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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

CyclonicFury said:
My prediction for RDU:
December - 0" snowfall, +3F above average
January - 2.6" snowfall, +1F above average
February - 0.6" snowfall, +4F above average

Hard to predict against December being warmer than normal for the 9th straight year. Last year's December snowfall was quite unusual so I'm going to go with a shutout for December. January likely won't be snowless again, so I'm going with one moderate event in January. Maybe one small event in February with sleet/ZR before mild weather sets in during the second half of the month.

This is based on gut feeling more than anything, and is not based off models.
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What storm was that in your avatar?
 
Jon said:
I feel like this thread gets earlier every year lol. Talking winter in July!? Not complaining, I love it!

In any event, way too early to call enso but it appears neutral to weak Niño is most probable. Nina appears out of the cards. I’ll take a neutral year any day.

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Noaa's late to the party. They still have an el Nino advisory out. The Australian government has an Inactive status. As I posted earlier In Enso thread. Models still underestimating the cold pool in the Pacific though still a step forward towards a Nina/-Neutral. I do think the maps are Initializing to high. With the current trend of the cool east pacific, you can't help but notice the Nina chance should be higher. About a month or 2 ago we were at about 1.0 now .2.
 
GaWx said:
Another mild winter averaged out with SE ridge domination is likely. The trend is your friend. The warm ocean in combo with GW help make this likely to verify correctly. Regardless, I predict it will still be way more comfortable and therefore way more enjoyable than the summer. I expect there will still be a few short periods of intense cold as is almost always the case, which will make things interesting on occasion.

I also predict with even higher confidence that JB (and others) will predict cold and that that forecast will fail miserably.

I predict KATL will end up around 2-4F warmer than the 30 year normal or near 47-49 for DJF. There may be one major ZR or sleet threat if ENSO cools to cold neutral. There will be no major snows though they’ll be teased as usual with a threat or two. In addition to any possible sleet, I predict 0.4” of snow. So, it will be much snowier than last winter’s shutout but still well below the long term average near 2”. The northside will average near 1” of snow.
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From JB ramblings-
The CFSV2 is forecasting a La nina to evolve this winter.
so we have warm ring with NE pac warmth and the la nina

The blend of last winter and 2013-2014 match this SST forecast closely
The common denominator of both winters was outstanding cold showing up, centered overall in the heartland.
December and there is no reason not believe IMO that the warm southeast will not show up yet again. Looks like analogs show a WARM December and February, with somewhat Cold Jan and March (as of right now)! But I'm agree with you I'm sure the SE will have another not so good winter, BUT surely better than last! Fingers crossed. lol
 
Ollie Williams said:
Noaa's late to the party. They still have an el Nino advisory out. The Australian government has an Inactive status. As I posted earlier In Enso thread. Models still underestimating the cold pool in the Pacific though still a step forward towards a Nina/-Neutral. I do think the maps are Initializing to high. With the current trend of the cool east pacific, you can't help but notice the Nina chance should be higher. About a month or 2 ago we were at about 1.0 now .2.
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NOAA stated the Niño should break down soon, that’s why it has the advisory still out. This is from July 11th - it expects an enso neutral state to exist fall through winter.

I highly doubt we get a Niña this year. Weak Niña maybe at the tail end of Feb or March, but by then any impact it could possibly have would be missed. Such a reversal from the current AMJ state to a Niña in DJF of the same year hasn’t been seen since 1915.

Neutral looks pretty certain to me although yeah it is early as it’s July but it’s just highly unlikely for a Niña.


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Either way much of northern NC ( Greensboro) and western va are overdue a mild snowless winter . They are way over 1000% of snowfall for past 2 years if maps posted last winter still hold true .
 
Dec +6
Jan +2
Feb +4
Go with the trend. Only reason Jan is +2 is that's when we'll get our 10 day winter to tone down the torch, which may or may not get us to average snowfall.
Just for fun as I'm hoping for a decent winter. But after last year I'll plan on a torch and if its not then great!
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Dec +6
Jan +2
Feb +4
Go with the trend. Only reason Jan is +2 is that's when we'll get our 10 day winter to tone down the torch, which may or may not get us to average snowfall.
Just for fun as I'm hoping for a decent winter. But after last year I'll plan on a torch and if its not then great!
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Vast majority of Januaries in raleigh have been below average past decade . Even the supposedly torch January of 2019 was only +1 or so while Atlanta was near +10 . Crazy really RDU misses out on warmth. Then the januaries that were warm got some freak cold snap , or I should say low temps because of radiational cooling as what happened in 2017. Leaves only 12-13 as the big warm januaries this decade that’s it.
 
