Tropical TS Henri

[BirdManDoomW]

 

[Metwannabe]

Nearly every model shows a landfalling storm somewhere between Martha's Vineyard and the western tip of Long Island


View attachment 88794

Probably not a huge deal but seeing all these models initialize a little N/NE of the actual center certainly does make one think LI might be square in the cross hairs on this one.

 

[Metwannabe]

06z EPS and again looks like the center is actually a little S/SW of initialization which I think would argue the more left track. Today's evolution of Henri and model runs going to be interesting, several members putting LI in the right quadrant

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Interesting to note models coming in to the northeast mainly keep precip shield to the west of the cyclone. This is also while the storm is weakening on approach. It’ll certainly be interesting seeing a storm or cane hit NE just don’t know how big of an impact it’ll have.

 

[Thor]

 

[Brent]

A little west again

 

[Metwannabe]

Well Maxar has spoken, this ain't good.....

 

[BirdManDoomW]

JB calling for CAT3, landfall as a 1

 

[SD]

Geez that icon run with the last second NW bend and landfall around nyc

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

I wouldn't completely buy into the cold water if it's transitioning to post tropical it can strengthen that way too

Now I do agree it'll probably be slowly weakening near the coast but I don't think you'll see it just fall apart

And honestly the water is probably gonna be a bigger problem than the wind

Cold water in late August ? That's hard to believe. Isn't water almost at its warmest now ?

 

[Thor]

Cold water in late August ? That's hard to believe. Isn't water almost at its warmest now ?

 

[Brent]

View attachment 88802

Yeah it's like a wall basically

 

[Metwannabe]

Geez that icon run with the last second NW bend and landfall around nyc

And the loop inland, very problematic track right there

 

[SD]

And the loop inland, very problematic track right there

Impressive expansion to the north over the past few hours

 

[Metwannabe]

There will be colder water but, you can also see the energy from the trough, that cuts off and eventually pulls this NW, being injected into Henri on it's approach to land and probably transitioning at that time but will still be a very formidable cyclone for them.

 

[Metwannabe]

Impressive expansion to the north over the past few hours

GFS drives it fairly far inland too, not as far west as ICON but seems less and less likely this stays safely ots

edit: GFS was a decent shift west

 

[SD]

GFS drives it fairly far inland too, not as far west as ICON but seems less and less likely this stays safely ots

edit: GFS was a decent shift west

Yeah it seems like a case of how far west and how much interaction between upper low and Henri at this point.

 

[Metwannabe]

Yeah it seems like a case of how far west and how much interaction between upper low and Henri at this point.

And fwiw, the long range HRRR was hooking hard left at the end of it's run very ICON like

 

[BHS1975]

And fwiw, the long range HRRR was hooking hard left at the end of it's run very ICON like

Yeap HRRR is catastrophic for NYC.


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[BHS1975]

Storm surge will be massive.


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