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Tropical TS Henri

SD said:
Looks like we may be seeing an eye on IR? Visible doesn't look that way
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Man satellite is so deceiving, visible looks like the llc center might still be closer to the NW edge of the CDO. Why do I feel like recon should be working overtime on this one?
 
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 73.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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Henri close to becoming a hurricane.
 
All the NAMsFBEA564B-4E8C-4CBF-BD42-898215989756.png2495BF86-9C84-4592-BD89-52EFD08A6759.png9AA8FE06-2E31-4963-B6FE-0FACE0A6DCA7.png
 
snowlover91 said:
Here’s a high res SST map. Once Henri gets to 39N temps drop rapidly but it won’t be far from land by then either. If it comes in around NYC the water is actually a bit warmer there vs further east.View attachment 88822
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I wonder with the new models bringing it in further southwest, does the trough push energy into sooner and start it transition to subtropical or extra tropical sooner? If it does then the cooler SST’s might not have much impact
 
...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 73.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the south shore of Long
Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, the north shore of
Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point, from Greenwich,
Connecticut to Chatham, Massachusetts, including Nantucket,
Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the south shore of Long Island
from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point, for the north shore of Long
Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point, and from New
Haven, Connecticut, to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island.

152236_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Didn't even realize until 20 minutes ago that Henri is going to strike the northeast.

Seems like it's possible that the impact could get as significant as Sandy's impact as well.
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Pulling up the livestream of local NYC news broadcasts, there are many New Yorkers that are shocked to find out they may be dealing with a hurricane in less than 48 hours
 
DR Knab on TWC is saying he would not be suprised to see some RI tonight and tomorrow and could easily pass the 85 mph strength that is forecasted as of now. Which would cause bigger implications and he is also concerned about the slow movement after landfall!
 
Tarheel1 said:
DR Knab on TWC is saying he would not be suprised to see some RI tonight and tomorrow and could easily pass the 85 mph strength that is forecasted as of now. Which would cause bigger implications and he is also concerned about the slow movement after landfall!
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This is something JB has been talking about as well. Also if you look at the new track from NHC, it was it hitting Long Island at an angle from the SSE. Most hurricane hits in that region come from the SSW. This one is coming in at nearly a perfect perpendicular approach… this just adds to storm surge
 
This I don’t believe can be compared to sandy .. sandy got down to 940 and was a Frankenstein storm with strength and widespread swath of wind causing massive surge and wind impacts maybe Henry is similar but in a much much smaller radius which keeps it out of sandy tier IMO unless something drastically changes
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This I don’t believe can be compared to sandy .. sandy got down to 940 and was a Frankenstein storm with strength and widespread swath of wind causing massive surge and wind impacts maybe Henry is similar but in a much much smaller radius which keeps it out of sandy tier IMO unless something drastically changes
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I agree that this won’t be on the same level as Sandy in terms of overall damage. This storm won’t effect as large an area due to not having as expansive a wind field. However the area that get the main impacts could have worse damage in localized spots. Also this appears to be coming at an angle that could produce the worst storm surge that the NYC metro area has experienced in at least 60 years, which would lead to huge economic impact. A lot will depend on if this is coming in at high tide or low tide.
 
Chazwin said:
I agree that this won’t be on the same level as Sandy in terms of overall damage. This storm won’t effect as large an area due to not having as expansive a wind field. However the area that get the main impacts could have worse damage in localized spots. Also this appears to be coming at an angle that could produce the worst storm surge that the NYC metro area has experienced in at least 60 years, which would lead to huge economic impact. A lot will depend on if this is coming in at high tide or low tide.
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Valid .. also have to think about how sandy was strengthening and henri will be weakening
 
Chazwin said:
I agree that this won’t be on the same level as Sandy in terms of overall damage. This storm won’t effect as large an area due to not having as expansive a wind field. However the area that get the main impacts could have worse damage in localized spots. Also this appears to be coming at an angle that could produce the worst storm surge that the NYC metro area has experienced in at least 60 years, which would lead to huge economic impact. A lot will depend on if this is coming in at high tide or low tide.
Click to expand...