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolD49E5479-65CC-41F1-8C62-30B353688AB6.jpeg
 
Ollie Williams said:
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolView attachment 21268
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You’re speaking my language, Ollie
 
Ollie Williams said:
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolView attachment 21268
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This map is wack, dude must of been on that OG while making this
 
Ollie Williams said:
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolView attachment 21268
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All I can say to this is LOL I wish! But we all know above average on temps and a small snow at best is what's coming.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolView attachment 21268
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This will never happen and probably hasn’t ever happened in the past oh 1000 years. We all can wish I guess.


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Ollie Williams said:
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolView attachment 21268
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I thought this map was somewhat believable until i saw Jacksonville, FL in the region with big snows possible and some snow possible in Miami ?
 
I never have done any type of "forecast" but what the heck..... and honestly more gut feeling then anything and this far out probably about as accurate Lol.

Dec. +3 - a cool down beginning just before Christmas with a SE member seeing measurable snow before Jan. 1st
Jan. +.5 - close to average with at least 2 trackable systems but only 1 produces, but 1 does produce
Feb. +1.5 - cold to start the month with a decent early Feb system followed by a torch to bring Winter to a screeching halt

Overall mby - 8" snow total with one ice storm thrown in for good measure
Rah - 5.5" and a decent ice storm
I'm not throwing numbers out for other areas, I suck bad enough for my area why blow it completely.
 
14 ice storms for Catawba county.
I’m telling you, this is GSPs year!
Airport will be @ 200% of normal ( 12”)
Simpsonville = tr
The S of 85 curse continues
TR= 18” winter total
33-35 degree rain events= 12
 
Tarheel1 said:
14 ice storms for Catawba county.
I’m telling you, this is GSPs year!
Airport will be @ 200% of normal ( 12”)
Simpsonville = tr
The S of 85 curse continues
TR= 18” winter total
33-35 degree rain events= 12
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i think the curse ends for us this year. We’re way overdue for a 6” event. We lock it in this year with a hybrid clipper dropping in and pivoting over the upstate. It will be glorious
 
My predictions.

Multiple sleepless nights waiting for the 00z models.

At least two occasions of the board going apepoop after a weenie run only to cliff jump when the next run isn't as good.

We will all be NAM'd at one point or another.

My backyard will get sleeted to hell while a few miles north of me gets pounded with snow.

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SimeonNC said:
My predictions.

Multiple sleepless nights waiting for the 00z models.

At least two occasions of the board going apepoop after a weenie run only to cliff jump when the next run isn't as good.

We will all be NAM'd at one point or another.

My backyard will get sleeted to hell while a few miles north of me gets pounded with snow.

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Sounds about right, only thing I would fixed is the sleet part for my area. We can’t even get sleet here while areas in all direction around me see snow. Living in the pit of winter hell is fantastic.


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Certainly not a prediction. We haven't had a devastating ICE storm since what 2004? Got that eerie feeling somewhere on this board gets a Ice Crush Job this season. I wouldn't wish that on anyone and am certainly NOT hoping it happens.
 
EV_WS said:
Certainly not a prediction. We haven't had a devastating ICE storm since what 2004? Got that eerie feeling somewhere on this board gets a Ice Crush Job this season. I wouldn't wish that on anyone and am certainly NOT hoping it happens.
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It’s been since 2001 for my area, creeping on to almost 20 years.... ticking time bomb.


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SimeonNC said:
My predictions.

Multiple sleepless nights waiting for the 00z models.

At least two occasions of the board going apepoop after a weenie run only to cliff jump when the next run isn't as good.

We will all be NAM'd at one point or another.

My backyard will get sleeted to hell while a few miles north of me gets pounded with snow.

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My thoughts ... 1899 will look like a walk in the park ... (and I have reasons to say that, given, among other things, the heat we've seen this spring and summer) ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
My thoughts ... 1899 will look like a walk in the park ... (and I have reasons to say that, given, among other things, the heat we've seen this spring and summer) ... o_O
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That’s the purple unicorn winter! It would make winter of 9/10 look like winter of 11/12! ?
 
