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Tropical TS Henri

BHS1975 said:
Oooof

29117c30bb11b433f0cfd02d3682ab84.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yeah but that is still all relative.....its above normal off NE but still colder than needed to support a tropical system...
 
Recon going to investigate Henri tomorrow.
TROPICAL STORM HENRI
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0108A HENRI B. NOAA9 0208A HENRI
C. 19/1500Z C. 19/1730Z
D. 30.0N 70.6W D. NA
E. 19/1630Z TO 19/2000Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 43
A. 20/1200Z A. 20/1200Z
B. NOAA9 0308A HENRI B. NOAA3 0408A HENRI
C. 20/0530Z C. 20/0800Z
D. NA D. 30.7N 72.4W
E. NA E. 20/1000Z TO 20/1400Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 72
A. 20/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0508A HENRI
C. 20/0900Z
D. 30.7N 72.4W
E. 20/1030Z TO 20/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON HENRI AT 20/2330Z.
C. TWO MORE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND
HENRI FOR THE 21/0000Z AND 21/1200Z SYNOPTIC TIMES,
DEPARTING KLAL AT 20/1730Z AND 21/0503Z.
D. NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO HENRI DEPARTING
KLAL AT 20/2000Z AND 21/0800Z.
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Interesting to note the Hurricane models
HMON 12z follows suit in hitting Long Island .. but the storm is significantly weak
HWRF 12z also follows with a Long Island hit but definitely stronger but significantly weakening upon arrival
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah but that is still all relative.....its above normal off NE but still colder than needed to support a tropical system...
Click to expand...

I think upper level dynamics will give Henri an extra kick if the GFS solution comes to fruition. 200Mb charts shows a negatively tilted trough through the Carolinas. Makes for an interesting setup.
 
I wouldn’t rule out the chance it hits the OBX at the rate we are going.
 
...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 67.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

The models continue their westward
shift, and the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted in that
direction and no longer shows a northeastward motion out to sea. In
particular, the westward adjustment at day 5 was a sizable 150
miles, and even with this shift the NHC forecast is still a little
to the east of some of the consensus aids. NOAA Gulfstream IV
missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled,
and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models
handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the
longer range track forecast, users should be prepared for additional
adjustments to the NHC track prediction in future forecast cycles.
 
Like that they are going to be doing special balloon launches and starting the GIV missions. This will be the most interesting time for any major shifts in the models.
 
Maybe the shear tonight will help Henri weaken some to stop these west trends and instead pull north out to sea. Yay
 
NHC track actually didn't shift more west and may have actually gone a hair east at the end but again until we get recon data I wouldn't etch anything in stone yetAL082021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Brent said:
NHC track actually didn't shift more west and may have actually gone a hair east at the end but again until we get recon data I wouldn't etch anything in stone yetView attachment 88714
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The disco sounded fun. Sat estimates are between 55kt and 80kts. That's a helluva a spread and then later they say eventual track will be based on early intensity but we have no plane data to say what it's at right now.
 
0Z UKMET: more ominous run for CT/RI/inland MA as it goes NNW to near RI/CT border and then continued NNW into west central MA

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2021 0 29.7N 68.2W 999 50
1200UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.5N 70.6W 984 64
0000UTC 20.08.2021 24 29.4N 72.7W 978 74
1200UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.7N 74.3W 977 66
0000UTC 21.08.2021 48 30.6N 74.7W 974 73
1200UTC 21.08.2021 60 32.7N 73.9W 967 79
0000UTC 22.08.2021 72 36.1N 72.4W 958 85
1200UTC 22.08.2021 84 39.9N 71.5W 958 81
0000UTC 23.08.2021 96 42.0N 72.0W 984 44 (CT/MA border)
1200UTC 23.08.2021 108 43.0N 72.4W 1001 25
0000UTC 24.08.2021 120 43.2N 71.8W 1005 19
1200UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.8N 69.4W 1007 19
0000UTC 25.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING
 
And here is a 0Z UKMET image: Henri is then moving NNW as it just misses the far eastern tip of Long Island

download (1).png
 
metwannabe said:
Shear really taking a toll on Henri overnight which should ensure well off the OBX. Also no model or ensemble member even brushes OBX now but the threat for NY to NE is very real, again as noted by eps strength dependent

View attachment 88718
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Yeah unless the models miss the trough digging as deep as they have it then this stays well offshore OBX
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah unless the models miss the trough digging as deep as they have it then this stays well offshore OBX
Click to expand...
Yep no doubt and no way all models are off that much, it is interesting though that it is a little more south than they estimated and continues to move s of due west, I guess any deviation closer to the coast initially becomes more problematic in NE later

The GMI and ASCAT data revealed that the center is slightly farther
south than previously estimated, and Henri has been moving south of
due west
 
This could be a big problem for the NE and now only about 3 days out. HWRF has it diving inland and just kind of spinning out over land.
hwrf_mslp_wind_08L_29.pnggfs_mslp_uv850_neus_15.png

We will never hear the end of it.....Sandy
 
metwannabe said:
Yep no doubt and no way all models are off that much, it is interesting though that it is a little more south than they estimated and continues to move s of due west, I guess any deviation closer to the coast initially becomes more problematic in NE later

The GMI and ASCAT data revealed that the center is slightly farther
south than previously estimated, and Henri has been moving south of
due west
Click to expand...

Yeah wish they been flying some GIV missions sooner.
 
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