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Tropical TS Henri

No shortage of storms to track. Looks like another big area of disturbed wx/wave out in the eastern MDR as well

1629111680895.png
 
1. 12Z EPS is pretty much nonthreatening to the US unlike the 0Z.

2. 12Z UKMET: comes slowly west for 3 days and then turns back safely OTS:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 63.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2021 0 31.9N 63.0W 1013 23
0000UTC 17.08.2021 12 31.0N 63.2W 1012 24
1200UTC 17.08.2021 24 30.7N 63.8W 1012 25
0000UTC 18.08.2021 36 30.7N 65.0W 1012 26
1200UTC 18.08.2021 48 30.7N 66.6W 1014 26
0000UTC 19.08.2021 60 31.1N 68.2W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2021 72 31.1N 69.6W 1013 25
0000UTC 20.08.2021 84 31.7N 70.1W 1011 27
1200UTC 20.08.2021 96 32.9N 69.9W 1010 29
0000UTC 21.08.2021 108 34.4N 68.4W 1009 30
1200UTC 21.08.2021 120 35.6N 65.7W 1010 29
0000UTC 22.08.2021 132 35.9N 62.3W 1010 29
1200UTC 22.08.2021 144 35.0N 59.1W 1010 30
 
We have Henri

Henri (ahn-REE) becomes
the eighth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This
is the fourth-earliest eighth storm on record with only 2020,
2005, and 1936 having the eighth-named storm form earlier in the
season.
 
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_84.png
Interesting that 18z RGEM and CMC take Grace further north than other models Fwiw. I know it solid on going to Mexico, but I wouldn't be suprise if models goes further north in the near future.
 
Despite the current "non-threatening" look on most of the models & their respective ensembles, given Henri's intensification trends over the last day or so, odds of it getting uncomfortably close to the E US coast are starting to increase somewhat. Notice the short-term trend on the GEFS:

 
Latest GEFS plots are a bit too close to the NC coast, models have had a right/east bias this season with storms like Grace/Fred and so far with Henri that trend seems to still be the case.
1629231215866.png

Here's the model bias charts for Henri.
1629231346839.png

Here's Grace.
1629231367303.png
 
There is a fair amount of spread in exactly when
and where Henri makes this turn and the GFS and EC ensembles have
some members not far offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Overall, the guidance has shifted westward again this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly from days 3 to 5.

204104_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Brent said:
There is a fair amount of spread in exactly when
and where Henri makes this turn and the GFS and EC ensembles have
some members not far offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Overall, the guidance has shifted westward again this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly from days 3 to 5.

View attachment 88576
Click to expand...
This one, Brent, has some possibility of causing some NC ruckus yet ...

wg8dlm5-1.GIF
 
SD said:
Wonder how long before this makes wxtwitter
View attachment 88610
Click to expand...
The GFS shows the same thing. Interesting to see what the 0z GFS says.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png
 
Oz gfs is about 75 miles southwest of the 18z at the recurve point. A few more shifts like that and the OBX to NE will need to watch it. 0z brings a weakening hurricane into RI
 
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