a slight negative correlation. Therefore, I currently see nothing to get in the way of another mild winter, unfortunately. But that never means no chance for a major winter storm for especially more northern areas from one or more threats. Let’s face it. Some of the more vocal posters here couldn’t care less whether or not the winter is cold, regardless, and some don’t even like it cold. Those folks mainly just want to get a major winter storm and they’re perfectly content.
pcbjr
Member
We always have the JAMSTEC and Pioneer to rely on ... among others ... failing those, the Almanac ...
SimeonNC
Member
I feel like the SSTs around Greenland will probably help us in some way if they remain warm. There could be a greater chance of Greenland blocking
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Funny. I was doing some research this morning on the correlation between a -Nao during the summer and the effects on the winter. I hope to post those results tomorrow.
Edit: I quickly took a look at some years that had a similar North Atlantic Evolution and found 2003. Which I believe 2004 was the year that NC got a foot in CLT.
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Edit: I quickly took a look at some years that had a similar North Atlantic Evolution and found 2003. Which I believe 2004 was the year that NC got a foot in CLT.
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I'm one of the ones who only care about snow! Although I do get tired of the +6 temp anomalies we get in winter anymore. I'll never wish for the deep freeze because 99% of the time that's dry. Give me average temps and 2 or 3 decent snow chances and I'm good!
Ilovesnow28
Member
It's hard not to be negative for the upcoming winter after measuring 0.00 inches the previous winter... So far expect the same this year unless something major changes
It will flip. We torch..one way or the other
Brent
Member
If we go snowless this winter it'll be 5 years in March!
Its already our longest snowless streak in recorded history
Its already our longest snowless streak in recorded history
NWMSGuy
Member
Quite foggy here and also warm in North MS so far this month. Isn’t there a saying about August fog and winter snows?
NoSnowATL
Member
Same here. I don’t count the T I got last year that lasted 30 minutes.
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