Even if we end up slightly warmer than average that will seem chilly compared to last winter. If we don't score one good storm this coming winter I would expect one the year after. That has been the trend after a non winter year like last year.
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
We can usually work a clipper in during a northern stream dominant winter. Hard to get frozen to fall with the Southern stream dumping hot air on you for 4 straight months. I’ll take my chances with a Niña for sure
MichaelJ
Member
I think it will be a Neutral ENSO year with normal temps and below normal precip until late Feb/March. Snow will be hard to come by outside the mountains but Ice will be a nuisance several times north of Ga.
I don't know If anyone saw this but It's just our luck that this happens In the middle of the summer
NoSnowATL
Member
Just a Avg winter here in ATL would be a win. I am looking forward to being missed to my north, east, south and west again with 2-3 32.6 degrees rain events.
Snowfall totals 0.1
Ice totals 0.1
Cold rain totals 4-9 inches.
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Snowfall totals 0.1
Ice totals 0.1
Cold rain totals 4-9 inches.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
MJO phase is more important than -NAO
pcbjr
Member
IMHO ... The rank for the majors is MJO, PNA, EPO, AO, and then NAO ... after all, the NAO can block, but if it's blocking maritime or even cool air, so what ...
Ryno23
Member
Y'all, I live in Maggie Valley NC and the winters here have sucked lately! Yeah, got our 13 in Dec storm then maybe 2in rest of the way. Idk, we use to average 20+ easy back in the day. However, remember playing bball in shorts in jan as well. 09/10 here was epic! Holy Wow! Snow didn't melt on Northside till April!. Take that again, please
Saw this from Ben Noll. Looks about right Lol. However seasonal models have proven to be horrible in regards to verifying.
Yuck.
Go with the warmth. Don’t fight reality. The trend is your friend. Models are, indeed, often wrong because they often have had it cold when it turned out mild. Not so much the other way. There’s been a cold bias overall due to too much ridging out west and too much troughing in the east. A model actually showing ridging in the east is obviously quite believable. Expecting another overall mild winter with confidence. Confidence is increased even further if we don’t have El Niño.
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cd2play
Member
If the only thing that said no snow was the devil it would be the one and only time he would be right. LOL
My prediction for RDU:
December - 0" snowfall, +3F above average
January - 2.6" snowfall, +1F above average
February - 0.6" snowfall, +4F above average
Hard to predict against December being warmer than normal for the 9th straight year. Last year's December snowfall was quite unusual so I'm going to go with a shutout for December. January likely won't be snowless again, so I'm going with one moderate event in January. Maybe one small event in February with sleet/ZR before mild weather sets in during the second half of the month.
This is based on gut feeling more than anything, and is not based off models.
December - 0" snowfall, +3F above average
January - 2.6" snowfall, +1F above average
February - 0.6" snowfall, +4F above average
Hard to predict against December being warmer than normal for the 9th straight year. Last year's December snowfall was quite unusual so I'm going to go with a shutout for December. January likely won't be snowless again, so I'm going with one moderate event in January. Maybe one small event in February with sleet/ZR before mild weather sets in during the second half of the month.
This is based on gut feeling more than anything, and is not based off models.
Big announcement from me tonight. I fully believe spring will quickly happen during late to maybe even mid winter southern Charlotte NC to Columbia SC and parts of Wake County NC. Winter will still be present February/March for northern foothills into Boone.
That sounds like par for the course, bird bro
LickWx
Member
Man It’s gonna suck, my next door neighbor might be on the spring side of wake county while I’m on the winter . Bird any indications where the lines will set up? Departures on either side of these arbitrarily drawn lines ? What is winter ? Explain! Negative anomalies ? Normal temps ? What is spring ! Man forecasters will struggle with this
Jon
Member
I feel like this thread gets earlier every year lol. Talking winter in July!? Not complaining, I love it!
In any event, way too early to call enso but it appears neutral to weak Niño is most probable. Nina appears out of the cards. I’ll take a neutral year any day.
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In any event, way too early to call enso but it appears neutral to weak Niño is most probable. Nina appears out of the cards. I’ll take a neutral year any day.
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I only want to see nino again, if I live in Seattle!?
Can't argue here.
Was kicking the tires on something like +5-7 for December 0-+2 Jan +3-5 for Feb -2-4 for Mar
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tennessee storm
Member
Take my chances with a weak Niña any day ... El Niño’s mostly boring winters. ... just wetI feel like this thread gets earlier every year lol. Talking winter in July!? Not complaining, I love it!
In any event, way too early to call enso but it appears neutral to weak Niño is most probable. Nina appears out of the cards. I’ll take a neutral year any day.
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