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Tropical TS Henri

metwannabe said:
Still a ways out but we're not talking la la land here and the threat for that region seems to be increasing bigly.
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Yeah no kidding day 4-5 is kind of oh poop this is real time. Like was said earlier in this thread probably need to get some recon missions asap. That gfs run would be highly problematic from NYC to BOS.

I see the nhc discussion says missions are planned
 
SD said:
Yeah no kidding day 4-5 is kind of oh poop this is real time. Like was said earlier in this thread probably need to get some recon missions asap. That gfs run would be highly problematic from NYC to BOS
Click to expand...

Yeah need upper level data too, sample the ridge etc.....in the meantime Henri continues to look to be improving his overall structure in spite of the shear...
 
Webberweather53 said:
500mb composite for the day of and 2 days leading up to landfall for every New England hurricane since 1851 (also including Sandy & Irene) (17, 3 days per storm >> N = 51). The global mean was removed for each individual subset of data prior to combining into the mean anomaly and I overlaid the location of the ridge and trough in python.

View attachment 88653
Click to expand...

The 48-hr trend on the GEFS is projecting onto this composite, hence the westward trend

1629304618807.png
 
nyc can’t handle a tropical depression, this would be catastrophic and us tax payers would pay for flood damages
 
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12Z UKMET: Nantucket to Cape Cod most threatened

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.9N 66.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021



LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND

VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)

-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------

1200UTC 18.08.2021 0 29.9N 66.1W 1004 40

0000UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.7N 68.4W 999 51

1200UTC 19.08.2021 24 29.5N 70.6W 987 61

0000UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.5N 72.5W 983 63

1200UTC 20.08.2021 48 30.0N 73.9W 981 65

0000UTC 21.08.2021 60 31.3N 74.3W 976 68

1200UTC 21.08.2021 72 33.7N 73.2W 961 85

0000UTC 22.08.2021 84 37.4N 71.3W 960 81

1200UTC 22.08.2021 96 41.1N 70.2W 962 79 near Nantucket

0000UTC 23.08.2021 108 42.4N 69.9W 986 46 near Cape Cod

1200UTC 23.08.2021 120 43.0N 68.0W 996 35

0000UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.4N 65.5W 1003 27

1200UTC 24.08.2021 144 44.2N 62.5W 1005 25
 
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Webberweather53 said:
500mb composite for the day of and 2 days leading up to landfall for every New England hurricane since 1851 (also including Sandy & Irene) (17, 3 days per storm >> N = 51). The global mean was removed for each individual subset of data prior to combining into the mean anomaly and I overlaid the location of the ridge and trough in python.

View attachment 88653
Click to expand...
Very similar to my ERA-5 composite of MA.
ACE64CB4-9EF3-4E09-A77F-B38424857D34.jpeg
 
Oooof

29117c30bb11b433f0cfd02d3682ab84.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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