Interestingly the 18z GFS shifted east but it's the 18z and it's interesting to see if the 0z continues the trend east.
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When does the upper data start making its entry into the models?
Since you mentioned it... The NAM is so fun.Forgive me for i know I have used a forbidden model for the tropics but the 3k nam so far is a pretty significant SW shift through 28 hours.
NHC track actually didn't shift more west and may have actually gone a hair east at the end but again until we get recon data I wouldn't etch anything in stone yetView attachment 88714
Shear really taking a toll on Henri overnight which should ensure well off the OBX. Also no model or ensemble member even brushes OBX now but the threat for NY to NE is very real, again as noted by eps strength dependent
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Yep no doubt and no way all models are off that much, it is interesting though that it is a little more south than they estimated and continues to move s of due west, I guess any deviation closer to the coast initially becomes more problematic in NE laterYeah unless the models miss the trough digging as deep as they have it then this stays well offshore OBX
Yep no doubt and no way all models are off that much, it is interesting though that it is a little more south than they estimated and continues to move s of due west, I guess any deviation closer to the coast initially becomes more problematic in NE later
The GMI and ASCAT data revealed that the center is slightly farther
south than previously estimated, and Henri has been moving south of
due west