Also, the total rainfall quite possibly, if not likely, will end up being the biggest story as is often the case with slow moving storms. The flooding from rainfall could potentially be quite damaging and dangerous in some low lying locations.
 
GaWx said:
Also, the total rainfall quite possibly, if not likely, will end up being the biggest story as is often the case with slow moving storms. The flooding from rainfall could potentially be quite damaging and dangerous in some low lying locations.
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This may be the big thing that we’re not hearing that much about yet. The benchmark storm for that region when it comes to rainfall from tropical systems is Agnes back in the 70s. This storm is going to have a slow movement that we simply don’t usually see in that region
 
Henri and Sandy are two different beasts and different times of the year that shouldn’t be compared. Henri imo will be known as more tropical and hit stronger. Who wins in the damage column is likely based on if Henri impacts NYC more than Sandy. Sandy will forever be known as more widespread given the heavy snow down to NC but could be eclipsed in $ based on storm surge and NYC flooding. Given they have had major flooding issues this year I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be a historic event.
 
I was doing undergrad work in marine biology when Hurricane Bob hit Cape Cod in ‘91. We went down to the Cape about 24 hours after impact to collect data. It was so surreal to see sailboats in the middle of the wooded areas well over a mile inland, the damage was just stunning, and there was no power the entire 3 days we were down there, I remember it being so hot and stifling! I simply can’t imagine that level of impact on Long Island!
 
MamaJen said:
I was doing undergrad work in marine biology when Hurricane Bob hit Cape Cod in ‘91. We went down to the Cape about 24 hours after impact to collect data. It was so surreal to see sailboats in the middle of the wooded areas well over a mile inland, the damage was just stunning, and there was no power the entire 3 days we were down there, I remember it being so hot and stifling! I simply can’t imagine that level of impact on Long Island!
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My sister and I were actually spending a couple weeks with one of Aunt and Uncles near Providence when Bob hit in 1991. I remember just how quickly the weather went downhill that day due to the fast movement. This storm’s slow movement will definitely be a different experience for people up there
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Henri and Sandy are two different beasts and different times of the year that shouldn’t be compared. Henri imo will be known as more tropical and hit stronger. Who wins in the damage column is likely based on if Henri impacts NYC more than Sandy. Sandy will forever be known as more widespread given the heavy snow down to NC but could be eclipsed in $ based on storm surge and NYC flooding. Given they have had major flooding issues this year I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be a historic event.
Click to expand...
Everything compares to everything now and is almost guaranteed to be blamed on climate change. It's the world we live in.
 
MamaJen said:
I was doing undergrad work in marine biology when Hurricane Bob hit Cape Cod in ‘91. We went down to the Cape about 24 hours after impact to collect data. It was so surreal to see sailboats in the middle of the wooded areas well over a mile inland, the damage was just stunning, and there was no power the entire 3 days we were down there, I remember it being so hot and stifling! I simply can’t imagine that level of impact on Long Island!
Click to expand...

George Costanza? Jk
 
I don't think it'll be like Sandy but the slow motion will make everything that much worse. This will be moving 20 mph slower than the slowest hurricane up there. The water i do agree will be the biggest problem but the winds up there especially prolonged can cause a lot of damage too because the infrastructure is so old. I believe there was issues from Isaias last year and it was long falling apart when it got up there (made landfall in NC for reference)

Im also still a little concerned about NYC if the west trends don't stop that angle would be a nightmare for surge in the harbor but hopefully it stays east
 
Last edited:
...HENRI CONTINUING NORTHWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Warning between
Greenwich, CT to Flushing, NY and Flushing to Oyster Bay, NY.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode
Island, east to Woods Hole, Massachusetts, including Block Island
and Martha's Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in
effect west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Manasquan Inlet,
New Jersey, including New York City.

Track continues to shift west closer to NYC212446.png
 
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