i think the curse ends for us this year. We’re way overdue for a 6” event. We lock it in this year with a hybrid clipper dropping in and pivoting over the upstate. It will be glorious
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Unless its frequent warm spells and then you can take it to the bank!Yeah, don't have a lot of confidence for a map that says freqeunt in it
SimeonNC
Member
My predictions.
Multiple sleepless nights waiting for the 00z models.
At least two occasions of the board going apepoop after a weenie run only to cliff jump when the next run isn't as good.
We will all be NAM'd at one point or another.
My backyard will get sleeted to hell while a few miles north of me gets pounded with snow.
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Multiple sleepless nights waiting for the 00z models.
At least two occasions of the board going apepoop after a weenie run only to cliff jump when the next run isn't as good.
We will all be NAM'd at one point or another.
My backyard will get sleeted to hell while a few miles north of me gets pounded with snow.
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NoSnowATL
Member
Sounds about right, only thing I would fixed is the sleet part for my area. We can’t even get sleet here while areas in all direction around me see snow. Living in the pit of winter hell is fantastic.
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Certainly not a prediction. We haven't had a devastating ICE storm since what 2004? Got that eerie feeling somewhere on this board gets a Ice Crush Job this season. I wouldn't wish that on anyone and am certainly NOT hoping it happens.
NoSnowATL
Member
It’s been since 2001 for my area, creeping on to almost 20 years.... ticking time bomb.
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pcbjr
Member
My thoughts ... 1899 will look like a walk in the park ... (and I have reasons to say that, given, among other things, the heat we've seen this spring and summer) ...
That’s the purple unicorn winter! It would make winter of 9/10 look like winter of 11/12! ?My thoughts ... 1899 will look like a walk in the park ... (and I have reasons to say that, given, among other things, the heat we've seen this spring and summer) ...
Winter is near, you can notice the days getting shorter!??
pcbjr
Member
There are reasons to hope ... but then hell, I'm in Tampa today/tonight for Gawd's sake ...
I saw that guys video on YouTube. He lives near Chicago so he doesn't realize what it takes for snow here in the south
Found another long range computer model from Beijing. I heard somewhere they have very high powered computers similar to the Euro. I’ve never seen any statistics though. The model was almost Identical to the Euro last year which we know didn’t work out too well. Last years run from September below.
For giggles here is this month’s run. 500mb Looks like a positive EPO
Model projects and El Niño so an active sub jet. Still could go either way as far as Enso
For giggles here is this month’s run. 500mb Looks like a positive EPO
Model projects and El Niño so an active sub jet. Still could go either way as far as Enso
Jon
Member
I’ve followed the BCC model for the last few years...I don’t see anyone else post on it, probably for good reason. I haven’t seen them do all that well with the last two winters. It’s also ran pretty frequently, I believe. It’s just not a good seasonal model — but with that said, I don’t think there’s such thing as a good seasonal model. They’re all trash.
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cd2play
Member
Here is my prediction for next winter: Every system that appears on the computer models, literally every system, Tennessee storm (Bruce) will predict it to be a severe weather event.
They're bad largely because the main ones are cold biased in the E US due to too strong a western ridge/eastern trough couplet. If one were to take any seasonal forecast from the main ones and warm it up substantially in the SE by assuming a much stronger SER, you'd have a much better chance of being close. I'm not at all exaggerating here.
I'll take a cool neutral in a heartbeat next winter.
Y’all obviously havnt seen the Pioneer model!? It’s the best! ?
Avalanche
Member
That's why I enter a fantasy storm with much skepticism. I know darn well there will be surface temp issues, multiple boundary layer issues. Seems like distant memory when we actually had a pure snow event.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The last such event I’ve seen here in Fayetteville is Feb 11 2014, most of the big dogs here are typically messy & I don’t recall an event since that hasn’t had sleet involved at some point
I don't remember Jan 17-18 2018 storm having any sleet. then again if you are referring to the Fayetteville area that storm wasn't really considered a "Big Dog there"