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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

CyclonicFury said:
My prediction for RDU:
December - 0" snowfall, +3F above average
January - 2.6" snowfall, +1F above average
February - 0.6" snowfall, +4F above average

Hard to predict against December being warmer than normal for the 9th straight year. Last year's December snowfall was quite unusual so I'm going to go with a shutout for December. January likely won't be snowless again, so I'm going with one moderate event in January. Maybe one small event in February with sleet/ZR before mild weather sets in during the second half of the month.

This is based on gut feeling more than anything, and is not based off models.
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What storm was that in your avatar?
 
Jon said:
I feel like this thread gets earlier every year lol. Talking winter in July!? Not complaining, I love it!

In any event, way too early to call enso but it appears neutral to weak Niño is most probable. Nina appears out of the cards. I’ll take a neutral year any day.

450cc99fc29b4e7eac184398610238ac.jpg



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Noaa's late to the party. They still have an el Nino advisory out. The Australian government has an Inactive status. As I posted earlier In Enso thread. Models still underestimating the cold pool in the Pacific though still a step forward towards a Nina/-Neutral. I do think the maps are Initializing to high. With the current trend of the cool east pacific, you can't help but notice the Nina chance should be higher. About a month or 2 ago we were at about 1.0 now .2.
 
GaWx said:
Another mild winter averaged out with SE ridge domination is likely. The trend is your friend. The warm ocean in combo with GW help make this likely to verify correctly. Regardless, I predict it will still be way more comfortable and therefore way more enjoyable than the summer. I expect there will still be a few short periods of intense cold as is almost always the case, which will make things interesting on occasion.

I also predict with even higher confidence that JB (and others) will predict cold and that that forecast will fail miserably.

I predict KATL will end up around 2-4F warmer than the 30 year normal or near 47-49 for DJF. There may be one major ZR or sleet threat if ENSO cools to cold neutral. There will be no major snows though they’ll be teased as usual with a threat or two. In addition to any possible sleet, I predict 0.4” of snow. So, it will be much snowier than last winter’s shutout but still well below the long term average near 2”. The northside will average near 1” of snow.
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From JB ramblings-
The CFSV2 is forecasting a La nina to evolve this winter.
so we have warm ring with NE pac warmth and the la nina

The blend of last winter and 2013-2014 match this SST forecast closely
The common denominator of both winters was outstanding cold showing up, centered overall in the heartland.
December and there is no reason not believe IMO that the warm southeast will not show up yet again. Looks like analogs show a WARM December and February, with somewhat Cold Jan and March (as of right now)! But I'm agree with you I'm sure the SE will have another not so good winter, BUT surely better than last! Fingers crossed. lol
 
Ollie Williams said:
Noaa's late to the party. They still have an el Nino advisory out. The Australian government has an Inactive status. As I posted earlier In Enso thread. Models still underestimating the cold pool in the Pacific though still a step forward towards a Nina/-Neutral. I do think the maps are Initializing to high. With the current trend of the cool east pacific, you can't help but notice the Nina chance should be higher. About a month or 2 ago we were at about 1.0 now .2.
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NOAA stated the Niño should break down soon, that’s why it has the advisory still out. This is from July 11th - it expects an enso neutral state to exist fall through winter.

I highly doubt we get a Niña this year. Weak Niña maybe at the tail end of Feb or March, but by then any impact it could possibly have would be missed. Such a reversal from the current AMJ state to a Niña in DJF of the same year hasn’t been seen since 1915.

Neutral looks pretty certain to me although yeah it is early as it’s July but it’s just highly unlikely for a Niña.


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Either way much of northern NC ( Greensboro) and western va are overdue a mild snowless winter . They are way over 1000% of snowfall for past 2 years if maps posted last winter still hold true .
 
Dec +6
Jan +2
Feb +4
Go with the trend. Only reason Jan is +2 is that's when we'll get our 10 day winter to tone down the torch, which may or may not get us to average snowfall.
Just for fun as I'm hoping for a decent winter. But after last year I'll plan on a torch and if its not then great!
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Dec +6
Jan +2
Feb +4
Go with the trend. Only reason Jan is +2 is that's when we'll get our 10 day winter to tone down the torch, which may or may not get us to average snowfall.
Just for fun as I'm hoping for a decent winter. But after last year I'll plan on a torch and if its not then great!
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Vast majority of Januaries in raleigh have been below average past decade . Even the supposedly torch January of 2019 was only +1 or so while Atlanta was near +10 . Crazy really RDU misses out on warmth. Then the januaries that were warm got some freak cold snap , or I should say low temps because of radiational cooling as what happened in 2017. Leaves only 12-13 as the big warm januaries this decade that’s it.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolView attachment 21268
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You’re speaking my language, Ollie
 
Ollie Williams said:
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolView attachment 21268
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This map is wack, dude must of been on that OG while making this
 
Ollie Williams said:
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolView attachment 21268
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All I can say to this is LOL I wish! But we all know above average on temps and a small snow at best is what's coming.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolView attachment 21268
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This will never happen and probably hasn’t ever happened in the past oh 1000 years. We all can wish I guess.


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Ollie Williams said:
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolView attachment 21268
Click to expand...
I thought this map was somewhat believable until i saw Jacksonville, FL in the region with big snows possible and some snow possible in Miami ?
 
I never have done any type of "forecast" but what the heck..... and honestly more gut feeling then anything and this far out probably about as accurate Lol.

Dec. +3 - a cool down beginning just before Christmas with a SE member seeing measurable snow before Jan. 1st
Jan. +.5 - close to average with at least 2 trackable systems but only 1 produces, but 1 does produce
Feb. +1.5 - cold to start the month with a decent early Feb system followed by a torch to bring Winter to a screeching halt

Overall mby - 8" snow total with one ice storm thrown in for good measure
Rah - 5.5" and a decent ice storm
I'm not throwing numbers out for other areas, I suck bad enough for my area why blow it completely.
 
14 ice storms for Catawba county.
I’m telling you, this is GSPs year!
Airport will be @ 200% of normal ( 12”)
Simpsonville = tr
The S of 85 curse continues
TR= 18” winter total
33-35 degree rain events= 12
 
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