Brent
Member
modernweenie
-
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Tropical TS Henri
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Shaggy
Member
Henri sure likes the Dmax help with big blow ups of storms. Looking strong on satellite again tonight.
Don't think it can come much further west but that trend though on the GFS
EPS and GEFS, all keep it off the coast of NC but a few stragglers get close and of course the GEFS shows that NE threat. Man if it turns later than anticipated the OBX gonna go in pucker mode
Yeah may actually end up seeing some rain associated with the system reaching the coast. I'll say it again we dodged a big one here. This has become a legitimate threat to the NE coast as well
Yeah no doubt we dodged a bullet here but I don't think NE will be as fortunate and NHC starting to monitor that too, I'll give it 24 hrs before the NE hype mode goes into overdrive.
the best approach at this point is
to base the NHC forecast on the better performing multi-model
consensus guidance, which has once again shifted a bit to the left
of the previous track forecast. I think it's worth noting that the
GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over
eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward
toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or
shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on
subsequent advisories.
Due to the increased uncertainty in the track forecast, interests
along the New England coast should monitor the progress of Henri.
Shaggy
Member
Downeastnc
Member
Seems like a long shot for this to be anything more than a OBX brush, but if those members on the ensembles keep shifting west ? , the trend is there the question is how many if any more shifts west could there be....what role does Fred play in all this, seems like the rem low is stronger and moving a bit more north than modeled a few days back...and the ridge over Henri looks a bit stronger and this is probably what is causing the west trend in the ensembles...still hard to think the models are off enough this range to get the center of Henri over any part of NC....
Shaggy
Member
We need more Ballon launches and some GIV flights to sample the trough and the high
Downeastnc
Member
06Z Euro Ens making me go hmmmmmm....
Stronger means more west, those 2 outlier members along the OBX are the strongest..... that needs to be watched. Dang
Yeah it's got about 36 hours where if it goes bombs away it'll drive well SW. I'm not sure it can with the potential for some north shear. Then that opens the door for it to chase convection some
Hrrr says shear wins
Downeastnc
Member
Looks pretty darn good currently given shear.....tilted storms are all the rage this year....
I really don’t expect henri to make a run for NC it’s much more probable that this is a NE issue .. and even then it looks like as it approaches the storm is weakening and moving much faster so it’ll leave quicker than say a sandy … would be impactful but probably not memorable
Yeah it would be nice to get recon in to see how tilted it is if at all. You can see the impact of the shear when storms to the north pop up but it seems like the cdo is doing a good job fighting itLooks pretty darn good currently given shear.....tilted storms are all the rage this year....
Brent
Member
Eastern New England now in the cone
One complicating factor is that several of the models show
a ridge building over the northwestern Atlantic and Atlantic Canada,
which could cause the storm to stay on a more northward track closer
to New England than currently forecast. The spread in the models
for Henri's future track is quite large, with some guidance as far
west as Long Island and as far east as 62W longitude. Overall, the
models continue to walk left each cycle, and the NHC track forecast
has again been shifted in that direction. NOAA Gulfstream IV
missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled,
and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models
handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the
longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for
additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast
cycles.
One complicating factor is that several of the models show
a ridge building over the northwestern Atlantic and Atlantic Canada,
which could cause the storm to stay on a more northward track closer
to New England than currently forecast. The spread in the models
for Henri's future track is quite large, with some guidance as far
west as Long Island and as far east as 62W longitude. Overall, the
models continue to walk left each cycle, and the NHC track forecast
has again been shifted in that direction. NOAA Gulfstream IV
missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled,
and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models
handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the
longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for
additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast
cycles.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah its the little things that matter and if it is tilted to the south a bit then convective tugging should pull the LLC with it, this would in theory at least allow it to get further west....climo says this thing is a fish at least for NC.....
this mimic run says Henri was a cane for a bit early lol....banding improving a lot on the south side, shear effects evident on the NW quad.....left side tab says mimic thought I linked to that page
UW-CIMSS "TCTrak" Tropical Cyclone Tracker for Storm 08L
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
500mb composite for the day of and 2 days leading up to landfall for every New England hurricane since 1851 (also including Sandy & Irene) (17, 3 days per storm >> N = 51). The global mean was removed for each individual subset of data prior to combining into the mean anomaly and I overlaid the location of the ridge and trough in python.
Icon loop over cape cod