You can already see the kicker taking shape and sliding south
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Tropical TS Henri
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
brendan123
Member
On vacation in Buxton on Hatteras Island until Sunday… high surf is expected and some overwash on Highway 12 is possible, but no direct effects in terms of wind or rain are expected at this point at least.
Brent
Member
Brent
Member
I have access to a lot of tools in here! Ones from LL and one from WB
Brent
Member
0z tropical models are actually pretty clustered around Boston and I believe they have GIV data 
18z EPS is ugly too
18z EPS is ugly too
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Luckily I think cold water is going to help big time with this .. it’s just as deadly as the shredder to tropical systems
Brent
Member
I wouldn't completely buy into the cold water if it's transitioning to post tropical it can strengthen that way too
Now I do agree it'll probably be slowly weakening near the coast but I don't think you'll see it just fall apart
And honestly the water is probably gonna be a bigger problem than the wind
Now I do agree it'll probably be slowly weakening near the coast but I don't think you'll see it just fall apart
And honestly the water is probably gonna be a bigger problem than the wind
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Brent
Member
Anyway 70 mph landfall in Massachusetts on the 11pm
brendan123
Member
Some of the western 18z euro ensembles look somewhat problematic for me… but still betting more east than that.
Brent
Member
Quite a simulated satellite appearance on the GFS right on the NHC track
Almost looks like it’s transitioning to sub-tropical at that point. Notice how the higher cloud tops are beginning to move away from the center
Hurricane Watch for New England. Means more routine updates for us from NHC
Why can't we use the 3K NAM again? ?
it’s not a tropical model
Henri is slowing down about to make that turn and you can see our ull diving in to keep it off the coast then almost capture it and slingshot it into the NE.
Bannerdude
Member
Nearly every model shows a landfalling storm somewhere between Martha's Vineyard and the western tip of Long Island
