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Tropical TS Henri

EPS and GEFS, all keep it off the coast of NC but a few stragglers get close and of course the GEFS shows that NE threat. Man if it turns later than anticipated the OBX gonna go in pucker mode

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Reactions: SD
metwannabe said:
Don't think it can come much further west but that trend though on the GFS

View attachment 88642
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Yeah may actually end up seeing some rain associated with the system reaching the coast. I'll say it again we dodged a big one here. This has become a legitimate threat to the NE coast as well
 
SD said:
Yeah may actually end up seeing some rain associated with the system reaching the coast. I'll say it again we dodged a big one here. This has become a legitimate threat to the NE coast as well
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Yeah no doubt we dodged a bullet here but I don't think NE will be as fortunate and NHC starting to monitor that too, I'll give it 24 hrs before the NE hype mode goes into overdrive.

the best approach at this point is
to base the NHC forecast on the better performing multi-model
consensus guidance, which has once again shifted a bit to the left
of the previous track forecast. I think it's worth noting that the
GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over
eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward
toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or
shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on
subsequent advisories.

Due to the increased uncertainty in the track forecast, interests
along the New England coast should monitor the progress of Henri.
 
SD said:
Yeah may actually end up seeing some rain associated with the system reaching the coast. I'll say it again we dodged a big one here. This has become a legitimate threat to the NE coast as well
Click to expand...

Not sure we could see enough changes to the pattern but a slower, weaker or less digging could still allow some more west shifts.
 
Seems like a long shot for this to be anything more than a OBX brush, but if those members on the ensembles keep shifting west ? , the trend is there the question is how many if any more shifts west could there be....what role does Fred play in all this, seems like the rem low is stronger and moving a bit more north than modeled a few days back...and the ridge over Henri looks a bit stronger and this is probably what is causing the west trend in the ensembles...still hard to think the models are off enough this range to get the center of Henri over any part of NC....
 
metwannabe said:
Stronger means more west, those 2 outlier members along the OBX are the strongest..... that needs to be watched. Dang
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Yeah it's got about 36 hours where if it goes bombs away it'll drive well SW. I'm not sure it can with the potential for some north shear. Then that opens the door for it to chase convection some
 
SD said:
Yeah it's got about 36 hours where if it goes bombs away it'll drive well SW. I'm not sure it can with the potential for some north shear. Then that opens the door for it to chase convection some
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Looks pretty darn good currently given shear.....tilted storms are all the rage this year....

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Satellite Loop for | Tropical Tidbits

Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
 
I really don’t expect henri to make a run for NC it’s much more probable that this is a NE issue .. and even then it looks like as it approaches the storm is weakening and moving much faster so it’ll leave quicker than say a sandy … would be impactful but probably not memorable
 
Downeastnc said:
Looks pretty darn good currently given shear.....tilted storms are all the rage this year....

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Satellite Loop for | Tropical Tidbits

Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
Click to expand...
Yeah it would be nice to get recon in to see how tilted it is if at all. You can see the impact of the shear when storms to the north pop up but it seems like the cdo is doing a good job fighting it
 
Eastern New England now in the cone143722_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
One complicating factor is that several of the models show
a ridge building over the northwestern Atlantic and Atlantic Canada,
which could cause the storm to stay on a more northward track closer
to New England than currently forecast. The spread in the models
for Henri's future track is quite large, with some guidance as far
west as Long Island and as far east as 62W longitude. Overall, the
models continue to walk left each cycle, and the NHC track forecast
has again been shifted in that direction. NOAA Gulfstream IV
missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled,
and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models
handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the
longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for
additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast
cycles.
 
SD said:
Yeah it would be nice to get recon in to see how tilted it is if at all. You can see the impact of the shear when storms to the north pop up but it seems like the cdo is doing a good job fighting it
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Yeah its the little things that matter and if it is tilted to the south a bit then convective tugging should pull the LLC with it, this would in theory at least allow it to get further west....climo says this thing is a fish at least for NC.....

this mimic run says Henri was a cane for a bit early lol....banding improving a lot on the south side, shear effects evident on the NW quad.....left side tab says mimic thought I linked to that page


UW-CIMSS "TCTrak" Tropical Cyclone Tracker for Storm 08L

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
 
500mb composite for the day of and 2 days leading up to landfall for every New England hurricane since 1851 (also including Sandy & Irene) (17, 3 days per storm >> N = 51). The global mean was removed for each individual subset of data prior to combining into the mean anomaly and I overlaid the location of the ridge and trough in python.

1629300402372.png
 
Overall seems the west shifts at this latitude have stopped for now but oh boy the twitterverse is about to blow up and hype machine go brrrrr

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:oops: :oops: :oops:

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metwannabe said:
Still a ways out but we're not talking la la land here and the threat for that region seems to be increasing bigly.
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Yeah no kidding day 4-5 is kind of oh poop this is real time. Like was said earlier in this thread probably need to get some recon missions asap. That gfs run would be highly problematic from NYC to BOS.

I see the nhc discussion says missions are planned
 
SD said:
Yeah no kidding day 4-5 is kind of oh poop this is real time. Like was said earlier in this thread probably need to get some recon missions asap. That gfs run would be highly problematic from NYC to BOS
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Yeah need upper level data too, sample the ridge etc.....in the meantime Henri continues to look to be improving his overall structure in spite of the shear...
 
Webberweather53 said:
500mb composite for the day of and 2 days leading up to landfall for every New England hurricane since 1851 (also including Sandy & Irene) (17, 3 days per storm >> N = 51). The global mean was removed for each individual subset of data prior to combining into the mean anomaly and I overlaid the location of the ridge and trough in python.

View attachment 88653
Click to expand...

The 48-hr trend on the GEFS is projecting onto this composite, hence the westward trend

1629304618807.png
 
nyc can’t handle a tropical depression, this would be catastrophic and us tax payers would pay for flood damages
 
Last edited:
12Z UKMET: Nantucket to Cape Cod most threatened

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.9N 66.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021



LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND

VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)

-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------

1200UTC 18.08.2021 0 29.9N 66.1W 1004 40

0000UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.7N 68.4W 999 51

1200UTC 19.08.2021 24 29.5N 70.6W 987 61

0000UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.5N 72.5W 983 63

1200UTC 20.08.2021 48 30.0N 73.9W 981 65

0000UTC 21.08.2021 60 31.3N 74.3W 976 68

1200UTC 21.08.2021 72 33.7N 73.2W 961 85

0000UTC 22.08.2021 84 37.4N 71.3W 960 81

1200UTC 22.08.2021 96 41.1N 70.2W 962 79 near Nantucket

0000UTC 23.08.2021 108 42.4N 69.9W 986 46 near Cape Cod

1200UTC 23.08.2021 120 43.0N 68.0W 996 35

0000UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.4N 65.5W 1003 27

1200UTC 24.08.2021 144 44.2N 62.5W 1005 25
 
Last edited:
Webberweather53 said:
500mb composite for the day of and 2 days leading up to landfall for every New England hurricane since 1851 (also including Sandy & Irene) (17, 3 days per storm >> N = 51). The global mean was removed for each individual subset of data prior to combining into the mean anomaly and I overlaid the location of the ridge and trough in python.

View attachment 88653
Click to expand...
Very similar to my ERA-5 composite of MA.
ACE64CB4-9EF3-4E09-A77F-B38424857D34.jpeg
 
Oooof

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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