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Tropical TS Henri
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Probably not a huge deal but seeing all these models initialize a little N/NE of the actual center certainly does make one think LI might be square in the cross hairs on this one.
06z EPS and again looks like the center is actually a little S/SW of initialization which I think would argue the more left track. Today's evolution of Henri and model runs going to be interesting, several members putting LI in the right quadrant
Interesting to note models coming in to the northeast mainly keep precip shield to the west of the cyclone. This is also while the storm is weakening on approach. It’ll certainly be interesting seeing a storm or cane hit NE just don’t know how big of an impact it’ll have.
Thor
Member
Brent
Member
A little west again
Well Maxar has spoken, this ain't good.....
JB calling for CAT3, landfall as a 1
Geez that icon run with the last second NW bend and landfall around nyc
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Cold water in late August ? That's hard to believe. Isn't water almost at its warmest now ?
Thor
Member
Brent
Member
Yeah it's like a wall basically
Impressive expansion to the north over the past few hours
There will be colder water but, you can also see the energy from the trough, that cuts off and eventually pulls this NW, being injected into Henri on it's approach to land and probably transitioning at that time but will still be a very formidable cyclone for them.
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Yeah it seems like a case of how far west and how much interaction between upper low and Henri at this point.
BHS1975
Member
BHS1975
Member
Storm surge will be massive.
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mydoortotheworld
Member
Probably not as bad as Sandy?
BHS1975
Member
Lol much worse with the dome of water piling up.
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BHS1975
Member
Canes pile up more water due to tight gradient and smaller core.
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These slow inches west make the impact even greater with more of the coast in the right front quadrant for surge and the taller buildings closer to the core where they can realize stronger wind vs 10m
Henry2326
Member
BHS1975
Member
HRRR is very good with tracks.
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BHS1975
Member
Maybe shear and dry air will weaken him some before landfall.
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Ukie west also, trend is not good for NYC
BHS1975
Member
The problem is the trough that causes it to hook back into the coast is also going to inject energy into the storm causing it to lose tropical characteristics but keep strength.
and that’s only 48 hours from now… how long does it take to evacuate areas of New York City that are most susceptible to surge??
Wonder how covid protocols will interfere with that
Brent
Member
Apparently the GIV data doomed the northeast yikes
Well I think that just leaves the Euro
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
From a fish storm to Broadway in a matter of days. Henri opted for the bigger stage.
BHS1975
Member
Not gonna be many fish storms this year.
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Looks like we may be seeing an eye on IR? Visible doesn't look that way
snowlover91
Member
Here’s a high res SST map. Once Henri gets to 39N temps drop rapidly but it won’t be far from land by then either. If it comes in around NYC the water is actually a bit warmer there vs further east.