Ollie Williams said:
Love these forecasts. Looks like the ice age is back. Brick and I get blizzards and cold. Mack and Jimmy get frequent cold and snow. GaWx and Storm5 May get some big snows. Hey Phil may even get snow. This poor guy sloshing in some of JB’s bath water. LolView attachment 21268
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I saw that guys video on YouTube. He lives near Chicago so he doesn't realize what it takes for snow here in the south
 
Found another long range computer model from Beijing. I heard somewhere they have very high powered computers similar to the Euro. I’ve never seen any statistics though. The model was almost Identical to the Euro last year which we know didn’t work out too well. Last years run from September below.7661BFFE-F428-4294-8559-61CD95AFEE9C.jpeg
For giggles here is this month’s run. 500mb Looks like a positive EPO
4F355345-03D4-4755-994C-822972B35E60.jpeg
Model projects and El Niño so an active sub jet. Still could go either way as far as Enso06121843-6347-4262-9C4F-93EB49F5BF1C.jpeg501118AA-5027-496F-94F0-C0408FCE147C.jpeg
 
Ollie Williams said:
Found another long range computer model from Beijing. I heard somewhere they have very high powered computers similar to the Euro. I’ve never seen any statistics though. The model was almost Identical to the Euro last year which we know didn’t work out too well. Last years run from September below.View attachment 21278
For giggles here is this month’s run. 500mb Looks like a positive EPO
View attachment 21279
Model projects and El Niño so an active sub jet. Still could go either way as far as EnsoView attachment 21280View attachment 21281
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I’ve followed the BCC model for the last few years...I don’t see anyone else post on it, probably for good reason. I haven’t seen them do all that well with the last two winters. It’s also ran pretty frequently, I believe. It’s just not a good seasonal model — but with that said, I don’t think there’s such thing as a good seasonal model. They’re all trash.


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Here is my prediction for next winter: Every system that appears on the computer models, literally every system, Tennessee storm (Bruce) will predict it to be a severe weather event.
 
Jon said:
I’ve followed the BCC model for the last few years...I don’t see anyone else post on it, probably for good reason. I haven’t seen them do all that well with the last two winters. It’s also ran pretty frequently, I believe. It’s just not a good seasonal model — but with that said, I don’t think there’s such thing as a good seasonal model. They’re all trash.
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They're bad largely because the main ones are cold biased in the E US due to too strong a western ridge/eastern trough couplet. If one were to take any seasonal forecast from the main ones and warm it up substantially in the SE by assuming a much stronger SER, you'd have a much better chance of being close. I'm not at all exaggerating here.
 
GaWx said:
They're bad largely because the main ones are cold biased in the E US due to too strong a western ridge/eastern trough couplet. If one were to take any seasonal forecast from the main ones and warm it up substantially in the SE by assuming a much stronger SER, you'd have a much better chance of being close. I'm not at all exaggerating here.
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Y’all obviously havnt seen the Pioneer model!? It’s the best! ?
 
GaWx said:
They're bad largely because the main ones are cold biased in the E US due to too strong a western ridge/eastern trough couplet. If one were to take any seasonal forecast from the main ones and warm it up substantially in the SE by assuming a much stronger SER, you'd have a much better chance of being close. I'm not at all exaggerating here.
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That's why I enter a fantasy storm with much skepticism. I know darn well there will be surface temp issues, multiple boundary layer issues. Seems like distant memory when we actually had a pure snow event.
 
Avalanche said:
That's why I enter a fantasy storm with much skepticism. I know darn well there will be surface temp issues, multiple boundary layer issues. Seems like distant memory when we actually had a pure snow event.
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The last such event I’ve seen here in Fayetteville is Feb 11 2014, most of the big dogs here are typically messy & I don’t recall an event since that hasn’t had sleet involved at some point
 
Webberweather53 said:
The last such event I’ve seen here in Fayetteville is Feb 11 2014, most of the big dogs here are typically messy & I don’t recall an event since that hasn’t had sleet involved at some point
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I don't remember Jan 17-18 2018 storm having any sleet. then again if you are referring to the Fayetteville area that storm wasn't really considered a "Big Dog there"
 
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